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I doQuote:
Originally Posted by tgull
No, I do not know how people voted in a confidential vote. Go back to night wrestling dudes at the gym.Quote:
Originally Posted by big dick
https://www.meme-arsenal.com/memes/a...a595d8e23c.jpg
15-20 % are voting for VP Harris
im way smarter than you
bring back that white trashcan rot gut drinker tyde
Fucking frank luntz
you better bring better than that pal if you decide to step up against me again
fkin frank luntz
Wouldn’t that mostly be attributable to Covid fear and the goofy election rules last timeQuote:
Originally Posted by tgull
These were the 2016 voting demographics.
ChatGPT:
Quote:
While precise percentages for male vs. female early and Election Day voting can vary by election cycle, some recent data offers a general estimate. In the 2020 U.S. election, for example:
1. **Early Voting**:
- Women made up **about 54-55%** of early and mail-in voters.
- Men comprised approximately **45-46%** of early and mail-in voters.
2. **Election Day Voting**:
- Men made up a slightly larger share of in-person Election Day voters, comprising roughly **52-53%**.
- Women accounted for approximately **47-48%** of Election Day voters.
These percentages show that while women are more likely to vote early, men make up a greater share of those voting on Election Day. This pattern can vary slightly by state and election type (e.g., midterms vs. presidential), but these figures provide a general trend seen in recent high-turnout elections.
2020.
What does this mean? That unless you believe Kamala is doing better with white women than Biden and Hilldawg, then spinning the battleground turn out so far by gender as some kind of positive for her is literally retarded. It's actually the opposite, and then remember all the indicators of Trump performing significantly better this time among blacks and Hispanics. Factor those increases into both sides of the gender equation. The betting markets have fell for these gender gaps and the usual suspect state polling released over the last two days.
The amount of propaganda being released is at an all time high. Trump has never in any of the previous elections had anywhere close to as clear of a lead than he does now.
https://x.com/CitizenFreePres/status...91134257857010
She's crushing it guys.
Signs couldn't be stronger for Trump in PA: #NEW FINAL PENNSYLVANIA poll 🔴 Trump: 49% (=) 🔵 Harris: 49% Last poll: Harris+3 Bellwethers: 🔴 Northampton: Trump+2 (last poll: Harris+5) 🟡 Erie: Tie (last poll: Harris+4) Suffolk/USA Today | 10/27-30 | N=500LV
Looks like Trump's PA lead had slipped in the betting markets in PA. Something about early voting.
https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images...e539e2f797.png
Marist’s final rust belt polls, 2020 vs 2024: 2020: MI: 🟦 biden+8 | PA: 🟦 biden+5 | WI: 🟦 biden+10 --- 2024: MI: 🟦 harris+3 | PA: 🟦 harris+2 | WI: 🟦 harris+2
#NEW FINAL NORTH CAROLINA poll 🔴 Trump: 50% (+3) 🔵 Harris: 47% @Rasmussen_Poll | 10/25-30 | N=751LV
Eric Daugherty @EricLDaugh #NEW FINAL PENNSYLVANIA poll 🔴Trump: 49% (+2) 🔵 Harris: 47% @Rasmussen_Poll | 10/25-28 | N=849LV
Grifters like Kirk (both sides have them) say whatever makes them the most money. IF is an all time cover your ass statement.Quote:
Originally Posted by tgull
I remember when he and the other grifters said the election was “over” the day Trump was shot and the incredible picture of his fist in the air was shown. Now it’s not even talked about. So why isn’t it “over”?
Bottom line is the smart money is betting on Kamala as a dog now because all she needs is to sweep PA,MI and WI. They are really the only 3 states that matter at this point. And I see her pulling all 3 out by less than 75,000 votes total. Not easy by any means but I personally don’t trust the GOP to do a better job than the libs to get their voters out in those 3 states until they prove otherwise.
I truly hope I lose my bets for the future of America.
I disagree, I actually agree with James Carville. The most least likely scenario is 4-3 in the battlegrounds. It is shaping up to be 7-0, and one side will be routed.Quote:
Originally Posted by The BozGrifters like Kirk (both sides have them) say whatever makes them the most money. IF is an all time cover your ass statement.Quote:
Originally Posted by tgull
I remember when he and the other grifters said the election was “over” the day Trump was shot and the incredible picture of his fist in the air was shown. Now it’s not even talked about. So why isn’t it “over”?
