bro are dudes gay wives on the table right now?
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bro are dudes gay wives on the table right now?
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Hopefully this ends the "Is Florida in play" bullshit:
Florida: Trump vs. Harris Univ. of North Florida Trump 53, Harris 43 Trump +10
The funny thing is, if the Dems just had some self control and let Biden get to the second debate, they'd be in a much better position. What should have happened is Biden ditch Harris and put the black Governor from Maryland on the ticket. Then people could say yeah Joe is senile but there is someone competent to take over when he completely loses his mind. Now you have someone at the top of the ticket who is completely incompetent and a closeted gay man as her running mate. Has there been a worse Presidential ticket than Harris/Walz? I mean think about it. With Trump you have someone who was already President and the world was in good shape. Vance, you have a former Marine, and graduated top of his class of Yale Law School and a best selling author. This is a rare case where you vote for the VP, and its not even close. Unless of course you are a closeted gay man.Quote:
Originally Posted by Tellafriend
Quote:
Originally Posted by tony bagadonuts
had it been biden v trump, who were you going to vote for?
This is why people don't trust MSM polling. WA Post had Trump down by 17 points the week before the 2020 election in WI. He lost by .07. I have no idea what is accurate with these guys. Trump down by 6 points in GA? Really, who believes that? To be fair, I don't think Trump is up by 6 in AZ either. Yeah up in MI for Trump, down in PA. These polls by the MSM are just awful.
https://x.com/PollTracker2024/status...28561322532890
Florida early voting is now R+15. FL is going to be a historic Trump blowout. I think he wins the state maybe 58-42. Don't think he gets to the 60 mark but it was hilarious to see the DrudgeReport running articles a couple weeks ago suggesting FL was in play. By the way, Drudge is no longer owned by Matt Drudge, he sold it in 2020 to one of the original employees of Google which is why the site is now far left leaning and lost over 50% of its viewership.
This the #1 betting market in the world, at least for politics. Polymarket:
Donald Trump
$686,116,303 Vol.
62.3%
Kamala Harris
$440,892,181 Vol.
37.6%
🚨 NEW 2024 PENNSYLVANIA GENERAL ELECTION POLL: QUANTUS INSIGHTS 🚨
🔴 Trump: 50.3%
🔵 Harris: 48.2%
🟡 Other: 1.5%
——
Who do you think most of your friends or neighbors will vote for? <----------------- These traditionally have been the most accurate polling questions.
🔴 Trump: 52%
🔵 Harris: 46%
🟡 Not sure: 2%
CNN says if election held today, Trump would get 312 electoral votes.
https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images...c2aa273c95.jpg
Every betting site and now probability sites are going to Trump.
https://x.com/EricLDaugh/status/1848460906285433076
In other words….a Fucking tossup.Quote:
Originally Posted by tgull
I guess this makes you feel better each day. Maybe instead of posting this garbage hourly you go out and knock some doors for Trump. That might make a difference as opposed to trolling here all day with garbage polls.
I did knock on 8 doors today, gave them Trump flyers. 7 took them and one wadded it up in my face. I almost kicked the fucking shit out of him. In the meantime go back to trolling the broke slot woman Kelly Nathan, you do that well.Quote:
Originally Posted by The BozIn other words….a Fucking tossup.Quote:
Originally Posted by tgull
I guess this makes you feel better each day. Maybe instead of posting this garbage hourly you go out and knock some doors for Trump. That might make a difference as opposed to trolling here all day with garbage polls.
This an awful poll for Harris, it might be close to over for her, not that it ever began. I am not sure why the resident white guys here are so distressed, but begin your copium. You can begin to rejoin society after your anguish comes to an end. Like any disease TDS will not last forever. Unless fatal and you blow your brains out.
NEW New Mexico poll 🔵 Harris: 49% (+3) 🔴 Trump: 46% 🟡 Undecided: 3% 🟢 Other: 1% 2020: Biden+11
Quote:
Originally Posted by The BozIn other words….a Fucking tossup.Quote:
Originally Posted by tgull
I guess this makes you feel better each day. Maybe instead of posting this garbage hourly you go out and knock some doors for Trump. That might make a difference as opposed to trolling here all day with garbage polls.
The race is not a toss up. She is polling 3 or 4 points worse in the battleground states on average than Biden did in 2020. The public polling, despite the multitude of intentionally biased, fake, partisan pollsters, is starting to reflect what the Trump internal polling has had since she entered the race. This is three straight elections of these polls conveniently tightening to save face as the campaigns end. Trump's internals were leaked several times, +2 or so across all seven states.
