Many people have said this, many more have thought this.
So indeed, this might be a good short term play, simply because I think a lot of people are going to snap buy if and when it hits the $10-$20 range, which should probably force a mini surge until most are satisfied with tripling their money or whatever and sell.
If you're going to do this, my advice would be to jump in no higher than $20 (and wait to see if it stabilizes or keeps falling), and then if it rises, CLOSELY monitor it and sell at the first sign of a substantial drop. I don't think anyone is dumb enough to invest at $20 hoping to see it at $250 again, but I bet a lot of people are looking to see it back to $70-$120, so if you can beat these people to the punch and sell just at the beginning of the next selloff, you will make money.
I will probably try this approach myself, but obviously I have to wait until it falls farther.
I set $20 because bitcoin sat at around $17 for a long time before rocketing up in recent weeks.
Many who followed bitcoin regretted not buying them when they were that "cheap", but were too scared to jump aboard as they shot up in value, fearing the peak had already been reached.
If it retreats back to the $20ish range, many will see it as a "do over". They get to buy back in where they first wished they could have,
Some, in fact, likely see $15-$20 as bitcoin's "real" value, as it was the last level where bitcoin had any degree of stability. Of course, bitcoin has no real value, but a lot see the recent run-up as just fluff, and believe that a return to its pre-run-up $17 value is a likely stopping point for the decline.
And while this is unscientific and informal, I can't tell you how many people I've talked to privately who say, "If it ever falls to [insert number between 10 and 20] dollars, I'm buying some and taking a chance!" I had the exact same thought without ever hearing anyone say this, and I can imagine that a large number of people are just waiting for bitcoin to become "reasonably priced" again to get in on the second run-up.
I'm not saying I'm sure it will happen, but I'm willing to throw some non-life-changing money into it if this occurs.
Any easy money to be made has already been made. You guys missed the boat. Whatever you are planning to do has already been thought of by hundreds of thousands of other people. Probably with way more experience and knowledge in things like this than you. Stay away.
Id put bitcoins organic value at about $12. Ill buy at single digits and not a penny over $9.99.
Also Id caution against setting a value based on previous trends simply because people have first hand evidence of the corruption and incompetence that constitutes the entire bitcoin currency exchange architecture.
"Birds born in a cage think flying is an illness." - Alejandro Jodorowsky
"America is not so much a nightmare as a non-dream. The American non-dream is precisely a move to wipe the dream out of existence. The dream is a spontaneous happening and therefore dangerous to a control system set up by the non-dreamers." -- William S. Burroughs
Interesting view on the extrinsic value. While there is no government interference, bitcoins clearly have some value as an enabler for underground activities like poker and drugs. The main issue to me is that what is to stop someone inventing buttcoins, titcoins or bitnotes etc. based on the same technology?
I think this is the ultimate killer for any crypto-currency becoming mainstream.
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If you own any BTC, fear not. I sold mine today at 107, so expect it to jump back to 260 any day now.
@yaahello - You're welcome. I do it for the kids.
Here's an interesting article regarding MoneyGram and Western Union looking into the possibility in the future of allowing customers to use BitCoins as a currency. Although I think its very unlikely to happen due to its intrinsic value, Bitcoins are getting the attention of many companies around the World.
http://www.foxbusiness.com/news/2013...ntcmp=trending
Really didnt see that coming.
"Birds born in a cage think flying is an illness." - Alejandro Jodorowsky
"America is not so much a nightmare as a non-dream. The American non-dream is precisely a move to wipe the dream out of existence. The dream is a spontaneous happening and therefore dangerous to a control system set up by the non-dreamers." -- William S. Burroughs
My guess is after the run up to 250 a lot of people wanted to buy Bitcoin, and they are just now getting their accounts funded and able to purchase.
"Birds born in a cage think flying is an illness." - Alejandro Jodorowsky
"America is not so much a nightmare as a non-dream. The American non-dream is precisely a move to wipe the dream out of existence. The dream is a spontaneous happening and therefore dangerous to a control system set up by the non-dreamers." -- William S. Burroughs
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