Working hard! Thank you!Quote:
Originally Posted by mulva
thanks for the news flash saying we can ignore certain polls.Quote:
Originally Posted by PLOL
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Working hard! Thank you!Quote:
Originally Posted by mulvathanks for the news flash saying we can ignore certain polls.Quote:
Originally Posted by PLOL
i'm really hoping you say something smart in your next few posts. i really do not want to continue to beat you down.Quote:
Originally Posted by PLOLWorking hard! Thank you!Quote:
Originally Posted by mulva
Woah, I'm quoting our president. Are you saying our president isn't smart? Very disrespectful. You can just wait 52 hours to beat me down when Trump wins big.Quote:
Originally Posted by mulvai'm really hoping you say something smart in your next few posts. i really do not want to continue to beat you down.Quote:
Originally Posted by PLOL
Given the choice between laying 100-1 on JB winning CA I'd prefer to lay 7,8, or 9-1 on Biden winning the popular vote
Lot less risk for roughly the same value
IMO trump has about as much chance to win the national vote as he does of winning CA so why not lay 9 or 10-1 instead of 100-1?
Because he’s 10 times more likely to win the popular vote than California.Quote:
Originally Posted by big dick
But I don't think he is
That's my point
If Biden loses the popular vote Then CA would have to play a pivotal role in him doing so.
Personally I never lay huge odds on any bet but that's just me . I'd rather find a +ev bet where I'm the one with the large payday if the unexpected happens
disclaimer- I'm a professional poker player and a decent gambler but not a professional sports bettor
Which Party Will Win The Popular Vote In The 2020 Presidential Election?
11/2/20
11:00 PM
Popular Vote Winner
Democrats -700
Republicans +425
Total votes tabulated by the Federal Election Commission for all states and the District of Columbia.
US 2020 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION -TO WIN POPULAR VOTE
Joe Biden
-871
Donald Trump
+564
Kamala Harris
+14500
Mike Pence
+200000
Have a hunch? Bet a bunch!Quote:
Originally Posted by big dick
I can’t put a number on which is the better bet by the numbers. I don’t think Trump has a fucking prayer at winning the popular vote but at -800 I’m going to pass because shit happens.
Now with that being said if you offered me -800 on California I’d jump on it.
Trump wins the popular vote
Regardless of whether he wins the Electoral College
3 in 100
Biden wins the popular vote
Regardless of whether he wins the Electoral College
97 in 100
Trump wins more than 50% of the popular vote
Regardless of whether he wins the Electoral College
2 in 100
Biden wins more than 50% of the popular vote
Regardless of whether he wins the Electoral College
95 in 100
Trump wins in a landslide
Defined as winning the popular vote by a double-digit margin
<1 in 100
Biden wins in a landslide
Defined as winning the popular vote by a double-digit margin
27 in 100
Trump wins the popular vote but loses the Electoral College <1 in 100
Biden wins the popular vote but loses the Electoral College 8 in 100
No one wins the Electoral College
No candidate gets 270 electoral votes and Congress decides the election
<1 in 100
Trump wins at least one state that Clinton won in 2016 25 in 100
Biden wins at least one state that Trump won in 2016 98 in 100
The map stays exactly the same as it was in 2016
Each candidate wins exactly the same states that his party won in 2016
<1 in 100
The election hinges on a recount
Candidates are within half a percentage point in one or more decisive states
4 in 100
But sure go ahead and lay 100-1 instead of 8-1
I wouldn't bet either but like I said if I were to bet Id bet the 8.-1 on national popular vote
Betonline
https://www.betonline.ag/news-room/p...-election-day/Quote:
Since Monday, 85 percent of the presidential bets have been on Trump, which has greatly swung the numbers in terms of liability. As of this post, BetOnline stands to lose a sum in the low seven figures if Trump is re-elected.
“Political stances aside, we’re all rooting for the favorite next week,” Mason said. “That’s uncommon in our industry,but we need Biden in a big way.”
