I was going to write a marathon posts describing the Ins and Outs of InTrade, but FUCK THAT, I'm just going to post my positions and create a sweat thread. It's pretty simple, if I have a positive share, and the event happens then the share expires at $10. If it doesn't happen it expires at $0. The inverse happens if you have a negative share. To buy 1 share at $7 = $7. To sell 1 share at $7 = $3. For every positive share, there's somebody with a negative share and they always add up to $10. That's about as much as I'll get in to it. Here are my positions so I can be vindicated. Oh, and if you see me having negative shares in an "other" market, you can basically ignore that. It just frees up additional margin. It's complicated.
I'll start off with my only non-political position left. I've been stuck with these shares since I bought them right after I heard about the Colorado shootings, and nobody has been letting me get out of the position at a price I'm okay with. The only movies that have the ability to beat TDKR (have an OW over $161m) now are Twilight Breaking Dawn Pt 2 and The Hobbit. I don't see either being able to do it. Once Twilight falls short on November 19th, this market should trade up in to the 90's.
Definitely my biggest "position" is on Obama being re-elected. A little over a $10k swing on this happening. The $650 in realized gains from Romney is just profit from the primaries.
I think some Gary Johnson nuts are overly optimistic about the voter share he'll receive. He'll probably get more than 0.5%, but hey, I was getting 4 to 1 so why not? I had more shares, but I sold them off (hence the realized profit). Imo, he's a big favorite to get less than 1%, and pretty much a lock to get less than 1.5%. I would prognosticate he'll get somewhere around 0.6% to 0.9% tops.
There's a lot of people out there who think Mitt Romney will win the popular vote, but lose the electoral college. It certainly could happen, but over 20% is way too generous. This market actually traded all the way up to almost 30% at one point. It can actually act as a weird hedge against my Obama general longs because the times I win this bet means I will have lost my Obama general election longs, and the times I lose this bet I will have won my Obama general longs. That is to say, Obama is much more likely to benefit from the electoral college. FTR, Nate Silver puts the odds of this happening at under 7%. I don't agree with that number either, but I think it's less than 15%.
I must have been drunk when I bought this. Free $0.74 I guess. More if I can sell a share of Arizona.Other (they're linked for margining, it's complicated).
This is pretty gambly. Colorado will be close. Would like for Obama to win it. Don't have a whole lot of money on it. $950 to win $1050.
Yeah, my screen on this one looks pretty weird. Basically I was long Romney to win FL, and then I got panicky when it looked like Obama would carry Florida, and then when it went back to like 50/50, I changed my mind and became bullish on Romney again. Would like Romney to win FL. And having -525 Dem shares and -175 Rep shares is the same as having +350 Romney shares. So, would like for Romney to win Florida.
Would like for Obama to win Iowa
Very small position. Would like Obama to win New Hampshire.
Big position here in North Carolina. Have 648 shares of Romney to win NC. I got in at a pretty good level, hence why I have a lot in unrealized gains.
Would like for Obama to win Penn. **Free money alert**
Would like for Romney to win Texas. Will try to get out of this positions if somebody will let me for 0.5% or something.
This is another huge positions of mine. I have just over 700 shares of Obama to win Wisc. Even in a Romney victory, Obama will carry Wisc a good amount of the time. This market actually traded to 50/50 twice in the last month, and I missed it both times. It really belongs at 90/10.
Just a fun little play. Ideal scenario is Obama winning by between 0.5% to 2%. As you can see, I got in at pretty good levels, but just a small play.
I have sentimental feelings towards this market because I got InTrade to create it. At one point I had -20 shares of everything at something like 115%. Basically that means I'm saying there is less than a 115% chance that some state in our nation will have the smallest margin of victory. It's complicated. I bought back some of my Virginia and Colorado shares, so I'm basically long those states now. I'll probably actively trade this market on election day.
This is basically what my "bank" looks like now. I left $1k in there mostly to day-trade a couple markets, and $3k is really my friends who wanted me to place some bets for him. I forget what my account started off as, I think something like $17k. I might put it in to something before Tuesday. I think in an ideal scenario I can get my balance to just over $35k.
Here's basically what a perfect storm would look like. Obama wins the general election, but loses Florida, North Carolina, Texas, and Arizona. The Democrats keep control of the senate and the Republicans keep control of the house. Obama wins Wisconsin, Iowa, Colorado, Pennsylvania, and New Hampshire. There is no Popular Vote / Electoral College split and Gary Johnson gets as few votes as possible. After the election, Twilight comes out and has an Opening Weekend of below $161m.
We are now only 4 more days away from 4 more years!
Also, please keep this thread free of partisan replies. I could care less who you are going to vote for or why. Just vote for who you want and shut up about it already. You are free to say how you feel about one of my positions, but know that I am probably smarter than you and don't really give a shit what you think.