*** OFFICIAL *** NFL 2025-26 Thread

[Daly]

Its early for this sort of talk but Id be surprised if it wasnt the Rams who win it all.

I did buy some Jags tickets for the AFC.

I'm very tempted to fire two futures bets:

Rams Superbowl winner (ploppy, I know, but I feel the same way you do)

Rams/Patriots the Superbowl matchup


I think it's probably the Patriots or Broncos coming out of the AFC, and Broncos just look too inconsistent. Same with the Bills, despite their 4-game winning streak.

Yeah its a anything can happen year on the AFC side of the bracket and I landed on Jax because my eyes tell me they look like the best team right now other than NE/Buff and neither one of them can truly be trusted for different reasons.

[garrett]

I'm very tempted to fire two futures bets:

Rams Superbowl winner (ploppy, I know, but I feel the same way you do)

Rams/Patriots the Superbowl matchup


I think it's probably the Patriots or Broncos coming out of the AFC, and Broncos just look too inconsistent. Same with the Bills, despite their 4-game winning streak.

Yeah its a anything can happen year on the AFC side of the bracket and I landed on Jax because my eyes tell me they look like the best team right now other than NE/Buff and neither one of them can truly be trusted for different reasons.

Do not agree, its the Buffalo Bills year

Josh Allen time he's about to win a few Super Bowls and Hall of Fame himself in a few years or more..

[Dan Druff]

Detroit lost today despite being favored by more than a TD, and despite facing a backup QB.

Why is that significant?

First off, that shuts them out of the playoffs, which is a huge disappointment for a team many considered to be prime Superbowl contenders.

Second, that would have shut the door for me on Survivor, even had Philly won and I went on with a field which would have been about 300 at that point.

I might have dodged the Ravens loss on Week 14 (my planned pick, but I remember almost fading them that week betting-wise, so I might have pivoted elsewhere), but no chance I'd have dodged today. 100% the Lions would've been my pick, and I'd have lost. I would have hedged some, but still, I wouldn't have gotten past today, I did not have Dallas or Denver available, nor KC. I would not have picked Washington or Minnesota.

[Dan Druff]

NFL.com final power rankings coming into week 1: https://www.nfl.com/news/nfl-power-r...025-nfl-season

Top half:

1) Eagles
2) Ravens
3) Bills
4) Chiefs
5) Lions
6) Packers
7) Bucs
8) Redskins
9) Broncos
10) Bengals
11) Rams
12) Vikings
13) Texans
14) Chargers
15) Niners
16) Steelers

The bolded indicates ones which either are eliminated or likely to miss the playoffs. That's 6 of the top 10.

And look at this:

22) Patriots
23) Jaguars
28) Colts
29) Panthers

Indy probably misses but would've made it if not for injury. Panthers are probably going to win their division, Jaguars somehow keep winning, and Patriots are one of the top 3 favorites to win the AFC.



Basically the results were far different this year than most expected.

[VaughnP]

Have to feel bad for Detroit. This probably closes the window, they are legitimately injury cursed. Even outside of serious injuries, they routinely had players go down for the rest of a game in key position matchups etc.


Here’s a summary of Detroit Lions starters (and key players) who have missed games this year or been placed on Injured Reserve (IR) during the 2025 season (through Week 17/Dec 25, 2025):

��*�� Players Placed on IR (2025 Season)

These are players who were put on season-long or multi-week injured reserve, which typically means missing at least four games:
1. Kerby Joseph (S) – placed on IR and done for the season after missing multiple games with a knee injury. 
2. Brian Branch (S) – torn Achilles and on IR, out for the remainder of the season. 
3. Sam LaPorta (TE) – placed on IR with a back injury, likely season-ending. 
4. Terrion Arnold (CB) – placed on IR with a shoulder injury. 
5. Zach Cunningham (LB) – on IR with a hamstring injury. 
6. Giovanni Manu (OL) – placed on IR (knee), eligible to return. 
7. Brock Wright (TE) – on IR with a neck injury. 
8. Jamarco Jones (OT) – placed on IR earlier in season (Achilles). 
9. Colby Sorsdal (G) – placed on IR (leg). 
10. Zeke Turner (LB) – placed on IR (foot). 
11. Dan Jackson (S) – on IR (listed in injury transactions). 

�� Total unique IR placements: 11 players have landed on IR this season.
(Note: this includes some players who *may not be starters but were significant contributors or expected to start at points.) 

�� Starters / Key Players Who Missed Games

In addition to those on IR, several starters missed at least one game due to injury or were inactive:
• Taylor Decker (LT) – missed games recently due to illness/shoulder issues. 
• Graham Glasgow (C) – missed recent games (injury report/ruled out). 
• Kerby Joseph (S) – besides being on IR, had already missed multiple games before placement. 
• Terrion Arnold (CB) – missed games before IR placement after earlier injuries/concussions. 
• (Other occasional inactive starters per weekly inactives lists — e.g., Maddox, Harper — who missed games without necessarily going to IR.) 

