"Don't run when you lose, don't whine when it hurts. It'sOriginally Posted by Tellafriend
like first grade, no one likes a cry baby - Gordon Gekko
"Don't run when you lose, don't whine when it hurts. It's
like first grade, no one likes a cry baby - Gordon Gekko
Season ended as it played out all year. Favorites won and they covered. Especially as it applied to the Patriots.
There was no sharp play and their action was to be ignored given the betting stats. That was my take going into the game.
It gets you to wonder about action moving forward. Is the spread between the sharps and the public narrowing. Especially given the easy access to information.
Is there a comparison to be made with what happened in poker this past decade?
Something to discuss.
If that's true why are you posting on a 3-year old dupe with 5 posts before today?"Don't run when you lose, don't whine when it hurts. It's
like first grade, no one likes a cry baby - Gordon Gekko
HILLARY WON
Vegas uses the term sharp too loosely. A guy betting $10,000 on a side is probably not a sharp, he is just a guy with a gambling problem. The real sharps are making tons of bets where they think they have an edge and make their money based on volume. I found this book on amazon that was written by a poker player, it is a good read and only 5 bucks if you use kindle: https://www.amazon.com/Sharper-Guide.../dp/B01K5SDAKS
Use Druff's affiliate link and make him 10 cents. This way he can upgrade his large pepsi to an extra large one at Taco Bell.
I applaud you for trying to think outside the box but a few things...Vegas uses the term sharp too loosely. A guy betting $10,000 on a side is probably not a sharp, he is just a guy with a gambling problem. The real sharps are making tons of bets where they think they have an edge and make their money based on volume. I found this book on amazon that was written by a poker player, it is a good read and only 5 bucks if you use kindle: https://www.amazon.com/Sharper-Guide.../dp/B01K5SDAKS
Use Druff's affiliate link and make him 10 cents. This way he can upgrade his large pepsi to an extra large one at Taco Bell.
1. Trying to understand how a sharp makes the decision to bet x amount on whatever outcome is neither worth anyones time even in the event that they wanted to. If you made it clear in the beginning that you believe their bet amounts are in the top 10 moat important decisions they have to make youll probably be disregarded pretty quickly.
2. Theres so much good info in dark corners of the net where you get flat answers and explanations using actua statistics and simulations that will provide you with infinite more info than your most well rounded, most talented former athlete buddy that watches every conference USA game.
3.Bottom line, some of us arent sharp and never will be. I know two guys that post here everyday that would tell you first thing theyre nowhere near but they have discipline and they fire when the experts tell them to and never otherwise.
Iamprofessionaltalk was a godsend to this site and if druff wants some revival around here he needs to make the necessary apology
Shout to bigdick,vegas,sandalbar,henry,toaster. First night drinkin since the second and final baby arrived in april. Love you all. Dan Quinn should be a ball boy.
Because I am shit faced n having fun!!! weeee... The Gekko quot was pretty cool. I have been lurking and trying this posting thing. Just wait till you see my shity picks for Golf, the Phoenix Open was off the hook this year. Should have been here. Be cool n have fun hongkongerIf that's true why are you posting on a 3-year old dupe with 5 posts before today?
I realized IAMProfessionalTalk stopped posting here long ago but didnt realize it was because of some kind of beef with Druff....
can we get a back story on this situation????
Never got an official reason for his departure, and for all I know, he might still listen to radio.
However, he left after calling out That Hanson Kid (Bart Hanson) in the Scams, Scandals, and Shadiness forum.
Basically he was calling Hanson shady and a big phony, and I responded by saying that I was open to having the discussion, but that I was going to need to see some proof or at least more specifics. (I never prevented him from continuing to post about it, though, nor did I close the thread.)
We never really got those, so I basically told him that I couldn't really do much with what he was saying, nor was it changing my opinion of Hanson.
Also, at the time Hanson (who is a good friend of khalwat's) was appearing on radio a lot, which is what got IamProfessionalTalk so angry.
khalwat's jumping to Hanson's defense in that thread also seemed to get him angry.
So there's nothing I can really apologize for. He clearly hates Bart Hanson, and that's fine. I wasn't trying to defend Bart, but I also couldn't agree that Bart was a piece of shit when I wasn't being given any proof or details which would allow me to draw that conclusion.