Bottom line is the smart money is betting on Kamala as a dog now because all she needs is to sweep PA,MI and WI. They are really the only 3 states that matter at this point. And I see her pulling all 3 out by less than 75,000 votes total. Not easy by any means but I personally don’t trust the GOP to do a better job than the libs to get their voters out in those 3 states until they prove otherwise.
I truly hope I lose my bets for the future of America.
You like to post these 2020/2024 polling comparisons but I would put the chances of the same kinds polling errors existing as in 2016 and 2020 at about zero point zero.Quote:
Originally Posted by tgull
30-cent move back toward Harris on Pinny in the last 72 hours. Trump now -173. More striking though is a HUGE move toward Harris in Michigan. Trump now +140 after being a slight favorite last weekend. Trump still favored in PA, slightly favored in WI, and a huge favorite in AZ/NC/GA/NV
Undoubtedly there's some arbitraging going on with the national number, and that explains some of it, but I think people are also betting Kamala for value at these prices and I think that's sharp. If I were making book I would make the national number and the Pennsylvania number identical.
Other than 'your gut feeling' what empirical data do you have to suggest that polling has improved since 2016? It was actually worse in 2020 and they had 4 years to fix it then.Quote:
Originally Posted by go_buccosYou like to post these 2020/2024 polling comparisons but I would put the chances of the same kinds polling errors existing as in 2016 and 2020 at about zero point zero.Quote:
Originally Posted by tgull
The betting markets are my empirical data.Quote:
Originally Posted by tgullOther than 'your gut feeling' what empirical data do you have to suggest that polling has improved since 2016? It was actually worse in 2020 and they had 4 years to fix it then.Quote:
Originally Posted by go_buccos
If the same kinds of errors existed this year Trump would be -800 right now.
Temper this by taking a moment to remember the savagery that occurred in the betting markets the night of the election 2016.Quote:
Originally Posted by go_buccosThe betting markets are my empirical data.Quote:
Originally Posted by tgull
If the same kinds of errors existed this year Trump would be -800 right now.
For those who were there that night this recollection will temper any hubris that threatens to overcome you. The betting markets are not necessarily truth.
It was like the 9/11 of political wagering. We all recall where we were
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GbQMGrrW...jpg&name=large
but yeah guys its razor close
A chubby little girl with an ill fitting suit jacket and an earpiece standing behind the red tie and you really have some da Vinci grade artQuote:
Originally Posted by sonatine
I think Trump has recently seen some internal data that shows he's losing. He's given up on his "too big to rig" talk in the last few rallies. Now he's talking about election integrity.
Is Trump “election integrity” news cycle or is he really ramping that talk up. That is not a positive Trump look or memoryQuote:
Originally Posted by RichardBrodiesCombover.
Feels like media. Oops, I just remembered Rogan drew this out of him.
Quote:
Originally Posted by SanlmarIs Trump “election integrity” news cycle or is he really ramping that talk up. That is not a positive Trump look or memoryQuote:
Originally Posted by RichardBrodiesCombover.
He's definitely ramping it up. I admit I listen to his rallies on YouTube. It's important to know that this lunatic is saying. He's basically given up on the "too big to rig" rhetoric in the last 5 rallies.
It was 90:10 Clinton the day of election. Bettors are wrong all the time. The best indicator really is where the candidates are going, I made a post the weekend before the 2016 election saying it was suspicious that Clinton was in PA with Jay Z and Trump was basically camping out in MI. I got the requisite response "those are deep blue states". Now in 2024 Trump making a visit to New Mexico, Bill Clinton and Biden spending time in NH, and the Governor of VA going to Court to get 1,600 non citizens off the voter rolls is revealing. Probably not going to win those states, but everyone obsesses about the rust belt. However if Trump sweeps the sun belt and surprises with NH, he wins the election without MI, WI, PA. There is always a surprise state in these things. With that said, I still think its not going to be close in one direction or the other. Someone is likely going to be north of 300 EVs. One thing you gotta give Trump, he turned the Republican party of the middle class, and the Dems into the party of the elite and foreign intervention. How times have changed since I was a kid.Quote:
Originally Posted by SanlmarTemper this by taking a moment to remember the savagery that occurred in the betting markets the night of the election 2016.Quote:
Originally Posted by go_buccos
For those who were there that night this recollection will temper any hubris that threatens to overcome you. The betting markets are not necessarily truth.