You won't sway any Never Trumper on this site. They just don't care about the working man, in fact they demean him, make fun of him, etc.. Not much you can do, they laugh at the worker, I even overheard a lady, true story, call them peasants outside a grocery store. There were some well to do women saying 'damn right, fuck 'em'' this is a true story. I was appalled.Quote:
Originally Posted by VaughnPQuote:
Originally Posted by The Boz
The race is not a toss up. She is polling 3 or 4 points worse in the battleground states on average than Biden did in 2020. The public polling, despite the multitude of intentionally biased, fake, partisan pollsters, is starting to reflect what the Trump internal polling has had since she entered the race. This is three straight elections of these polls conveniently tightening to save face as the campaigns end. Trump's internals were leaked several times, +2 or so across all seven states.
Quote:
Originally Posted by tgullYou won't sway any Never Trumper on this site. They just don't care about the working man, in fact they demean him, make fun of him, etc.. Not much you can do, they laugh at the worker, I even overheard a lady, true story, call them peasants outside a grocery store. There were some well to do women saying 'damn right, fuck 'em'' this is a true story. I was appalled.Quote:
Originally Posted by VaughnP
The race is not a toss up. She is polling 3 or 4 points worse in the battleground states on average than Biden did in 2020. The public polling, despite the multitude of intentionally biased, fake, partisan pollsters, is starting to reflect what the Trump internal polling has had since she entered the race. This is three straight elections of these polls conveniently tightening to save face as the campaigns end. Trump's internals were leaked several times, +2 or so across all seven states.
That’s the point dude, you are wasting your time posting this garbage. No one here is changing their minds.
And 8 doors? Christ I do 75-100 doors a day when I go out for a GOP Congressional candidate. And will probably double it the next 2 weeks.
Put some fucking effort in and stop thinking this thing is over, or all you will be doing is crying “rigged” on the morning after.
Fucking polls are worthless.
The 2022 argument is nonsensical, it was not a Presidential year. In 2016 and 2020, the MSM polling vastly understated Trump. I mean the week before the election the WA Post polling said he was losing WI by 17 points. He lost by under 1%. Only a 16 point miss. Now the AJC in their final poll has Trump up by 4 whereas the WA Post has Harris up by 6. If you don't think the MSM is making a concerted effort to tilt the election I really don't know what to tell you. I just watched MSNBC where they claimed Trump if elected would turn the military on people that disagreed with him. The sad thing is people like Cleatus actually believe that. This tool you referenced is trying his best to justify Trumps lead is fake, because of a 2022 election where he was not on the ballot. Like I said if you believe that you really cannot be helped.Quote:
Originally Posted by garrett
Tgull every Major Massive United States City across the land votes Democratic come Election day, why Flyover/Swing States matter so much for Republicans..
As is Harris will win every Major US City there is period it happens every election, big Cities Vote Blue, without fail in the U.S. now having said that you have the Flyover/Swing States which matter greatly here. You're going to see Harris/Waltz will win every Major Metropolitan City in the U.S. as they do every election, and will this one too.
Have a nice day
https://static01.nyt.com/images/2016...okJumbo-v3.pngQuote:
Originally Posted by garrett
Tuesday, October 22
Georgia: Trump vs. Harris
Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Trump 47, Harris 43
Trump
+4
Michigan: Trump vs. Harris
Trafalgar Group (R)
Trump 46, Harris 44
Trump
+2
New York: Trump vs. Harris
Siena
Harris 58, Trump 39
Harris
+19
National: Trump vs. Harris
TIPP
Harris 48, Trump 48
Tie
National: Trump vs. Harris
Reuters/Ipsos
Harris 48, Trump 45
Harris
+3
Quote:
Originally Posted by tgull
Who does a final poll 2 weeks before the election? So much can still happen. And 8% undecided? So you as a polling group aren’t going to see if they make up their mind? So theoretically Harris could get 51% IF they all swing her way? Not going to ask why it only goes to 99%, yea I understand but why not show the exact numbers?
If Trump loses it’s because of all the pre Election Day celebrations by idiots like this guy thinking the polls and betting markets have it locked up.
You don't really know much about polling, obviously. It's very expensive to conduct polls, so most firms cut off polling when early voting starts. The trend is already set, Trump will likely sweep the rustbelt. Whether he holds NC not sure, but it really might likely not matter.Quote:
Originally Posted by The BozQuote:
Originally Posted by tgull
Who does a final poll 2 weeks before the election? So much can still happen. And 8% undecided? So you as a polling group aren’t going to see if they make up their mind? So theoretically Harris could get 51% IF they all swing her way? Not going to ask why it only goes to 99%, yea I understand but why not show the exact numbers?
If Trump loses it’s because of all the pre Election Day celebrations by idiots like this guy thinking the polls and betting markets have it locked up.
