Quote Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post
I agree with most of your personal prediction, but it's closer than you think.

You gave Trump everything Romney got in 2012, minus AZ, UT, and NC.

You gave Hillary everything Obama got, as well.

However, AZ, UT, and NC are all close. Those could easily go to Trump, especially if he campaigns effectively or if one of the many Clinton scandals take hold with the public enough to shift things.

Ohio is also close (within 3%) right now.

And Florida is hard to tell. One poll says Hillary +13, the other says Hillary +1. That's going to be Trump's toughest major battleground state, but it's not out of reach.

Shift the momentum to Trump just a bit more, and he takes AZ, UT, NC, and Ohio and maybe even Florida come within reach.

Then he just needs 17 more electoral votes from other battleground states to win.

I'm not saying he's going to win.

I'm saying it's not hopeless yet for Trump supporters.
I tuned out after 1st line. This analysis is done with stone tools and points to why the predictions have proven to be so dreadful and wrong so far.

Equating Romney voters in 2012 with Trump. Cause why? Romney was a Republican and Trump is sorta tolerated by GOP? Romney's position on the issues is so similar to Trump.

Useless. Completely ignoring the Trump dynamic. This ain't about the issues.

Is Nate Silver still posting?