*** Official Flying Stupidity Wagering thread ***

[Daly]

[BeerAndPoker]

To be fair, it was Atlanta's defense that got them the lead and it was Atlanta's defense that lost it for them too. Brady deserves the credit for his great performance but all Atlanta had to do was make one stop on any of those drives.

One thing I can't figure out, when Gostkowski missed the extra point, the Patriots had scored to make it 28-9. Why weren't they going for 2? Being down 17 allows you to tie it with 2 TDs and a FG. Being down 18 you either need 3 TDs or a 2-pointer later.

Patriots winning the overtime coin toss and sending that tired Falcons defense back on the field was huge but you blow a 25 point lead in regulation you're asking to lose.

[hongkonger]

To be fair, it was Atlanta's defense that got them the lead and it was Atlanta's defense that lost it for them too. Brady deserves the credit for his great performance but all Atlanta had to do was make one stop on any of those drives.

One thing I can't figure out, when Gostkowski missed the extra point, the Patriots had scored to make it 28-9. Why weren't they going for 2? Being down 17 allows you to tie it with 2 TDs and a FG. Being down 18 you either need 3 TDs or a 2-pointer later.

Patriots winning the overtime coin toss and sending that tired Falcons defense back on the field was huge but you blow a 25 point lead in regulation you're asking to lose.

Absolutely. When the Patriots won the toss I remarked to my friend, "the Falcons aren't going to touch the ball."

[Tellafriend]

That was an abortion of a game if you are a Falcon's supporter. Whoever gave them their halftime speech needs castrating. Seriously. How deflated could they come out in the second half. Just sick.

So, I lost on the coons. My mistake - I guess. Glad I didn't take the under like so many others. But still.

Thank God for the wise men on here who encourage me to make some prop bets that I otherwise wouldn't have. I went a staggering 3-0 on those. Took the under on the National Anthem. Took Edelman over 26.5 on his longest pass. Took Bennett over 3.5. So many thanks to you wise men for your mercy.

Still, Atlanta, you remain shit, just like the Georgia Bulldogs who year after year rate in the top 5 nationally for recruiting and year after year fail to meet their expectations.

I'd rather chunk my money off in the pitts than lose like this.

[big dick]

What a beat.
Rule #1 in football never bet against brady
Rule # 2 is never bet on Matt Ryan

[herbertstemple]

After Jones circus catch that got ATL into fg range, they ran the ball on first down. Figured they would run the ball two more times and if they didn't get a first down, kick a field goal. Game over with their kicker. That's what teams usually do in that situation. Then when Ryan dropped back, NE had a tiny chance to stay in the game. The game just went to hell after that. Sometimes conservative play calling is the way to go.

[simpdog]

After Jones circus catch that got ATL into fg range, they ran the ball on first down. Figured they would run the ball two more times and if they didn't get a first down, kick a field goal. Game over with their kicker. That's what teams usually do in that situation. Then when Ryan dropped back, NE had a tiny chance to stay in the game. The game just went to hell after that. Sometimes conservative play calling is the way to go.

After being up 28-3, Atlanta went super conservative with their play calling on defense AND offense.

UNTIL Ryan dropped back. Absolutely no idea why you would change your strategy at that point.

As a Pats fan I'm elated (and $$$$ elated too) however I'm also super glad it turned into a game. Other than for haterz, a 42-15 game would have been an absolute bedshit/snoozefest.

[BCR]

After Jones circus catch that got ATL into fg range, they ran the ball on first down. Figured they would run the ball two more times and if they didn't get a first down, kick a field goal. Game over with their kicker. That's what teams usually do in that situation. Then when Ryan dropped back, NE had a tiny chance to stay in the game. The game just went to hell after that. Sometimes conservative play calling is the way to go.

Worse than that was 3rd and 1 up 16 with 8 minutes left, clock running in your own territory, and they go shotgun and fumble. Just an amazing choke job.

[handicapme]

That was an abortion of a game if you are a Falcon's supporter. Whoever gave them their halftime speech needs castrating. Seriously. How deflated could they come out in the second half. Just sick.

So, I lost on the coons. My mistake - I guess. Glad I didn't take the under like so many others. But still.

