*** Official Political Wagering Thread ***

[PLOL]

You can ignore the most recent Emerson polls, even though they're good for Biden. They're pretty transparently herding at the end to keep up their 538 A- rating like they always do. Very sad and pathetic. They are NOT an "A-" pollster.

thanks for the news flash saying we can ignore certain polls.

Working hard! Thank you!

[mulva]

thanks for the news flash saying we can ignore certain polls.

Working hard! Thank you!

i'm really hoping you say something smart in your next few posts. i really do not want to continue to beat you down.

[PLOL]

Working hard! Thank you!

i'm really hoping you say something smart in your next few posts. i really do not want to continue to beat you down.

Woah, I'm quoting our president. Are you saying our president isn't smart? Very disrespectful. You can just wait 52 hours to beat me down when Trump wins big.

[big dick]

Given the choice between laying 100-1 on JB winning CA I'd prefer to lay 7,8, or 9-1 on Biden winning the popular vote

Lot less risk for roughly the same value


IMO trump has about as much chance to win the national vote as he does of winning CA so why not lay 9 or 10-1 instead of 100-1?

[Daly]

Given the choice between laying 100-1 on JB winning CA I'd prefer to lay 7,8, or 9-1 on Biden winning the popular vote

Lot less risk for roughly the same value


IMO trump has about as much chance to win the national vote as he does of winning CA so why not lay 9 or 10-1 instead of 100-1?

Because he’s 10 times more likely to win the popular vote than California.

[big dick]

But I don't think he is


That's my point


If Biden loses the popular vote Then CA would have to play a pivotal role in him doing so.


Personally I never lay huge odds on any bet but that's just me . I'd rather find a +ev bet where I'm the one with the large payday if the unexpected happens

disclaimer- I'm a professional poker player and a decent gambler but not a professional sports bettor

[big dick]

Which Party Will Win The Popular Vote In The 2020 Presidential Election?
11/2/20
11:00 PM
Popular Vote Winner
Democrats -700
Republicans +425
Total votes tabulated by the Federal Election Commission for all states and the District of Columbia.



US 2020 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION -TO WIN POPULAR VOTE
Joe Biden
-871
Donald Trump
+564
Kamala Harris
+14500
Mike Pence
+200000

[Daly]

But I don't think he is

Have a hunch? Bet a bunch!

I can’t put a number on which is the better bet by the numbers. I don’t think Trump has a fucking prayer at winning the popular vote but at -800 I’m going to pass because shit happens.

Now with that being said if you offered me -800 on California I’d jump on it.

[big dick]

Trump wins the popular vote
Regardless of whether he wins the Electoral College
3 in 100
Biden wins the popular vote
Regardless of whether he wins the Electoral College
97 in 100
Trump wins more than 50% of the popular vote
Regardless of whether he wins the Electoral College
2 in 100
Biden wins more than 50% of the popular vote
Regardless of whether he wins the Electoral College
95 in 100
Trump wins in a landslide
Defined as winning the popular vote by a double-digit margin
<1 in 100
Biden wins in a landslide
Defined as winning the popular vote by a double-digit margin
27 in 100
Trump wins the popular vote but loses the Electoral College <1 in 100
Biden wins the popular vote but loses the Electoral College 8 in 100
No one wins the Electoral College
No candidate gets 270 electoral votes and Congress decides the election
<1 in 100
Trump wins at least one state that Clinton won in 2016 25 in 100
Biden wins at least one state that Trump won in 2016 98 in 100
The map stays exactly the same as it was in 2016
Each candidate wins exactly the same states that his party won in 2016
<1 in 100
The election hinges on a recount
Candidates are within half a percentage point in one or more decisive states
4 in 100

[big dick]

But sure go ahead and lay 100-1 instead of 8-1


I wouldn't bet either but like I said if I were to bet Id bet the 8.-1 on national popular vote

[Sanlmar]

Betonline

Since Monday, 85 percent of the presidential bets have been on Trump, which has greatly swung the numbers in terms of liability. As of this post, BetOnline stands to lose a sum in the low seven figures if Trump is re-elected.

“Political stances aside, we’re all rooting for the favorite next week,” Mason said. “That’s uncommon in our industry,but we need Biden in a big way.”

The 2020 Presidential Election is close to becoming the biggest decision in BetOnline’s 20-year history of bookmaking. The political betting markets this year have already surpassed the straight bet handle for Super Bowl LIV. In total, the website has booked an amount in the mid eight-figure range.

https://www.betonline.ag/news-room/p...-election-day/

[mulva]

there's no sweat. biden isn't gonna take any of those. maybe NC but that's been slowly trending trump for quite some time, so i expect trumpy to take it.

if dems think they have a chance to win those states they also have to worry about is a few other states that peeps are randomly just giving to biden where he's a 3-1 fav...but those might be closer than imagined.

make no mistake. trump has to take florida in order to be in the hunt, and i think he will win that state. if he pulls a comeback as a 2-1 dawg in penn, biden is easily in trouble.

i like trumps chances a whole lot to win the whole thing if he takes both fla and penn.....and that also includes him winning the states he's suppose to win.... i think fla is in the bag. penn might be the whole key to the election. there are some other combos that give trump the nod without penn, but those paths looks improbable.


