im officially up in every market. i f'd up early maxxing out on WI, always been a pain in the ass
Which party will win Wisconsin in the 2020 presidential election?
Market Investment $1,699.64
Gain/Loss +$5.30
Wisconsion is Republican generally, now this election could it go Democratic it could I guess lol.
Probably wont but it is possible maybe. Wisconsin is wealthy to rich, white American place in a pretty good State actually, a Red State, so this Wisconsin could go 'Blue' is actually funny lol... Wisconsin is a 'well-to-do', wealthy white group there in Wisconsin lol.... Wisconsin is not a City State either perse-, like a New Jersey, small but lotta big cities, that's not true of Wisky at all actually. Its much more down home America in ways I guess. The real fabric that is that of The U.S.A I guess maybe lol...
I'm sure this is known already by the people who need to know it here.
Biden dropped paid advertising in Texas today
Druff knew a few chicks from True Poker that were from San Antonio Texas.
All Fat Bitches live in San Antonio and Druff switched them to Republicans.
That was are only shot San Antonio..
Fucking 900 #s and Chat Rooms from the late 80's Early 90's killed the dream.
At least we still have Greenfield in Iowa
Last edited by badguy23; 10-25-2020 at 03:34 PM.
@PLOL - I have an interesting data point I found.
https://sos.iowa.gov/youth/poll/results.aspx
30,000+ Iowa High School and Middle School students
First, LOL Kanye
Second, we know kids tend to have their parents political beliefs or are a bit more Liberal.
Third, not sure it means a ton but I think it's a larger sample than any of the polls and runs counter to most of the other Iowa polling.
Curious your thoughts?
It's a very silly poll. Higher sample size does not equal greater accuracy in polling. That's not what makes a poll scientific. If I recall correctly Clinton won the Nickelodeon "Kids Pick The President" Election, which they used to tout as being super predictive lol. Having said that, I am not surprised that a bunch of children voted for the candidate who acts like a child.
Edit: I just looked it up and there were 90,000 "votes" in the Nickelodeon kids poll. Biden won by 6 points. Do I think that's relevant? No, I do not.
Btw, I like the "YES" side here on "Will either candidate concede the election by November 17th". Trading near 50/50. I would dump it when the returns come in if it goes to like 85.
https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6906
Here's the key phrasing in the rules:
PredictIt’s determination shall be based on either of the following: a) a public, unconditional and unambiguous concession by Trump himself or Biden himself or b) media reports, that PredictIt in its sole discretion deems reliable, of an unconditional and unambiguous concession by either candidate personally.
I think Trump will try to put a giant asterisk on his loss but will still concede, and then a bunch of people will argue over the wording of "unconditional and unambiguous". This is why I would dump it before expiration. But I don't think there will be a drawn out court battle, which seems to be the intent of the market.
Placed some pinata (randomly assigned) bets for giggles on Trump EVs. Basically bet $5 each time and I win 500 if it comes true.
Here are the values I have, is there any chance I win $500 or did I lose $90?
Less than 80
140-142
224-226
260-262
296-298
302-304
305-307
311-313
329-331
335-337
344-346
368-370
374-376
392-394
425-427
428-430
I guess this could happen. Though 259 is way more likely as Nebraska's 2nd district is very likely to go to Biden. Fun sweat tho. There's always surprises on election day that could make the map go wonky and randomly hit one of your brackets.
Entertaining podcast. Funny and likable hosts. Thx again, PLOL
Do you have any other podcast you’d recommend? I am being very careful about getting turned around by the CNN’s and Fox.
You hear Bezos is a possible CNN buyer? My my
Glad you enjoyed, I agree the MAGA episode was a good one. Always good to hear the logic of the people on the other side of a lot of my trades to validate or cast doubt on my own theories. I also stay away from CNN and network news usually. Every other person they have on is a surrogate trying to spin for their side. Most of it is just noise. I didn't know Bezos was looking to buy CNN. That's probably not great
I know Luckbox Magazine also has a political trading podcast. I haven't listened to it, but somebody in my InTrade refugees group (@ssupak) talked about being on it. Can't recommend it because I haven't listened yet, but I would imagine it's good if you're itching to listen to something similar:
https://luckboxmagazine.com/tpt/epis...-and-subscribe
3 more days. Working hard! Thank you!
https://twitter.com/twt/status/1322604634033295360
This is a /very/ bad Iowa poll for Biden. Selzer/DMR is the gold standard for Iowa polling.
https://twitter.com/twt/status/1322683707023593474
I don't think that's what will happen, bro. I'm saying it's the most realistic scenario for Simp to his his 3 point EV margin bet. I think FL, NC, AZ, and NE-02 will go blue.
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