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You are in some ways like me in that no matter who is President, we are going to earn and get ours. Most people do not have that mentality and look to elected officials for career guidance, and Facebook for their news. They blame everyone else for their plight, always has been always will be.Quote:
Originally Posted by OSA
I wonder if people will be taking off work like they did in in 2016. That has to be the biggest embarrassment in our Nation's politics that happened as a result from the election. People couldn't mentally cope with their candidate not winning so they had to take a day or 2 off to mentally readjust. I remember it happening and like 2 or 3 people in my office of like 25 people or so and looking so bewildered. That had to be the start of TDS. Strange times.Quote:
Originally Posted by splitthis
decent betting opportunity here if you like trump to win
predictit has democrats 58 republican 43 in wisconsin
if you like trump to win, this is a good spot to go hard on republican. go to 270towin and try to come up with a trump win without wiconsin. it's pretty tough.
you'd have to give him PA and michigan, but if he is winning those, he'll definitely win wisconsin too
i might jump on this just to hedge in my bet with tellafriend
i'm trying to give real value unlike bottomset who fucked me over with that awful roy moore pick.
Everyone touts MI as a state the Dems will flip back in November. I don't see it. Detroit has less than 700,000 people now, and declining in population every week. IN and OH are border states and are either deep red or becoming deep red. Everyone obsesses about Texas becoming blue, and that may happen in 40 years, but MI is changing now as Detroit loses its populous. If the virus wanes come election time, and Trump pops a trillion dollar tariff on China say in October, I don't see how he does not rout the Midwest.Quote:
Originally Posted by blake
“‘Maricopa County is the key for Republicans winning .... It's the key to Trump’s re-election but it’s also key for the Senate seat.’”
McSally is down in that traditionally Republican county, the most populous in AZ and the fourth-most populous in the US, by ...
54% to 38%.
I want John brennan's head. U cant actually get Obama w/o a civil war I dont thinkQuote:
Originally Posted by Walter SobchakSpeaking of, Barr just said Obama wasn't responsible for the Russia inquiry and he's not a target of the investigation. Looks like the end of Obamagate. This must be very disappointing for Trump. What's Trump going to do, will he fire Barr? He can't let himself be cucked like that.Quote:
Originally Posted by dwai
I think you will agree polling is traditionally over-sampled to the side that is conducting it, and it rarely ever nails who will take the time to wait in line for two hours, especially if the virus is around in November. McSally is not a good candidate and barely lost her Senate race without Trump on the ticket, huge difference btw. People forget this choice will be binary and while the left winger will never vote for Trump, they sure as shit are not going to waste time voting for Biden, especially when they see him up close in October. There are very few 25 year old libs that are going to take any time away from their Facebook account to vote for a 78 year old man who routinely uses language such as 'malarkey', 'dog faced pony solider' or call Trump 'President Tweety'. Especially when they are out partying and Joe is giving Zoom meetings to 40 people from his basement.Quote:
Originally Posted by sonatine
Until these betting markets change, which really are the people that analyze these markets to the nth degree, polls are really chatter at this point. Bettors are wrong all the time, but we can usually agree they are more accurate than self serving polls.
RCP Average
5/19
50.8
42.0
Trump +8.8
Yep, this is a common theme on PI. Either Trump is undervalued in the states, or he's overvalued in the general. Or both. Either way, there's a mismatch of pricing that you can take advantage of.Quote:
Originally Posted by blake
If you like Trump, buy Trump in the states (riskier). OR Buy Trump in the states and sell Trump in the GE (risk adverse). But don't buy Trump in the GE and ignore the states (overpaying).
If you like Biden, buy Biden in the general (riskier). OR Buy Biden in the general and sell Biden in the states (risk adverse). But don't buy Biden in the states and ignore the GE (overpaying).
Do you actually think that people will vote for a President who ruined the economy and is responsible for more American deaths than in Vietnam?
https://bloximages.chicago2.vip.town...5c9d.image.jpg
gretchen wilson finna be biden's vp.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=82dDnv9zeLsQuote:
Originally Posted by sonatine
Interesting choice. Must be going for the redneck vote.
