Anyone want to bet me regarding Gavin Newsom being recalled?

[OSA]

Can either party commit to donating 10% of your profits to the OSA Vaca Fund? Flights to Vegas in Oct are stupid expensive.

Thanks in Advance

I thought you were selling fake vaccination records? That should be lucrative.

Yea, cant really advertise that though. Ironically, Dark Web sites allow Heroin and Meth listings but forbid Covid vaccine card ads. Weird morals right?

[ftpjesus]

I thought you were selling fake vaccination records? That should be lucrative.

Yea, cant really advertise that though. Ironically, Dark Web sites allow Heroin and Meth listings but forbid Covid vaccine card ads. Weird morals right?

Not so much if ya think about it.. Drugs are drugs its a libertarian logic in a way that all drugs should be legal and its a free country if you chose be an addict.. The fake cards is seen as potentially probably a fraud being perpetrated ultimately.. Its funny theyve come down hard on some folks for doing that by the FBI yet they seem to care less about the dregs of NXVIUM and Epsteins friends still lurking about abusing children.. Local PD just finally arrrested some Covid Nazi Democrat (who was screaming for renewed mask mandates and had been diagnosed) for shit he did in 2019 being a child toucher..

[sonatine]

Yea, cant really advertise that though. Ironically, Dark Web sites allow Heroin and Meth listings but forbid Covid vaccine card ads. Weird morals right?

Not so much if ya think about it.. Drugs are drugs its a libertarian logic in a way that all drugs should be legal and its a free country if you chose be an addict.. The fake cards is seen as potentially probably a fraud being perpetrated ultimately.. Its funny theyve come down hard on some folks for doing that by the FBI yet they seem to care less about the dregs of NXVIUM and Epsteins friends still lurking about abusing children.. Local PD just finally arrrested some Covid Nazi Democrat (who was screaming for renewed mask mandates and had been diagnosed) for shit he did in 2019 being a child toucher..

the heat they would bring down on themselves by allowing them would be not entirely dissimilar to them allowing sales of chemical or biological weapons.

[ftpjesus]

Not so much if ya think about it.. Drugs are drugs its a libertarian logic in a way that all drugs should be legal and its a free country if you chose be an addict.. The fake cards is seen as potentially probably a fraud being perpetrated ultimately.. Its funny theyve come down hard on some folks for doing that by the FBI yet they seem to care less about the dregs of NXVIUM and Epsteins friends still lurking about abusing children.. Local PD just finally arrrested some Covid Nazi Democrat (who was screaming for renewed mask mandates and had been diagnosed) for shit he did in 2019 being a child toucher..

the heat they would bring down on themselves by allowing them would be not entirely dissimilar to them allowing sales of chemical or biological weapons.

But its hardly a secret anymore that the feds have infiltrated the dark web long ago.. Anybody big time learned their lesson after Silk Road went down.. The Feds dont waste millions pursuing small fish

[Cerveza Fria]

So, I saw this when I got back last night from Newport,RI. (trip report coming soon), but I kept quiet to avoid influencing the action. A month ago, I thought there was ZERO chance of Newsome getting recalled. Dems outnumber GOP voters by 2-1 in California. But, something weird is happening. Newsome never courted Hispanic voters. And a Majority of Hispanic voters are in favor of getting rid of Newsome. Also, since Trump isn't on the ballot, many Dems will NOT show up to the polls. A recent poll shows that 51% favor him being recalled. But, surveys are one thing and votes are something else. He's in real trouble here, and called in Elizabeth Warren and Pelosi to help. The are branding this a Republican recall effort, even though many Dems support giving him the boot. I would think the real odds are about -130 in favor of Newsome keeping his job AT THIS MOMENT. The odds are trading in favor of Recalling him though, and I think the final odds would be in the neighborhood of -110 of him keeping his job. In the end, I think it will be close, but Druff will be shipping Walter some cash.

[CryptoNinja]

I think people in California mostly understand that the recall isn’t just step 1 where Newsom is removed and then they decide who his replacement is, it recalls AND replaces him and Dems in CA understand how much damage a MAGA Governor could do in a short period of time.

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[Dan Druff]

I think people in California mostly understand that the recall isn’t just step 1 where Newsom is removed and then they decide who his replacement is, it recalls AND replaces him and Dems in CA understand how much damage a MAGA Governor could do in a short period of time.

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I'm actually not a big Larry Elder fan. I actually tried listening to him in the 1990s, and he acted like he had a stick up his ass, so I turned it off pretty quickly. He was no Rush Limbaugh, that's for sure.

Kinda surprising to see him as the GOP frontrunner, but then again it was also surprising to see Ahnold as the frontrunner in 2003.

Still, if you think the average California voter is going to base their vote upon Elder rather than Newsom, you're kidding yourself. The recall is basically asking, "Does Newsom suck too much to continue being governor", and if the answer is yes, most people are voting yes. That's the reality.