�� Summary
• 11 players have been placed on IR so far in 2025.
• Multiple starters have missed games due to injuries (Decker, Glasgow, Joseph before IR, Arnold before IR, and others listed inactive).
• Some starters (e.g., Mackenzie Gibbs, Amon-Ra St. Brown) have played through minor injuries but remained active.



This is without counting the injury decimation that rolled over from last year:

�� Major 2024 Injuries That Rolled Into 2025

These were serious injuries sustained in 2024 that either affected the start of 2025 or delayed returns well into the current season:

�� Aidan Hutchinson (EDGE)
• Suffered a broken tibia and fibula in 2024 and missed the remainder of that season.
• That injury kept him out for a substantial portion of 2025 as well, disrupting Detroit’s pass rush and defensive continuity. 

�� Malcolm Rodriguez (LB)
• Tore his ACL in late 2024, ending his season.
• He was in recovery during the early 2025 season and only returned mid-season once cleared from surgery. 

�� Alim McNeill (DT)
• Tore his ACL late in 2024 and spent the start of 2025 on the Physically Unable to Perform (PUP) list.
• He was ultimately activated mid-season once healthy. 

�� Alex Anzalone (LB)
• Broke his forearm in 2024 and was placed on IR — though he ultimately returned for the final games of that season, his recovery timeline bridged into the 2025 offseason. 

�� Other Carry-Over Rehab / Depth Effects
• Derrick Barnes (LB) and others from 2024 IR (multiple linemen and defensive players) were part of the extended rehab cycle affecting offseason conditioning and initial roster decisions — even if they didn’t miss 2025 games for the same injury. 
• Detroit was widely noted for being one of the most injured teams league-wide in 2024 and 2025, with a continuing narrative about the lingering impact of those injuries on roster health and depth. 

[Tellafriend]

Detroit lost today despite being favored by more than a TD, and despite facing a backup QB.

Why is that significant?

First off, that shuts them out of the playoffs, which is a huge disappointment for a team many considered to be prime Superbowl contenders.

Second, that would have shut the door for me on Survivor, even had Philly won and I went on with a field which would have been about 300 at that point.

I might have dodged the Ravens loss on Week 14 (my planned pick, but I remember almost fading them that week betting-wise, so I might have pivoted elsewhere), but no chance I'd have dodged today. 100% the Lions would've been my pick, and I'd have lost. I would have hedged some, but still, I wouldn't have gotten past today, I did not have Dallas or Denver available, nor KC. I would not have picked Washington or Minnesota.

i would have encouragaed us to have gone with Minn here at home and beating very good teams the last few weeks since JJ returned. i know, i know. would you have moved the needle at all?

[Dan Druff]

Detroit lost today despite being favored by more than a TD, and despite facing a backup QB.

Why is that significant?

First off, that shuts them out of the playoffs, which is a huge disappointment for a team many considered to be prime Superbowl contenders.

Second, that would have shut the door for me on Survivor, even had Philly won and I went on with a field which would have been about 300 at that point.

I might have dodged the Ravens loss on Week 14 (my planned pick, but I remember almost fading them that week betting-wise, so I might have pivoted elsewhere), but no chance I'd have dodged today. 100% the Lions would've been my pick, and I'd have lost. I would have hedged some, but still, I wouldn't have gotten past today, I did not have Dallas or Denver available, nor KC. I would not have picked Washington or Minnesota.

i would have encouragaed us to have gone with Minn here at home and beating very good teams the last few weeks since JJ returned. i know, i know. would you have moved the needle at all?

Minn had a no-namer backup QB and was +7 yesterday. No chance I could have done a fancy play here. The original matchup was going to be much closer and I would have considered Minn if it looked reasonable, but no way I'm ever doing a +7 in Survivor with a single ticket in a case like this. BTW none of the 10 yesterday had Detriot, probably because they were already used. One guy was stuck with Redskins yesterday.

Oddly this year's Survivor Thanksgiving carnage caused the phenomenon where a lot of ploppies made it deep, whereas those who planned well got fucked. The only "sharp" players to make it deep were the ones who owned a million tickets and were fading the Thanksgiving favorites AND also picking them.

[Tellafriend]

let's go in next year w/ double the tickets? serious.

[Dan Druff]

let's go in next year w/ double the tickets? serious.

Still deciding what I'm gonna do next year. I have a lot of time to figure out this one. I'm definitely not doing fancy play syndrome early. In fact, even when pulled off successfully, it has less value than you think because so much can change during the year in the NFL. Look at my power rankings list above and examine which teams actually ended up good/bad by the end. For example, using Jax early was believed to be a big future value win, but in reality it wasn't, because they ended up far better than expected.

I've actually come around to think that the smart play is to eschew any fancy play in the first half, and aim for just surviving as many tickets as possible, while also not being a retard and blowing all the good teams. Then hopefully you make it to the low-choice picks like Thanksgiving and Christmas with multiple tickets, and can start diversifying or even sacrificing tickets by picking opposing teams.