Get Obama? For what?Quote:
Originally Posted by thesidedishI want John brennan's head. U cant actually get Obama w/o a civil war I dont thinkQuote:
Originally Posted by Walter Sobchak
Obamagate. I think we all know what we're talking about hereQuote:
Originally Posted by big dickGet Obama? For what?Quote:
Originally Posted by thesidedish
yeah?Quote:
Originally Posted by sonatine
Of course, it's been clearly defined in all the newspapers except that one guy's newspaper who asked what crime was committed. Gonna be uuugggeee.Quote:
Originally Posted by SPIT thisObamagate. I think we all know what we're talking about hereQuote:
Originally Posted by big dick
poor dish prob thinks Obamagate is real
yeah the whole site is completely inconsistentQuote:
Originally Posted by SPIT thisYep, this is a common theme on PI. Either Trump is undervalued in the states, or he's overvalued in the general. Or both. Either way, there's a mismatch of pricing that you can take advantage of.Quote:
Originally Posted by blake
If you like Trump, buy Trump in the states (riskier). OR Buy Trump in the states and sell Trump in the GE (risk adverse). But don't buy Trump in the GE and ignore the states (overpaying).
If you like Biden, buy Biden in the general (riskier). OR Buy Biden in the general and sell Biden in the states (risk adverse). But don't buy Biden in the states and ignore the GE (overpaying).
it has trump 50 to biden 43, but has the popular vote winner becoming president at 65-35
so trump must be favored to win the popular vote, right?
um no, predictit has biden destroying trump here 70-30
:facepalm
literally dozens of college kids are responsible for the money moving the lines on predictit.
:watQuote:
Originally Posted by splitthis
That market is neither large enough nor liquid enough to be predictive.Quote:
Originally Posted by blakeyeah the whole site is completely inconsistentQuote:
Originally Posted by SPIT this
it has trump 50 to biden 43, but has the popular vote winner becoming president at 65-35
so trump must be favored to win the popular vote, right?
um no, predictit has biden destroying trump here 70-30
:facepalm
That's why it's still possible to make money on it.
Shhhh, don't tell anyone.
Every betting market at the moment is in line with predictit. That's a lot of college kids betting on Presidential markets sitting at home now with no money. But I get your point it could happen. Most college kids bet on events 5 months in advance and wait. It's in their nature.Quote:
Originally Posted by sonatine
Could even be hundreds.Quote:
Originally Posted by sonatine
Blacks aren't going to vote because Democrats nominated the guy they overwhelmingly and enthusiastically supported. Never mind that Harris is also the favorite to be VP.Quote:
Originally Posted by Walter Sobchak:watQuote:
Originally Posted by splitthis
You mean they're all in line with PredictIt having Democrats as the favorite?Quote:
Originally Posted by tgullEvery betting market at the moment is in line with predictit. That's a lot of college kids betting on Presidential markets sitting at home now with no money. But I get your point it could happen. Most college kids bet on events 5 months in advance and wait. It's in their nature.Quote:
Originally Posted by sonatine
https://www.predictit.org/markets/de...ntial-election
You should check out the UK site betfair for political betting odds even if you can't use it. They have already matched £30 million in bets on the Presidential election! https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plu...etting-2378961 The site is extremely transparent and you can back or lay.
Right now there are some striking anomalies in the market. Trump is slightly odds against @ 2.08 (this means if you staked £1 and won you'd get £2.08 back, so 2.0 would be Evens) but Biden is available @ 2.4. That means the market is factoring in a HUGE 10% chance of at least one of them not making it to the starting line.
i had like $500 in play during the dem primaries and i moved the line 3 cents when i sold my position.
i mean..