The 2020 Presidential Election is close to becoming the biggest decision in BetOnline’s 20-year history of bookmaking. The political betting markets this year have already surpassed the straight bet handle for Super Bowl LIV. In total, the website has booked an amount in the mid eight-figure range.
i think texas to biden is a pipedream. but while nothing is a lock, all the data i've seen and read makes a florida win seem like cake win, and you're still getting good odds. things did not turn out well for the dems in the early voting in some parts. so much so that it might be already over. i lose big if trump doesn't win floridaQuote:
Originally Posted by abrown83Based on early voting returns it looks very likely Trump wins FL. Most states are 60-40 Democrat early voting/absentee, FL is basically 5Quote:
Originally Posted by mulva
ariz isn't looking good either for them. but the push for trump in pennsylvania is getting stronger as well.
0/50.
Another state I think Trump has wrapped up is TX. People talking about the huge early returns in Texas don’t realize that 90% of that is in person early voting. I think that isn’t the same as Democrat absentee ground game.
ariz is also trending trump......the biden peeps have their heads down in key states. i love seeing under performance from key demographics that he needs to win
and my god......to see all those crowds in NC. i mean, c'mon. a line 1/2 mile long line to get in to see trump.............wow..
as for penn. the overall feeling and momentum that i get is a spirited fighting chance that can go either way right now
polls..lol..just look at the rally's......also every other peep in fla has a truck with a trump flag..
This is quickly becoming Floyd vs McGreggor all over again.Quote:
Originally Posted by Sanlmar
Plop where you seeing the most value on predictit on election eve?
Hard to say without my crystal ball. The site may not even be functional. In general, I think it's wise to stay away from trading during the election. I won't be doing much of it. The swings happen too fast and the spreads get too wide. Definitely don't make a trade based on something the public is seeing on CNN.Quote:
Originally Posted by Sheesfaced
One of PLOL’s greatest gifts that keeps on giving has been this podcast.
I see another one has dropped. Check out this description. Such beautiful prose.
Quote:
However, one of my biggest disagreements with Zoltar is over learning, which I am opposed to. This is due to the fact that Zoltar is one of the top researchers in political gambling, at least when it comes to doing deep dives on conspiracy theories and un-sourced internet stories, which are exactly the same things that 99 percent of Floridians use to make their voting choices.
https://starspangledgamblers.com/202...oject-is-here/
Sorry if I missed it elsewhere. It’s looking like this is moving against us. I can get +150 now. Thoughts?Quote:
Originally Posted by PLOLHope you listened. It dropped to +110 (still good value btw)Quote:
Originally Posted by PLOL
Bet it. As long as it's an amt you're comfortable losing. It's good value.Quote:
Originally Posted by jsearles22Sorry if I missed it elsewhere. It’s looking like this is moving against us. I can get +150 now. Thoughts?Quote:
Originally Posted by PLOL
Are you still as confident as you were? Like I just listened to your star spangled gambler podcast and the trump dude was highly confident and the other dudes said nothing and then it was like they just decided to cancel the podcast and say fuck it.Quote:
Originally Posted by PLOLBet it. As long as it's an amt you're comfortable losing. It's good value.Quote:
Originally Posted by jsearles22
I am watching the markets, and looking at the models where Nate is. 89/10 and stuff like the economist is 19/20 Biden wins and someone is going to be wrong in the most major of ways possible. Trump bettors are clearly flooding the market with money and either they’re going to be slaughtered or no one is ever going to take a poll seriously again. Are you still all in? Are you buying more if so? Biden just keeps getting cheaper. Never seen such a disconnect. Even last time wasn’t this much of a disconnect .
The chance of him winning the popular vote is high, but not as high as winning CA, which is a lock. It's greater than 99% that he wins California.Quote:
Originally Posted by big dick
This is a weird election for many reasons. Turnout will likely be a lot higher. You'd think the turnout would favor Biden, but it's not certain. It's possible that this "silent majority" really exists, and they'll show up for Trump. It's much more likely Biden wins the popular vote, yes, but it's not the same as CA, where Biden is so far ahead that he basically can't lose.
Here's a cheat sheet for how quickly you can expect results in every state, and in which direction the initial count will be skewed. For instance, Florida will likely show Biden with a large lead, even if he loses the state or wins it by a narrow margin.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...esults-timing/
I'm surprised you aren't taking this info and punishing sportsbooks or people on predict it who are reading into early results.Quote:
Originally Posted by PLOL
Say if Florida shows huge Biden early on, buy some Trump and sell for a profit at some point?