AZ is absolutely lost for Harris:
Wow : NEW Arizona early voting update 🔴 Republican: 42.7% (214,915) 🔵 Democratic: 35.9% (180,796) Mail-in ballot return rate: 🔴 Republican: 18% 🔵 Democratic: 16.8%
Quote:
Originally Posted by tgull
If trump truly has a lock on Arizona the election has a chance to be called at 9PM.
Ive seen some writings that are saying North Carolina is all but decided.
If one of the networks is ready to call PA early or a shocking Virginia we may all be in bed early.
The early vote numbers are certainly interesting. But do they signal a change in how Republicans vote or is this an indication of their enthusiasm?
We won’t know until election night and the morning after but I doubt Dems are feeling good about it.
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaig...ing-democrats/
Kamala simply has too much ground to make up. It's effectively over. Trump is going to sweep the rustbelt. She really has no path to victory. I'll post a few more polls in this thread, but its almost a waste of time at this point. The only suspense is the margin of victory for Trump.
Quote:
Originally Posted by sonatine
I think AZ, GA, NC, and NV are just about in the bag for Trump at this point, while Virginia, New Hampshire, and Nebraska 2 are in the bag for Harris.Quote:
Originally Posted by DalyQuote:
Originally Posted by tgull
If trump truly has a lock on Arizona the election has a chance to be called at 9PM.
Ive seen some writings that are saying North Carolina is all but decided.
If one of the networks is ready to call PA early or a shocking Virginia we may all be in bed early.
Assuming all that is true, and assuming no other surprises, Trump would only need ONE of MI, PA, or WI.
Current Pinny odds in those states:
MI: Harris EVEN
PA: Harris +122
WI: Harris +102
Essentially Harris would need to hit the 3-team parlay of those, which pays 7.97 to 1. The no-vig payout would be more like 8.92 to 1
If NC flips then Trump would need either PA OR Michigan AND Wisconsin.
The best odds are Trump winning the entire rust belt. Or lose it. At this point he either wins all three or lose all three. I agree with James Carville, the swing states are 7-0 or 0-7. 4-3 is the most unlikely scenario. It's not like Trump would win MI and lose Georgia. Put some reason in the equation.Quote:
Originally Posted by go_buccosI think AZ, GA, NC, and NV are just about in the bag for Trump at this point, while Virginia, New Hampshire, and Nebraska 2 are in the bag for Harris.Quote:
Originally Posted by Daly
If trump truly has a lock on Arizona the election has a chance to be called at 9PM.
Ive seen some writings that are saying North Carolina is all but decided.
If one of the networks is ready to call PA early or a shocking Virginia we may all be in bed early.
Assuming all that is true, and assuming no other surprises, Trump would only need ONE of MI, PA, or WI.
Current Pinny odds in those states:
MI: Harris EVEN
PA: Harris +122
WI: Harris +102
Essentially Harris would need to hit the 3-team parlay of those, which pays 7.97 to 1. The no-vig payout would be more like 8.92 to 1
If NC flips then Trump would need either PA OR Michigan AND Wisconsin.
Quote:
Originally Posted by go_buccosI think AZ, GA, NC, and NV are just about in the bag for Trump at this point, while Virginia, New Hampshire, and Nebraska 2 are in the bag for Harris.Quote:
Originally Posted by Daly
If trump truly has a lock on Arizona the election has a chance to be called at 9PM.
Ive seen some writings that are saying North Carolina is all but decided.
If one of the networks is ready to call PA early or a shocking Virginia we may all be in bed early.
Assuming all that is true, and assuming no other surprises, Trump would only need ONE of MI, PA, or WI.
Current Pinny odds in those states:
MI: Harris EVEN
PA: Harris +122
WI: Harris +102
Essentially Harris would need to hit the 3-team parlay of those, which pays 7.97 to 1. The no-vig payout would be more like 8.92 to 1
If NC flips then Trump would need either PA OR Michigan AND Wisconsin.
This is exactly where Im at. Of course you could say all three are correlated in that if Harris can win one she probably has a good shot to win the other two.
Either way if it comes down to her needing to go 3-0 plus fade any other quirky way she can lose like if she blows virginia then you can easily see why trump is -170…… think you can argue it should be higher.
for anyone having involvement in any of the 3 hurricanes this year, or related to others who have, and are in dismay at the federal government's response - or lack thereof --all while funding illegals and Ukrainian pensions, it was the final nail in hte proverbial coffin.
the election is done. Trump wins. they can't even cheat enough to save her.
I know her dad and he is fucked up over her being a Hollywood whore.Quote:
Originally Posted by sonatine