Thank God for the wise men on here who encourage me to make some prop bets that I otherwise wouldn't have. I went a staggering 3-0 on those. Took the under on the National Anthem. Took Edelman over 26.5 on his longest pass. Took Bennett over 3.5. So many thanks to you wise men for your mercy.

Still, Atlanta, you remain shit, just like the Georgia Bulldogs who year after year rate in the top 5 nationally for recruiting and year after year fail to meet their expectations.

I'd rather chunk my money off in the pitts than lose like this.

you are welcome!!! went 10-13 and won just a bit on player props because freeman and sanu fucked me but I went nuts on the 2 bennett ones so all good. Away from props I did however win the over / pats -4.5 for +135/ pats call heads & pats win game (TY daly!) so not a bad night at all!

shut out to my boy CHET for the brady miracle

[big dick]

After Jones circus catch that got ATL into fg range, they ran the ball on first down. Figured they would run the ball two more times and if they didn't get a first down, kick a field goal. Game over with their kicker. That's what teams usually do in that situation. Then when Ryan dropped back, NE had a tiny chance to stay in the game. The game just went to hell after that. Sometimes conservative play calling is the way to go.

Worse than that was 3rd and 1 up 16 in 4th with 8 minutes left, clock running in your own territory, and they go shotgun and fumble. Just an amazing choke job.

It's what Matt Ryan does he just always chokes

[handicapme]

Watching Daly kill it in props, learning how one of my buddies on this site who was capping NCAA was doing it and combining my dfs research I started playing nfl props in like week 7. Since then I've placed 119 plays and have gone 72-47 for 60.5% (small sample size but all confirmed by texts to my buddy on pfa or my book). I follow a rule that my buddy who caps ncaa told me about the nfl and because of that I usually refuse to play anything above -160 and if I feel like it's the lock of the year maybe will play it very small. Sometimes by following this rule I've passed on what I would consider "locks", but one loss from those is significantly more painful then a normal -115 loss. This is really the only rule I have and then the rest is just combining my dfs data to what the lines are and seeing where the value is.

2 weeks ago Daly was taking under Bennett props against the steelers and this made sense from a high level point of view considering how horrible he did vs Houston & talk that he played so bad because he was injured (which wasn't true he played 93% of snaps that game!)... the reason why I actually took the opposite side (although LOL I won receptions but lost yrds by 1 mother fucking yard!!!! 32 vs 32.5) was because Houston has the #2 Defense against TEs buttttt the steelers had the #15 defense against TEs. I didn't take the Bennett unders for the houston game because receptions were -170 at 3 when I looked and yards were 30 something at -140 where I felt the ROE was too low. All this basically meant was that the middle linebackers of houston were faster and could keep up with a catching TE while the steelers MLs were slower or just less reactive and the value was there for that game, even if you feel short for one of them based on 1yrd.

This week I have 17 player prop plays going, it should be 18 but I refuse to take coleman u47.5 at -180 (this will hit imo around 70-75% of the time), and the first 2 plays I took without even checking my projections were Bennett over rec 3.5 @+110 Large (now -110)/yrds 38.5 @-110 medium. FYI my projections agree with my first instinct, but the main reason why I took them is that ATL has the 5-7th (depending on stats) worse defense against TEs in the league out of all teams and as many of you know the Pats love using their passing TEs. If Bennett gets 5 targets this will easily go over on rec and I'm pretty confident on yrds (although last week I was too...). I'm no Daly or the other GOD on this site who shall remain nameless that kills NCAA but has made me plenty of money, but these 2 plays are my favs.

TL;DR
Take Bennett over 3.5rec / 38.5yrds, my stats say this is the best player prop out there without paying ridiculous juice!

Other large plays this week: sanu o4 rec @ 100 / freeman u54.5 rushing @-115
Other med plays this week: brady o300.5 yrds -135 (now at -165) / no brady INT -150

Colman u47.5yrds would be up there with my Bennett play but the vig is lol ridiculous for obv reasons.


BTW if you follow and lose I'm sorry and obligatory: noose. One of the things I hate seeing the most is people losing money because of me, but I feel like the Bennett plays are strong enough that I wanted to share and give you my reasons. My sample size record is still pretty small so that's why I'm adding this disclaimer. Do your own research online and something tells me that you will draw the same conclusions as I did and why this is a +EV bet.