I expect sportsbooks to take their lines offline before the polls close. Dunno if any do live betting.Quote:
Originally Posted by simpdogI'm surprised you aren't taking this info and punishing sportsbooks or people on predict it who are reading into early results.Quote:
Originally Posted by PLOL
Say if Florida shows huge Biden early on, buy some Trump and sell for a profit at some point?
This is a good idea in theory, and it would've worked in 2016. However, I think this info is much more public this time around so people may not rush to buy Biden if they see him up in Florida and North Carolina initially. However, if they do, it would be a good time to sell Biden or buy Trump. But also that assumes the site will be functional.
Also, PSA, PredictIt will go offline for "maintenance" between 4am and 5am on November 4th. This is a huge fail on their part. In 2016 the race got called at 2:29am. Very possible the race gets called while the site is down for maintenance this year.
:fail2
I made my greatest bet again Brandon Mifsud. He bet me that somebody other than Trump or Biden will win.... at even odds. If either Trump or Biden wins, I win the bet. And he made this bet like a month ago. Free $100 lol (and he sent first).
Now he's trying to give me +115 that I can't predict every state on PredictIt that's trading at 89c+. Dunno what true odds are, but pretty sure I'm a pretty big favorite. Have to nail this map exactly right.
Quote:
Originally Posted by PLOLI made my greatest bet again Brandon Mifsud. He bet me that somebody other than Trump or Biden will win.... at even odds. If either Trump or Biden wins, I win the bet. And he made this bet like a month ago. Free $100 lol (and he sent first).
Now he's trying to give me +115 that I can't predict every state on PredictIt that's trading at 89c+. Dunno what true odds are, but pretty sure I'm a pretty big favorite. Have to nail this map exactly right.
My jaw would hit the floor if any of these are wrong.
I know it's not the same but laying 100-1 and 8-1 are def not the sameQuote:
Originally Posted by Dan DruffThe chance of him winning the popular vote is high, but not as high as winning CA, which is a lock. It's greater than 99% that he wins California.Quote:
Originally Posted by big dick
This is a weird election for many reasons. Turnout will likely be a lot higher. You'd think the turnout would favor Biden, but it's not certain. It's possible that this "silent majority" really exists, and they'll show up for Trump. It's much more likely Biden wins the popular vote, yes, but it's not the same as CA, where Biden is so far ahead that he basically can't lose.
Quote:
Originally Posted by PLOLI made my greatest bet again Brandon Mifsud. He bet me that somebody other than Trump or Biden will win.... at even odds. If either Trump or Biden wins, I win the bet. And he made this bet like a month ago. Free $100 lol (and he sent first).
Now he's trying to give me +115 that I can't predict every state on PredictIt that's trading at 89c+. Dunno what true odds are, but pretty sure I'm a pretty big favorite. Have to nail this map exactly right.
wow u would know that scammer
good for u tho, the only bets you'll win so u can send me $250
That +115 odds on every state trading 89%+ is excellent.
Tell the guy I'll take any action on this that you don't want.
LETS GO TRUMP
I think a lot of hidden value exists in Congressional and Senate races if you know what you're doing.
For example, I saw value in Kysrten Sinema (Krypt's favorite bisexual politician) in 2018, and made some $ there.
PLOL (or anyone else), thoughts?
I wish I jumped on Joni Ernst when I meant to do so, but I forgot.
BTW Predictit is super slow tonight, as usual when there's high traffic. Tomorrow it should be a disaster.
I'll start off.
Let's take CA-25 House district, an overlooked race for betting.
CA-25 is a purple district, which encompasses the southern California cities of Simi Valley (northeastern Ventura County), Santa Clarita (Newhall/Valencia/Canyon Country/Saugus/etc), and Lancaster/Palmdale (Antelope Valley).
It came to national attention when freshman Congresswoman Katie Hill was embroiled in a weird sex scandal, which saw her accused of having romantic/sexual relationships with both a female campaign worker AND a male staffer.
Hill resigned, most likely because the relationship with the male staffer was illegal (due to a 2018 anti-sexual-harassment law), and she might have faced all kinds of legal issues if she didn't resign.
A special election was held, where Republican Mike Garcia crushed Democrat Christy Smith by something like 13 points. However, turnout was low, whereas turnout will be very high this time around. Furthermore, turnout skewed Republican in the special election, because those voters were more motivated to show up, given that it had been a Democrat who resigned in disgrace.
