Been rolling the polls around in my own mind lately.
My thoughts started with the declining Television numbers overall. This is polling too. PFA has talked about the declining NFL numbers.
I made a post about watching kids watch NFL. The fantasy kids fire up NFL Red Zone with their phone in hand. Are they watching any games from kickoff to post game?
Neilson has no way to measure this. Snail mail and land lines.
Television viewership really isn't declining. It's just different and can't be measured now. Bad polling numbers.
I have a kid who just bought a smart tv. It has sat in his room for a couple of weeks. I offered to add another cable box and he said he doesn't want it but thanks. True story. You know how he is viewing media. It doesn't involve Comcast. He is an example of those not measured
I know political polling is lagging in similar fashion to Neilson. Same issues with contacting people. Polls start with their understanding of the overall demographic. They have only so much money and time for a given poll. If they feel they have reached out to a disproportionate demographic like middle aged white males they will weight that number to conform to their overall view of the country's voters.
Then the fivethirtyeight type flawed intellectual attribution ramps up.
Again, I suspect polling will be proved flawed and wanting in this increasingly complicated new era. Much will be learned this election.
I am not saying Polls are completely wrong about Clinton. I suspect results amongst certain demographics are gonna shock the world. Then again, I will enjoy a Brexit like humbling of the polls and experts too