Thread: *** Official Flying Stupidity Wagering thread ***

  1. #31021
    Hurricane Expert tgull's Avatar
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    Anyone feeling LSU -3 at home against Auburn? I mean, Auburn needed a lot of luck to bet Georgia State at home a couple weeks ago.

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    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post
    Suarez goes deep. 4-0 Reds.

    Sorry guys, we're not likely to win this one. I think I got sharped into this pick.
    Reds went up 5-0, and I stopped watching.


    Now somehow it's 6-5 Pirates.


  3. #31023
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    U.C.L.A. is a Lock -2.5 , -3, -148..


    Univ. Corner Lex. Ave.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Sanlmar View Post
    Have you looked at Sunday?

    Saints
    Bucs
    Titans

    Awful, right?
    I did 10 NFL teasers this week. Unfortunately I wasnÂ’t paying close enough attention and put New Orleans in 5 of them. I donÂ’t hate NO spot, but that is a little more saints exposure than ideal.

  5. #31025
    Plutonium Sanlmar's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kalam View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Sanlmar View Post
    Have you looked at Sunday?

    Saints
    Bucs
    Titans

    Awful, right?
    I did 10 NFL teasers this week. Unfortunately I wasnÂ’t paying close enough attention and put New Orleans in 5 of them. I donÂ’t hate NO spot, but that is a little more saints exposure than ideal.
    I have 6. They are all permutations of Cinci, Saints, Bucs, Titans. I don’t think this is out of the norm. Everyone did Cinci.

    Not enthusiastic about Titans and Saints like I was at the beginning of the week.

    I haven’t made a single game spread bet this year.

    I have Dodgers over 7 and the way my luck is running I might need someone to handicap the Hawaii game for me. Mitchell-gale.
    Last edited by Sanlmar; 10-02-2021 at 06:18 PM.

  6. #31026
    Plutonium Sanlmar's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post

    Reds went up 5-0, and I stopped watching.
    Wait a minute. You were watching that game?

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    Druff money

    Can we get Urias pulled at 75 pitches? Tomorrow should be great. You and I will be the only Americans not watching afternoon football.

  7. #31027
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    Kinda felt like that Pirates win was more of a "win because things are falling your way right now" than any real skill. But I'll take it.

    Every MLB game starts within 15 minutes of one another tomorrow. All between 12:05pm and 12:20pm PDT.

    7-1 Dodgers now, so it really will come down to the final game of the season, barring an epic collapse tonight.

    I hate having to rest the Dodgers' divisional fortunes on the San Diego Padres again, but here we are.

     
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      Sanlmar: You’ve been hot

  8. #31028
    Plutonium Sanlmar's Avatar
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    Padres appear to be trotting out a gimp who rides the bus back and forth to the minors. Pitching mismatch unfortunately.

    We will see. Gonna be a spite filled winter in the San Diego press. A Padres win would be some kind of salve on that open wound down there.

  9. #31029
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kalam View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Sanlmar View Post
    Have you looked at Sunday?

    Saints
    Bucs
    Titans

    Awful, right?
    I did 10 NFL teasers this week. Unfortunately I wasnÂ’t paying close enough attention and put New Orleans in 5 of them. I donÂ’t hate NO spot, but that is a little more saints exposure than ideal.
    I think you'll be happy with your choice to do that

  10. #31030
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sandwich View Post
    Value UFC picks, Saturday 10/2, starting at 4pm ET:

    Shanna Young +110, .75u
    Gaetano Pirrello +215, .75u
    Devonte Smith -150, 1u
    Joe Solecki -135, 1u
    Mike Breeden +400, .5u
    Misha Cirkunov +125, 1u
    Kevin Holland -165, 1u
    Johnny Walker +135, 1u

    Rough night of fights. All lost, except Holland fight was a Draw. -6u
    Ouch. Better luck next week.

     
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      JeffDime: It happens. You been solid AF.

  11. #31031
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    Quote Originally Posted by tgull View Post
    Anyone feeling LSU -3 at home against Auburn? I mean, Auburn needed a lot of luck to bet Georgia State at home a couple weeks ago.
    did you bet this game tgull? its very close rn

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    Quote Originally Posted by shoeshine box View Post
    U.C.L.A. is a Lock -2.5 , -3, -148..


    Univ. Corner Lex. Ave.
    I took UCLA too. Unfortunately the refs appear to have taken Arizona state. UCLA had had a lot of big plays called back by phantom penalties. The announcers can’t even figure out what the refs are seeing. Az st is playing good and might win anyways, but refs not taking any chances.

     
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      shoeshine box: excuse media really overdid ucla...ughhhhh

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    Quote Originally Posted by Kalam View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by shoeshine box View Post
    U.C.L.A. is a Lock -2.5 , -3, -148..


    Univ. Corner Lex. Ave.
    I took UCLA too. Unfortunately the refs appear to have taken Arizona state. UCLA had had a lot of big plays called back by phantom penalties. The announcers can’t even figure out what the refs are seeing. Az st is playing good and might win anyways, but refs not taking any chances.
    UCLA blocked a punt, and somehow despite being blocked the ball still rolled 30 yards downfield. And then on top of this the refs called a phantom 10 yard penalty on UCLA the announcers didn't even bother trying to figure out what the penalty was. So with a little luck and help from he refs a blocked punt turned into a 40 yard net punt. That pretty much sums up how this game is going.