[Jayjami]

I think people in California mostly understand that the recall isn’t just step 1 where Newsom is removed and then they decide who his replacement is, it recalls AND replaces him and Dems in CA understand how much damage a MAGA Governor could do in a short period of time.

The Dems have a supermajority in both houses. There ain’t much “damage” the governor can do these days. Californians are looking for someone with leadership skills, something Newsom sorely lacks. If the winner of the recall wants to get re-elected, he or she will have to show they can get things done. That means, unfortunately, working with the uber liberal legislative branch. Obstructionism will not be well received.

[Walter Sobchak]

A lawsuit has been filed challenging the constitutionality of the recall.

Druff I am fine for the bet to stand regardless of the ruling, but consider what you’d want to do if:
—Newsom is allowed to be listed as a candidate to replace himself, and wins despite being recalled
—Newsom can only be recalled if another candidate gets more votes than “NO”
—The state is forced to hold a “regular” election instead
—The date is pushed back while the case is pending

Again I’m fine letting it stand.

[Jayjami]

A lawyer has been filed challenging the constitutionality of the recall.

Druff I am fine for the bet to stand regardless of the ruling, but consider what you’d want to do if:
—Newsom is allowed to be listed as a candidate to replace himself, and wins despite being recalled
—Newsom can only be recalled if another candidate gets more votes than “NO”
—The state is forced to hold a “regular” election instead
—The date is pushed back while the case is pending

Again I’m fine letting it stand.

That “lawyer” is Erwin Chemerinsky, one of the best, but its chances of success are slim, and it has zero point zero chance of being resolved before next year’s 2022 governor’s election

[Dan Druff]

A lawsuit has been filed challenging the constitutionality of the recall.

Druff I am fine for the bet to stand regardless of the ruling, but consider what you’d want to do if:
..

Again I’m fine letting it stand.

—Newsom is allowed to be listed as a candidate to replace himself, and wins despite being recalled -- YOU WIN

—Newsom can only be recalled if another candidate gets more votes than “NO” -- CANCEL BET

—The state is forced to hold a “regular” election instead -- CANCEL BET

—The date is pushed back while the case is pending -- CANCEL BET IF MORE THAN 30 DAY DELAY


Agree to the above?

[Walter Sobchak]

A lawsuit has been filed challenging the constitutionality of the recall.

Druff I am fine for the bet to stand regardless of the ruling, but consider what you’d want to do if:
..

Again I’m fine letting it stand.

—Newsom is allowed to be listed as a candidate to replace himself, and wins despite being recalled -- YOU WIN

—Newsom can only be recalled if another candidate gets more votes than “NO” -- CANCEL BET

—The state is forced to hold a “regular” election instead -- CANCEL BET

—The date is pushed back while the case is pending -- CANCEL BET IF MORE THAN 30 DAY DELAY


Agree to the above?

Agreed. Want to make sure you are comfy with all terms.

[country978]

Did President Biden actually go to California to support its elitist, hypocrite governor? I assume this should rally the followers plenty to make the recall fail. Are you still offering odds on this, Druff? I'll take Newsome. California, from my view here in Massachusetts, is ruled by the wealthy and powerful and towards their own agenda before they do anything for the good of the people. I cannot stand the sight of Newsome, Pelosi, Feinstein, Harris, half the Lakers, most of Hollywood and any other West Coast hypocrite too sheepish to make a politician pay a price for not doing the people's work. Is Newsome as big a scumbag as he appears 3,000 miles away?

[JoeD]

Did President Biden actually go to California to support its elitist, hypocrite governor? I assume this should rally the followers plenty to make the recall fail. Are you still offering odds on this, Druff? I'll take Newsome. California, from my view here in Massachusetts, is ruled by the wealthy and powerful and towards their own agenda before they do anything for the good of the people. I cannot stand the sight of Newsome, Pelosi, Feinstein, Harris, half the Lakers, most of Hollywood and any other West Coast hypocrite too sheepish to make a politician pay a price for not doing the people's work. Is Newsome as big a scumbag as he appears 3,000 miles away?

Biden and Harris came out here in person. Obama, Bernie and Elizabeth Warren made commercials which run non-stop. Not sure what was said at the live events but the commercials pretty much just say "don't let the Republicans" win because they will give all of your kids Covid 19 and businesses will be ruined, etc. They don't really mention Elder or anyone else by name except Trump, just that Republicans are bad.

[Cerveza Fria]

Druff, are you still taking bets?

[GrenadaRoger]

So Druff you didn't win...does this mean your charity gift is out?

[JimmyG_415]

This thread says it all.
After months of CA Recall hype, OAN won't announce the results.
LOSERS.

You snowflakes can call the real news 'fake news' all you want, they would never pull this

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[Sloppy Joe]

Thanks to Dan Druff for helping foot the tax bill for a massive GOP cucking.

Fiscal conservatism at its finest.