Quote Originally Posted by abrown83 View Post
Quote Originally Posted by mulva View Post

there's no sweat. biden isn't gonna take any of those. maybe NC but that's been slowly trending trump for quite some time, so i expect trumpy to take it.

if dems think they have a chance to win those states they also have to worry about is a few other states that peeps are randomly just giving to biden where he's a 3-1 fav...but those might be closer than imagined.

make no mistake. trump has to take florida in order to be in the hunt, and i think he will win that state. if he pulls a comeback as a 2-1 dawg in penn, biden is easily in trouble.

i like trumps chances a whole lot to win the whole thing if he takes both fla and penn.....and that also includes him winning the states he's suppose to win.... i think fla is in the bag. penn might be the whole key to the election. there are some other combos that give trump the nod without penn, but those paths looks improbable.


...............so lol @ nate silver giving biden a 90% chance..get bent, silver
Based on early voting returns it looks very likely Trump wins FL. Most states are 60-40 Democrat early voting/absentee, FL is basically 50/50.

Another state I think Trump has wrapped up is TX. People talking about the huge early returns in Texas don’t realize that 90% of that is in person early voting. I think that isn’t the same as Democrat absentee ground game.

I take no strong position on this race. I never have. I was the guy saying we might be better off as Dems if Biden loses through primaries up until Covid. I think Biden wins, but not any strong certainty.

I took Biden 295 by simply adding NC to the 3 key northern battlegrounds and adding NE 02. I think I should have went 294, but I had already posted so I just left it. I don’t expect that extra Maine vote. I kind of picked a number which allowed for 1 of Az or Nc, with me personally liking NC almost as much.

The thing is, the all markets have Trump overpriced according to the data, yet underpriced on margins of victory and things of that nature. Like I don’t think Ohio is correlated heavily to anything, other than just other older white states that don’t have high Hispanic populations, but you can get .45 on Trump over 3.5%. You can get Trump for .29 at 6% or over.


Trump won Iowa by 9.4%, Ohio by over 8% in the same electron he just squeaked by in the big 3, so if you can get over even money for a victory about 5 points lower than last time in Ohio, and over 3-1 for a victory that’s 3.4% less than he received in Iowa last time. If you believe in some systemic polling error, and it wouldn’t shock me at all, these seem like they should be the easiest bets ever.

I don’t believe in how goes Ohio, or Iowa, or any one state, there goes the country. I do think if Trump wins Iowa by 4, and Ohio by 3, which is where the market is putting it, that he has a big problem in all those states he won by less than 1%. There are other factors such as increased voter registration, and the biggest imo, which is increased rural voter registration and participation, which I think is the key to any Trump victory, but those conditions exist in those states also very heavily with large rural areas.

So even in a Trump saturated betting market where I have read double the money is on Trump, he is either underpriced on margins, or I’m going to need someone to explain the logic of him bleeding off half his support in Iowa and Ohio yet winning the other three more Dem friendly states that he won by under 1%.

I added NC just because they have Dem governor, which helps in election matters, got the SC ruling, etc. I picked a number that’s close if he wins one of NC or Az, but not both.

Anyone thinking Trump is drawing live should be taking up those margin bets in Iowa or Ohio if they really believe he’s drawing live, wouldn’t you agree?