  14. #31034
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    UCLA has 3rd and goal from the 2 yard line and they try 2 slow developing weird triple draw plays (where both times the QB kept it and got immediately tackled) that looked like something Army would do. And neither play had the slightest chance of working. This is a joke.

     
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      shoeshine box: so obvious they threw this game to ol Herm Edwards, back to pros I bet

  15. #31035
    Plutonium Sanlmar's Avatar
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    No Gronk and a dreadful dreadful secondary. Even Pats Mac Jones can look good. Bill Belichick is preventing me from sleeping. I’m supposed to bet the Pats money line. That’s the only thing that will give me peace. It’ll cross up my teasers. I need to fold the Bucs. Bucs are a bad hand. Maybe I hedge out after dinner.

    Ole Miss & Arkansas. Every sharp was on those two and they were epically wrong. I’m still not over it. I dug out by the end of the day but only because of baseball.

    Let’s get em tomorrow

  16. #31036
    Platinum JeffDime's Avatar
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    Bets for Sep 27-Oct 3(Week 10)

    Current

    PGA Sanderson (After R1) Sam Burns $1000 at +1400

    LPGA Shorpite - SY Kim - $1,000 at +2800

    Start $50,000 Remaining $43,350 Current Week $-150 Last Week -$1,620

    Total Win/Loss -$4,650

    ————

    At the end of the day Burns could hurt for sure but these are the chances we want with the equity favorite going into the last round. The SY Kim bet is annoying because she did start off yesterday -7 and has shown signs of form, but it will be a little too late. I have def been close to breaking through and I’m hoping those who have stuck through this grind with me will get rewarded.

    The Burns bet I was able to post with a days notice. I realize that some people tailing could miss that and that is frustrating for sure. All the ones that were posted with short notice have been losers. I do count them to the tally like the Kyle Busch play last week. So the -$500 was added to the ledger. (Or rather deducted). I think if I had won that bet, I would have considered it to be misleading to add those profits to this tally. Even so, because it lost and the whole point of this is to be accountable, I just deducted the loss for last week.

    I think going forward I will carve out an additional bankroll for bets that are posted within 2 hours of starting. Any live golf bets will be included in this tally. This isn’t to play with numbers and make them look any different, in fact it’s just the opposite. My golf bets are usually posted with plenty of time to spare and it’s unrealistic that those tailing or even fading would also tail/fade spur of the moment bets. In this case last week’s bet was a loser so I think just adding it to this ledger is fine. But it would of been wrong to add it if it was a winner because the unlikelihood that others were able to get the play in.

    The main thing here is I want things to be transparent as possible. When San suggested that, it was the main goal. I want to stick with this and hopefully get through this grind and start to show some real profit. It also shows as realistically as possible my true exposure on most bets. Although, honestly I typically have a little bit more than I post here. Never do I bet Less (And I have the receipts and the high blood pressure pills to prove it), which is the most important thing imho.

    Lastly, I don’t do units because they don’t really tell the story with golf outrights. I think looking at a bankroll and seeing how much of that I am wagering, is easier to then decipher the correct amount for whoever wants to tail the action, based on their comfort level. I think the main guys on this thread who use units do it correctly and it gives a proper representation.

    In general, units works much better for normal straight wagers than +800 or more betting propositions. Using actual amounts in my case makes for a better follow imho. If I typically had “one unit” on these outrights it just wouldn’t tell the story. Real dollar figures is a much better representation of how it works with outrights.
    Last edited by JeffDime; 10-03-2021 at 06:10 AM.

  17. #31037
    Platinum JeffDime's Avatar
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    It s just a fucking shame. The 5 drop shots and the lack of enough race track ahead no buneo. Just really frustrating when I get such a good price and she obviously is finding her form. Not going to get anywhere near 28-1 next time, that’s for fucking sure. Super frustrating to see her make a charge a little too late.

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      YUUP: Thanks for posting Jeff. I tail your selections. I used to bet a lot on golf , but 4 days to blow up on the 17th on Sunday killed me.

  18. #31038
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    Giants +7
    Giants ML @285

    Seattle ML @ +120

    Vikings ML and game total over 51.5

  19. #31039
    Plutonium Sanlmar's Avatar
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    Dogs are 31-18 ATS (63 percent)

    Short road dogs 6 or less are 14-3 ATS (82 percent)

    Unders are 29-20 (59 percent). If the total is 45 or less, the under is 12-2 (86 percent)

    Discuss

  20. #31040
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    Here's some totals for the final MLB game.

    Every single baseball game starts between 12:05pm and 12:20pm PDT.

    Angels (Detmers) at Seattle (Ty Andreson) - OVER 7.5 -110
    Miami (P. Lopez) vs. Philadelpha (Falter) - UNDER 7.5 -120
    White Sox (Cease) vs. Destroit (T. Alexander) - UNDER 8 -110

    These should, for the most part, be my last picks, though I may through an occasional pick out during the postseason.

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