...............so lol @ nate silver giving biden a 90% chance..get bent, silver

Based on early voting returns it looks very likely Trump wins FL. Most states are 60-40 Democrat early voting/absentee, FL is basically 5
ariz isn't looking good either for them. but the push for trump in pennsylvania is getting stronger as well.
0/50.

Another state I think Trump has wrapped up is TX. People talking about the huge early returns in Texas don’t realize that 90% of that is in person early voting. I think that isn’t the same as Democrat absentee ground game.

i think texas to biden is a pipedream. but while nothing is a lock, all the data i've seen and read makes a florida win seem like cake win, and you're still getting good odds. things did not turn out well for the dems in the early voting in some parts. so much so that it might be already over. i lose big if trump doesn't win florida

ariz is also trending trump......the biden peeps have their heads down in key states. i love seeing under performance from key demographics that he needs to win

and my god......to see all those crowds in NC. i mean, c'mon. a line 1/2 mile long line to get in to see trump.............wow..

as for penn. the overall feeling and momentum that i get is a spirited fighting chance that can go either way right now

polls..lol..just look at the rally's......also every other peep in fla has a truck with a trump flag..

[Daly]

Betonline

Since Monday, 85 percent of the presidential bets have been on Trump, which has greatly swung the numbers in terms of liability. As of this post, BetOnline stands to lose a sum in the low seven figures if Trump is re-elected.

“Political stances aside, we’re all rooting for the favorite next week,” Mason said. “That’s uncommon in our industry,but we need Biden in a big way.”

The 2020 Presidential Election is close to becoming the biggest decision in BetOnline’s 20-year history of bookmaking. The political betting markets this year have already surpassed the straight bet handle for Super Bowl LIV. In total, the website has booked an amount in the mid eight-figure range.

https://www.betonline.ag/news-room/p...-election-day/

This is quickly becoming Floyd vs McGreggor all over again.

[Sheesfaced]

Plop where you seeing the most value on predictit on election eve?

[PLOL]

Plop where you seeing the most value on predictit on election eve?

Hard to say without my crystal ball. The site may not even be functional. In general, I think it's wise to stay away from trading during the election. I won't be doing much of it. The swings happen too fast and the spreads get too wide. Definitely don't make a trade based on something the public is seeing on CNN.

[Sanlmar]

One of PLOL’s greatest gifts that keeps on giving has been this podcast.

I see another one has dropped. Check out this description. Such beautiful prose.

However, one of my biggest disagreements with Zoltar is over learning, which I am opposed to. This is due to the fact that Zoltar is one of the top researchers in political gambling, at least when it comes to doing deep dives on conspiracy theories and un-sourced internet stories, which are exactly the same things that 99 percent of Floridians use to make their voting choices.

https://starspangledgamblers.com/202...oject-is-here/

[jsearles22]

Bovada still has Biden +125 in Florida. If the line in Florida hasn't moved on your book, you may want to go bet it NOW. It's likely to move down as soon as the books price in the Monmouth and Marist polls that dropped today.

Hope you listened. It dropped to +110 (still good value btw)

Sorry if I missed it elsewhere. It’s looking like this is moving against us. I can get +150 now. Thoughts?

[PLOL]

Hope you listened. It dropped to +110 (still good value btw)

Sorry if I missed it elsewhere. It’s looking like this is moving against us. I can get +150 now. Thoughts?

Bet it. As long as it's an amt you're comfortable losing. It's good value.

[BCR]

Sorry if I missed it elsewhere. It’s looking like this is moving against us. I can get +150 now. Thoughts?

Bet it. As long as it's an amt you're comfortable losing. It's good value.

Are you still as confident as you were? Like I just listened to your star spangled gambler podcast and the trump dude was highly confident and the other dudes said nothing and then it was like they just decided to cancel the podcast and say fuck it.

I am watching the markets, and looking at the models where Nate is. 89/10 and stuff like the economist is 19/20 Biden wins and someone is going to be wrong in the most major of ways possible. Trump bettors are clearly flooding the market with money and either they’re going to be slaughtered or no one is ever going to take a poll seriously again. Are you still all in? Are you buying more if so? Biden just keeps getting cheaper. Never seen such a disconnect. Even last time wasn’t this much of a disconnect .

[Dan Druff]

But I don't think he is


That's my point


If Biden loses the popular vote Then CA would have to play a pivotal role in him doing so.


Personally I never lay huge odds on any bet but that's just me . I'd rather find a +ev bet where I'm the one with the large payday if the unexpected happens

disclaimer- I'm a professional poker player and a decent gambler but not a professional sports bettor

The chance of him winning the popular vote is high, but not as high as winning CA, which is a lock. It's greater than 99% that he wins California.

This is a weird election for many reasons. Turnout will likely be a lot higher. You'd think the turnout would favor Biden, but it's not certain. It's possible that this "silent majority" really exists, and they'll show up for Trump. It's much more likely Biden wins the popular vote, yes, but it's not the same as CA, where Biden is so far ahead that he basically can't lose.