For the record, while I don't know Bart well, he has always been pleasant and not at all shady in my limited dealings with him.
Snake, Varys, Daly and anyone else,
It's just the germ of an idea and I want to take another crack at it.
What is a sharp? In my mind it is not the big money by definition. Sharp is an attitude and approach. Sharp is the "anti public" action. If the high volume, low dollar action is on one side and you see later movement counter that trend - isn't that action attributed to the sharps?
The sharps perceive value in the inflated public sentiment - at least sometimes.
A core tenant was that public money is "dumb money". I am submitting that the public is not as dumb and emotional as they once were in this age of the web, fantasy sports and the endless availability of analysis prepackaged for you (much of it free). I likened this to poker. A decade or more ago knowledge about the game of poker, the access to information was not available. All you had was Super System by Doyle and that was not widely read.
Today do not assume even low stakes poker players are fish. At least fish in the classic clueless sense. Even small stakes have tools and knowledge that never existed before. The spread between the pros (sharps) and the recreational players (public) has narrowed.
The initial line is not an accident. Analysis has been done and the numbers run by the books to construct that line. If the public takes one side that is not necessarily stupid money. Regard it more seriously than before.
I come from day trading. I do not trade fundamentals. I am lazy but that is a separate issue. "All the information is baked into the price". Especially information that is only available to insiders. Those trades have happened and it's already built in.
So a big part of my sports betting was watching the line price movement. I am not trying to outwit the wonks. I am trying to game and find value fading sentiment. In football that may be a flawed approach.
Oh yeah, IAPT was god. He invited me for beers in Vegas. I am gonna hit him up sometime.
I have one prop that has not yet been graded. Any idea on this one?
Edit- screenshot won't upload
I bet a player would leave the game with a concussion or concussion like symptoms and not return.
It's hilarious that we as a society think everyone can be a dr, a lawyer, an engineer. Some people are just fucking stupid. Why can't we just accept that?
interesting how the pats got evened out last night...
fucked by the tyree helmet catch for a super bowl and then fucked outta another one by the fucking dime eli threw to manningham (which might have even been a better throw/catch than the one ryan made to julio last night scary as that may be)...
then the get the butler play two years ago to win that one that they probably shouldn't have and then the Edelman catch last night (in addition to all the other madness) to keep them going on that last drive...
cant remember that happening in sports within this short of a time period in games of that consequence...
brady the GOAT QB and the GOAT troll as well...this is just fucking phenomenal...
It's going to be a long six months without football.
We still have a mystery going on to solve.
Attention Daly, Sanlmar, and chinamaniac!!!
Whichever one of you stole Tom Brady jersey after the super bowl victory you really need to give it back to him it's just not cool!
People still watch Sportscenter and play madden and genuinely think they could coach a NFL team. I get your point and agree to a certain extent but public going to public.
When I was in Vegas in December there was a line at the sportsbook out the door and around the corner and 4/5 people had parlay and teaser cards. That is a ton of the square of the square action.
maybe I'm gonna be really wrong on this one, but if they put a 10.5 on ATL next year i'm gonna be looking very forward to betting the under on that one...losing both coordinators and hiring a fucking drunk as a replacement has to be a recipe for disaster...
when does bovada release the lines for college basketball? I seldom place action but I am looking for UNC/Duke game. Is there a certain time they release the lines?
edit-- lines are now up
Last edited by ltrainkoja; 02-09-2017 at 09:57 AM.
Shitty Golf pics for the AT&T Pebble Beach
Dustin Rose to win
Phill top 5
Matt Kusher top 10
Jim Furyk top 10
Tony Finua top 10
Have not played or watched golf in a few years. Maybe this will get me back in the game. I should have posted this Wednesday.
FYI... Dustin Johnson and Justin Rose are two different people.
Someone knows something. Oregon vs USC opened -4.5 but has dropped to -3.5 even with 87% of money on Oregon. I think I'm gonna have to splash the USC ML here
It's hilarious that we as a society think everyone can be a dr, a lawyer, an engineer. Some people are just fucking stupid. Why can't we just accept that?
Why is Gonzaga only-2.5?
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