Going for a dog on Thanksgiving was really smart this year because all of the favorites had issues. Obviously nobody could expect all 4 dogs winning, but this year it wasn't a shock that it happened. Those are the spots where having multiple tickets can be huge.

Anyway next year I gotta figure out what the right # of tickets to buy is, and how I plan to use them. I did get lucky for awhile with that final ticket that it lasted for so long without an upset, though I was pretty good with it regarding noticing fail coming and pivoting the other direction.

Perhaps for 26-27 we can talk about putting together a PFA syndicate, maybe I can even get some guys listening to radio involved, as many of them are middle-aged dudes with decent $$ who might enjoy such a thing.

My only hesitation is that it's always easier for me to gamble when it's just my own money. Just feels like less pressure. I like to cause and own my successes and failures, without having to think about the impacts on third parties, or worry about their input. But in this case it might be warranted, as I felt like I was playing at a disadvantage against these syndicates.

[VaughnP]

What is the point of even playing the games when nearly every close, important contest is decided by the officials?

[VaughnP]

That call eliminated the Colts and shutdown any chance the Chargers had at the 1 or 2 seed.

[BCR]

What is the point of even playing the games when nearly every close, important contest is decided by the officials?

Horrible.

Embedded Tweet

https://twitter.com/twt/status/2005075052249931803

[VaughnP]

Embedded Tweet

https://twitter.com/MLFootball/status/2005074346562519223

The call is for the contact on 19, but notice that both receivers in the frame here are running into the defenders as a strategy.

[VaughnP]

Despite the Eagles combining for 5 punts and 16 yards in the second half, and the Bills scoring two touchdowns on their final two drives, they decided to give up what was probably at minimum a 2 to 1 edge if they try the kick (factoring a potential miss) in exchange for an at best 50/50 shot to win the game by going for two. Pure, unadulterated retardation. I guess no one in Buffalo is familiar with old adage "never give a sucker an even break".

[Dan Druff]

I think the Bills and Broncos are going to flop in the playoffs.

[mulva]

I think the Bills and Broncos are going to flop in the playoffs.

the bills just can't win on the road and they're somewhat challenged offensively. last few years their defense kept them out of the SB as well. they just couldn't stop mahomes. even though you have to respect them they seem vulnerable.


denver has won a lot of close games this year. it's quite the feat that they seemed to win all of them. beating both very good and very bad teams in wavering fashion. they're close to securing the 1 seed as well. it's been a remarkable season.


jax and houston have really risen their stock. houston has been one of the best teams in the AFC for a long time now with little fanfare. if there is a longshot it's them imo.


pats never play a bad game.


bal isn't right. they did play better with huntley beating GB. that's pretty scary. jackson has been bad. i'm really surprised they can still win the division as they failed in every critical game they've played. defense is bad as well. but pitt is a lame duck. if huntley plays well they could easily roll this team next week.

i don't think anybody will give the chargers a chance

[mulva]

it's hard to believe SEA and SF will be playing for the 1 seed next week.


if SF wins and LAR win tomorrow and next week SEA is the 6 seed and LAR is the 5......lol i'm pretty sure the LAR will either be the 5/6 seed regardless. wow. looks like the rams will have to win 3 road games to go to the SB. and if sea loses they'll have to do the same


SEA could lose vs SF on the road as these teams know each other well. it's not a good spot for them but i think they're the better team. if darnold doesn't mess it up i think they're winning. i'm going to put my money where my mouth is as well.

i think the only team that's stopping SEA from going to the SB is the LAR or darnold having bad game.

sea has some really nice priced exact SB win matchup odds. i'm going to try and time it right and wait until i know they're going to beat SF.

sea at a 1 seed is much easier than the 6 seed which is dicey

sea def hous 40-1
sea def den 25-1
sea def ne 30-1

[mulva]

I'm very tempted to fire two futures bets:

Rams Superbowl winner (ploppy, I know, but I feel the same way you do)

Rams/Patriots the Superbowl matchup


I think it's probably the Patriots or Broncos coming out of the AFC, and Broncos just look too inconsistent. Same with the Bills, despite their 4-game winning streak.

Yeah its a anything can happen year on the AFC side of the bracket and I landed on Jax because my eyes tell me they look like the best team right now other than NE/Buff and neither one of them can truly be trusted for different reasons.

jax has some nice wins and they're streaking now. looks like they'll be playing buffalo or sd at home in rd 1. it's now or never for lawrence.

[VaughnP]

With the Falcons win over the Rams last night, they now partially control the Buccaneers' destiny. They are scheduled in the early games against the Saints, and a win would make the Buccs vs Panthers afternoon matchup meaningless. In a Falcons win scenario, the best Tampa could do is a three way tie, and though they would win the tiebreak head to head with Carolina, they lose the way it's calculated including the Falcons in combined head to head win/loss.

[VaughnP]

Embedded Tweet

https://twitter.com/OptaSTATS/status/2008177957148520884