It was like the 9/11 of political wagering. We all recall where we were
It's polls like this that drive me nuts. Just like the CNN poll saying Harris was up by 6 in WI earlier this week. Both are totally wrong but they publish them anyway:
Nevada: Trump vs. Harris
Susquehanna
Trump 50, Harris 44
Trump
+6
I picked the perfect year to cancel my cable subscription. CNN and FOX still around? How do they eat these days?
Fox is getting awful. Their staple morning show. Fox and Friends has been contaminated by super dweeb Steve Doocey who earlier this year decided to become a skeptical republican and challenge everything and take the Dems side. Which would be fine if he had done that since the show's inception since 1998. Obviously someone this year told his this was his new role, it's contrived bullshit. CNN, is unwatchable. Don't take my word for it, they barely have any viewership left. I would not be surprised to see Elon buy it when it hits the auction block.Quote:
Originally Posted by Sanlmar
You're correct of course, and the books took an absolute bath in 2016.Quote:
Originally Posted by SanlmarTemper this by taking a moment to remember the savagery that occurred in the betting markets the night of the election 2016.Quote:
Originally Posted by go_buccos
For those who were there that night this recollection will temper any hubris that threatens to overcome you. The betting markets are not necessarily truth.
It was like the 9/11 of political wagering. We all recall where we were
They self-corrected in 2020 though. (at least partially) A significant Dem polling error was accounted for that year. Biden closed somewhere around -230 when the first polls opened IIRC. If the polling tgull refers to was accurate (it obviously wasn't) Biden would have been -1000 the morning of.
I of course could be very wrong, but for the most part I think the books are pricing this election at least somewhat accurately.
#NEW FINAL poll - American swing counties 🔴 Trump: 47% (+1) 🔵 Harris: 46% Who is your neighbor voting for? 🔴 Trump: 51% (+7) 🔵 Harris: 44% Redfield & Wilton | 10/21-23 | N=1,400LV
Obviously a major longshot for Trump, but this is why he went to Albuquerque. I went to Albuquerque in 1999 as a young man for business. A really nice city TBH.
New Mexico: Trump vs. Harris KOB-TV/SurveyUSA
Harris 50, Trump 44
Harris +6
People need to remember ABC News released a poll three days before the 2020 election that had Biden up by 17 in WI. Yes, 17 in WI. He 'won' by .07. Those are the facts. Right now I am hearing polls in PA might be released to show Harris up by 7 in PA this weekend. Yes 7. Just watch, then the MSM will say the election is over.Quote:
Originally Posted by tgull
This is big
https://x.com/Teed_PI/status/1852480877290205544
That is about as reliable as this poll just released. There is no methodology whatsoever on either side:Quote:
Originally Posted by PLOL
#NEW FINAL PENNSYLVANIA poll 🔴 Trump: 52% (+6) 🔵 Harris: 46% Echelon Insights | 10/27-30 | N=600LV
Electoral Map Based on Final Trafalgar/Insider Advantage polling Trump 306 Harris 232
Quote:
Originally Posted by tgull
lol
That's fairQuote:
Originally Posted by tgullThat is about as reliable as this poll just released. There is no methodology whatsoever on either side:Quote:
Originally Posted by PLOL
Electoral Map Based on Final Trafalgar/Insider Advantage polling Trump 306 Harris 232
This is what you call leadership. I have not seen anyone like him since Churchill.
https://x.com/BehizyTweets/status/18...0d8f8c751c458b
Sportsbooks (which are slightly different in reaction time than Poly) are no longer dealing Harris +150’s. Im seeing +140 and +145.
That makes Trump -175 in most spots so its not like the market makers thinking has changed *that* much, but its definitely a shift-over the last 36 hours