The two are now facing each other months later, in a second election -- this time with Smith challenging Garcia's bid for reelection.
Mike Garcia is actually a good candidate:
1) He's the better candidate with a good resume
2) He's Hispanic
3) The district is more red than blue, and Katie Hill was more of an anomaly who managed to overperform. Keep in mind that, before the scandal, Katie was considered a quickly rising star in the Democratic Party.
4) He's the incumbent (albeit only for a very short time).
I have spent substantial time in 2 of the 3 areas of this district (Simi Valley and Santa Clarita), and know it well.
The Democrats in these places are not your typical California coastal leftists. They're more of the working class variety, especially in Lancaster/Palmdale. These type of Democrats don't care about social justice or making over the country into something different. They simply want jobs and a better life.
Lancaster/Palmdale is over 1/4 Hispanic, so that should help Garcia against his white Democratic opponent.
There's also still some remaining bitterness in the area regarding the Katie Hill situation. Katie never apologized for her behavior, never really took responsibility for her mistakes, and has since gone on to a career of playing professional victim, complete with a movie deal (not joking).
Swing voters in this district feel duped. They voted for a charismatic, young, energetic Democrat who said all the right things, and they ended up getting a salacious sex scandal in return. While this isn't Christy Smith's fault, I have to imagine that Republicans who pulled the lever for Hill last time aren't going to do it for a Democrat this time. This is part of the reason Smith lost so badly last time.
Is this a lock? No. It mostly hinges on turnout. But look at this:
https://twitter.com/CA_120/status/1322687819169505280
After it looked terrible for Garcia in the early voting statistics, now Republicans actually have had more voters than Democrats in CA-25! Wow!
And you can get "DEMOCRATS NO" for slightly better than even money right now!
I only wish I saw this a few days ago, when PredictIt hadn't caught on yet, and it was trading at 36c. Right now it's at 48c (I got it at 47c).
I still think it's excellent value. Garcia is going to crush this if more Republicans are showing up to the polls in CA-25, which looks likely.
https://www.predictit.org/markets/de...-25th-district
You're welcome.
Next, let's look at Montana Senate.
It's a tale of two Steves -- Daines (R) and Bullock (D).
Of note is the latest poll by Change Research, which only has a C- rating on 538, but part of the criticism stems from it leaning too much Dem. However, despite that lean, their latest poll shows Daines up 4.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...enate/montana/
Additionally, Trump is expected to carry Montana fairly easily (if you don't believe it, you can get better than 10:1 on Predictit!) This speaks well for Daines' edge, as he isn't likely to lose due to an anti-Trump voting surge.
I got BULLOCK NO at 63c, which is -170. I don't love laying that price, but I really don't see Daines losing here. You can get him right now at 64c.
daines is -255 @ bookmaker
I'm not too active in the senate now, I don't see much screaming value there anymore. I think Republicans were generally undervalued there previously, but the market seems to have mostly corrected. I sold off my Daines shares for 69 cents. Holding my Lindsey shares until expiration.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
I see Dems just jumped to 57 cents in Georgia "senate special". I'd look in to "no" shares there. If Biden wins the general there will probably be some Democratic laziness in the offseason and I would expect the turnout to favor Republicans. However, I haven't looked in to this race much as I'm not trading it, but that's my hunch.
Still just so much value in maxing Wisconsin, Michigan, Minnesota.
I don't know about the value in MN anymore. Even Biden wasn't confident enough to skip it. It's 74c for NO on Biden now, so that's really not returning much.
The 67c NO on Trump in MI looks better.
Actually the 67c Trump NO in WI is probably the best of the 3. Even the Republican leaning polls show him losing there.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
I read up on that Garcia race. HeÂ’s a legit candidate. There isnÂ’t anything wrong with the Dem candidate either, as far as she doesnÂ’t seem extremist or a nutbar from what I read. Came up through more traditional political channels. I actually had exactly him in mind as the template of the type of candidate the GOP will have to run in the future when I look at somewhere like Texas and the changing demographics of the southwest.
I have no idea why when I lose a post I get the crazy typo when I sign back in and hit submit.
Christy Smith isn't a bad candidate. She's just not as good as the Republican, and they're still bitter over there about what happened with Katie Hill.
The fact that Republican turnout has already passed Democratic turnout in that district is a really good sign for Garcia.