On another note those are probably fair odds, I would put it around 30% to pull it off if I had to take a stab at it. Just have to hit that draw.

There is also potential to break that 295lb by a good bit if you stay focused. That is still a TON of weight for someone to carry at 6ft and change. I would try to get some bonus odds for every pound (or 5 IDK) below or something if possible.