You like to post these 2020/2024 polling comparisons but I would put the chances of the same kinds polling errors existing as in 2016 and 2020 at about zero point zero.Originally Posted by tgull
30-cent move back toward Harris on Pinny in the last 72 hours. Trump now -173. More striking though is a HUGE move toward Harris in Michigan. Trump now +140 after being a slight favorite last weekend. Trump still favored in PA, slightly favored in WI, and a huge favorite in AZ/NC/GA/NV
Undoubtedly there's some arbitraging going on with the national number, and that explains some of it, but I think people are also betting Kamala for value at these prices and I think that's sharp. If I were making book I would make the national number and the Pennsylvania number identical.
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