I have said it's a binary choice all along. Trump against Biden, Trump wins. Trump against a generic Democrat he will probably lose. I think everyone agrees there is a really good chance Biden is not around come November. Whether it's by discretion, a hospital bed or a coffin, it really is unlikely he is the candidate. But he is a stubborn old man, so he might just ride it out in his basement. That is why there is such a discrepancy in the odds right now.Quote:
Originally Posted by SPIT thisYou mean they're all in line with PredictIt having Democrats as the favorite?Quote:
Originally Posted by tgull
https://www.predictit.org/markets/de...ntial-election
I think any right minded Democrat knows Joe can't hang out in his basement forever. With that said, he is a walking ghost if he leaves and mingles with like 10 voters. But here again he is stubborn so he will either stay in his basement or just get wheeled out in a glass dome at the convention and look ridiculous.
At least Trump is saying Fuck it, and that plays in politics. Joe in the Bubble no, it does not.
Every book has Trump up by 7-10. Yes it will narrow, etc.. But this is not a few college kids staying home and bumming money from their parents. Many people hate Trump, but they see Biden as literally as a walking ghost. The guy is terrified to leave his house and that just is a losing strategy.Quote:
Originally Posted by sonatine
bottomset predicting trump loses in 2020, after insisting trump won't lose for monthsQuote:
Originally Posted by tgullI have said it's a binary choice all along. Trump against Biden, Trump wins. Trump against a generic Democrat he will probably lose. I think everyone agrees there is a really good chance Biden is not around come November. Whether it's by discretion, a hospital bed or a coffin, it really is unlikely he is the candidate. But he is a stubborn old man, so he might just ride it out in his basement. That is why there is such a discrepancy in the odds right now.Quote:
Originally Posted by SPIT this
I think any right minded Democrat knows Joe can't hang out in his basement forever. With that said, he is a walking ghost if he leaves and mingles with like 10 voters. But here again he is stubborn so he will either stay in his basement or just get wheeled out in a glass dome at the convention and look ridiculous.
At least Trump is saying Fuck it, and that plays in politics. Joe in the Bubble no, it does not.
Hard to get more generic than Biden.Quote:
Originally Posted by tgullI have said it's a binary choice all along. Trump against Biden, Trump wins. Trump against a generic Democrat he will probably lose.Quote:
Originally Posted by SPIT this
Biden is trading at a 44% chance to be president, and an 80% chance to be the nominee. This implies a 55% chance of winning the presidential election if he becomes the Democratic nominee.
You are totally retardedQuote:
Originally Posted by SPIT thisHard to get more generic than Biden.Quote:
Originally Posted by tgull
Biden is trading at a 44% chance to be president, and an 80% chance to be the nominee. This implies a 55% chance of winning the presidential election if he becomes the Democratic nominee.
Because I understand math and you don't? YikesQuote:
Originally Posted by splitthisYou are totally retardedQuote:
Originally Posted by SPIT this
split is fat now, right
I have been on record saying it depends on where the economy is in October, and that really goes for any President with the exception of FDR since he got a pass his first term. Outside of that it's what people are feeling about their future finances.Quote:
Originally Posted by blakebottomset predicting trump loses in 2020, after insisting trump won't lose for monthsQuote:
Originally Posted by tgull
You are not talking to some Associates degreed loser like Muck Ficon collecting stimulus checks and fist pumping. You are talking to the Juice.
You mean like this juice?Quote:
Originally Posted by tgullI have been on record saying it depends on where the economy is in October, and that really goes for any President with the exception of FDR since he got a pass his first term. Outside of that it's what people are feeling about their future finances.Quote:
Originally Posted by blake
You are not talking to some Associates degreed loser like Muck Ficon collecting stimulus checks and fist pumping. You are talking to the Juice.
LOL, George Conway's group trying to reignite a fire.
Trump doesn't like people getting rich off of him, w/out getting a piece.
Parscale had to fly to the WH to cool Trump down a few weeks ago.
PSA if you have any extra green rep points, consider giving them to tgull, he could use a boost.
Don't worry Tgull I have 8 more, and even though he doesn't care about his score, lets get him back under 200.
Quote:
Originally Posted by JimmyG_415
these ppl are completely irrelevant. like ya we get it, u really want a career in politics but have 0 chance of making more than 100k with Trumpism around
Who is George Conway again, and why should anyone care what he's doing?