I hope no one followed the sanu or freeman plays(sorry if you did)... however I DO hope some people followed the bennett plays, I ended up calling my local and doubling up on those 2

[Daly]

This Super Bowl had some of the absolute worst play calling by BOTH offensive coordinators I've ever seen.

Absolute Dogshit performance.

[handicapme]

This Super Bowl had some of the absolute worst play calling by BOTH offensive coordinators I've ever seen.

Absolute Dogshit performance.

You know I appreciate your insight a lot and btw TY for the heads/pats win prop... but I don't think both offensive coordinators sucked. The pats play calling was legit all game, the pats wide receivers just didn't put their glue on until late in the 3rd lol. I will agree that ATL offense shit the bed after they scored their 4th TD.

[hongkonger]

This Super Bowl had some of the absolute worst play calling by BOTH offensive coordinators I've ever seen.

Absolute Dogshit performance.

This

[GambleBotsChafedPenis]

This Super Bowl had some of the absolute worst play calling by BOTH offensive coordinators I've ever seen.

Absolute Dogshit performance.

You know I appreciate your insight a lot and btw TY for the heads/pats win prop... but I don't think both offensive coordinators sucked. The pats play calling was legit all game, the pats wide receivers just didn't put their glue on until late in the 3rd lol. I will agree that ATL offense shit the bed after they scored their 4th TD.

I know you cant single out one play and say 'oh that whole thing was dogshit', but that Edelman WR option pass at midfield on 3rd and 3 I think it was didn't make much sense at that specific time...also the Bennett screen pass at the end of the first half was a little head scratching too...

[Daly]

This Super Bowl had some of the absolute worst play calling by BOTH offensive coordinators I've ever seen.

Absolute Dogshit performance.

You know I appreciate your insight a lot and btw TY for the heads/pats win prop... but I don't think both offensive coordinators sucked. The pats play calling was legit all game, the pats wide receivers just didn't put their glue on until late in the 3rd lol. I will agree that ATL offense shit the bed after they scored their 4th TD.

Atlanta was up 25 points and was running pass plays with :17 seconds left on the play clock. They could have taken three knees and punted and the patriots wouldn't have had enough time to come back. That alone should get the play caller fired.

[handicapme]

You know I appreciate your insight a lot and btw TY for the heads/pats win prop... but I don't think both offensive coordinators sucked. The pats play calling was legit all game, the pats wide receivers just didn't put their glue on until late in the 3rd lol. I will agree that ATL offense shit the bed after they scored their 4th TD.

Atlanta was up 25 points and was running pass plays with :17 seconds left on the play clock. They could have taken three knees and punted and the patriots wouldn't have had enough time to come back. That alone should get the play caller fired.

[handicapme]

You know I appreciate your insight a lot and btw TY for the heads/pats win prop... but I don't think both offensive coordinators sucked. The pats play calling was legit all game, the pats wide receivers just didn't put their glue on until late in the 3rd lol. I will agree that ATL offense shit the bed after they scored their 4th TD.

I know you cant single out one play and say 'oh that whole thing was dogshit', but that Edelman WR option pass at midfield on 3rd and 3 I think it was didn't make much sense at that specific time...also the Bennett screen pass at the end of the first half was a little head scratching too...

This one pissed me off because it gave me the receptions but then the fact that he went 3yrds back cost me the over (for about 14min of game play lol!). Away from my own personal gains yea that was prob the only bad play aside from the lateral that the pats had.

[snake_in_the_ass]

Cheer up folks, I know a guy that had roughly $500,000 on the Falcons +3. Guy has been ice cold in NFL and was on tilt trying to get even. No such thing as a sharp on sides. I finally agree with Daly. Picking a side is like playing a 3 hour hand of bacarrat....50/50.

[GambleBotsChafedPenis]

I know you cant single out one play and say 'oh that whole thing was dogshit', but that Edelman WR option pass at midfield on 3rd and 3 I think it was didn't make much sense at that specific time...also the Bennett screen pass at the end of the first half was a little head scratching too...

This one pissed me off because it gave me the receptions but then the fact that he went 3yrds back cost me the over (for about 14min of game play lol!). Away from my own personal gains yea that was prob the only bad play aside from the lateral that the pats had.

congrats on your Bennett win...that's one of the ones that I fucked up not taking...loved your analysis on that one...just had a fucking brainfart and forgot to go back and bet it...