Thread: *** Official Flying Stupidity Wagering thread ***

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  2. #29942
    Platinum JeffDime's Avatar
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    Henley was putting together a beautiful round. Birdie putt from 3 and a half feet. 3 putted for bogey. Was looking like -5 now to -3. Butchered hole of the week.


    Quick addl note- It’s early, but what makes this annoying is with the holes ahead of him at the time and a short birdie putt on 13, he was looking at either being tied or overtaking the leaders at the end of the day. Which would of been a nice stress free round 1, which doesn’t come often. Would of been nice to get that extra REM sleep that only comes from backing a 20-1 first round leader.

    He’s still very very live, but this was just a real shitty way to toss away 2 strokes. Much rather he lost a ball or hit into a hazard.
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    Last edited by JeffDime; 07-08-2021 at 03:43 PM.

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    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    Makeup pick.

    Philadelphia (Eflin) -102 at Cubs (Alzolay)

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    Master of Props Daly's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by JeffDime View Post
    Henley was putting together a beautiful round. Birdie putt from 3 and a half feet. 3 putted for bogey. Was looking like -5 now to -3. Butchered hole of the week.


    Quick addl note- It’s early, but what makes this annoying is with the holes ahead of him at the time and a short birdie putt on 13, he was looking at either being tied or overtaking the leaders at the end of the day. Which would of been a nice stress free round 1, which doesn’t come often. Would of been nice to get that extra REM sleep that only comes from backing a 20-1 first round leader.

    He’s still very very live, but this was just a real shitty way to toss away 2 strokes. Much rather he lost a ball or hit into a hazard.
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    We all had a collective stroke when Rham hit the flag and took a double. Winning a golf tournament isn’t about avoiding 1 disaster because it ALWAYS happens once. It’s about shooting well and only having one disaster.

    He checked that box. Now let’s hope it holds tomorrow.

     
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      JeffDime: Agree

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    Platinum JeffDime's Avatar
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    I agree Daly and I try to keep my whining to a minimum. He played fantastic. Shit happens. Just looked like it was going to be a real special round. But you’re 100% right. I was just being greedy and wanted to sleep on or near the lead for the soul.

     
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      Daly: Hard not to wear it on your sleeve when you got +2000 tickets - I get it

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    Master of Props Daly's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Daly View Post
    Golf docket

    LPGA: after what I saw this past weekend I’m fine with backing Castren +3500. She played as well as any of the other gals. Henselet +8500 is worth a small token.

    Euro: Hatton +2200, Grace +3500 & Ramsay +20000 (Hatton 1R +3300)

    PGA: Henley +1800

    Sr: Els +1400
    This Castren is a bad bitch. She may not win this week after this freak -10 round but I’ve seen enough to think she’s going to be a force here in the weeks to come. She won’t be getting 30/40 to one prices much longer.

     
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      JeffDime: Right call on her for sure man

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    Platinum JeffDime's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Daly View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Daly View Post
    Golf docket

    LPGA: after what I saw this past weekend I’m fine with backing Castren +3500. She played as well as any of the other gals. Henselet +8500 is worth a small token.

    Euro: Hatton +2200, Grace +3500 & Ramsay +20000 (Hatton 1R +3300)

    PGA: Henley +1800

    Sr: Els +1400
    This Castren is a bad bitch. She may not win this week after this freak -10 round but I’ve seen enough to think she’s going to be a force here in the weeks to come. She won’t be getting 30/40 to one prices much longer.

    For sure, she has been doing better on the Par 3s & 4s than the par 5s. Her iron/wedge game is on point. She needs a better caddie like you said, needs to carry 4 wedges rather than 3 and get a little more distance and she can be a real top golfer. The prices won’t last long for sure. Nasa has come back to the pack after going low before. We’ll see what happens tommorow.

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    Platinum JeffDime's Avatar
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    BTW Henley is +1800 live. So if someone missed the boat. They can still get the same price after his opening 67.

    I haven’t taken him but same for X on the Euro Tour. Was +1200 to start. Shot 4 under and is still +1200. Giving that some thought. Maybe the change of scenery does him well. Obviously JT and Rahm are the guys to beat.

    Note- I decided to not bet X at the +1200. Was a close call but decided against it.
    Last edited by JeffDime; 07-08-2021 at 05:59 PM.

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    I am no math genius so I might just not understand but for Euro Final

    To win in regulation:
    England +165
    Italy +200

    To lift trophy
    England -111
    Italy -101

    Why’s there such a big difference in regulation but including extra time and shootouts almost even? Idk just thought it was interest

    Want to bet on this game, not sure who will win. England -111 to win trophy is nice but Italy +200 regulation is also nice. Very close teams either can win, doubling up your money’s nice but sucks badly to lose a regulation bet then your team wins in extra time. Soccer complicated to bet on, low scoring but for some reason in high level games I still enjoy betting on it, it’s a nice sweat usually

     
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      JeffDime: Three way betting pipes. The tie in regulation makes that huge of a difference.

  10. #29950
    Platinum JeffDime's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by NickyPipes View Post
    I am no math genius so I might just not understand but for Euro Final

    To win in regulation:
    England +165
    Italy +200

    To lift trophy
    England -111
    Italy -101

    Why’s there such a big difference in regulation but including extra time and shootouts almost even? Idk just thought it was interest

    Want to bet on this game, not sure who will win. England -111 to win trophy is nice but Italy +200 regulation is also nice. Very close teams either can win, doubling up your money’s nice but sucks badly to lose a regulation bet then your team wins in extra time. Soccer complicated to bet on, low scoring but for some reason in high level games I still enjoy betting on it, it’s a nice sweat usually
    Not an expert at Soccer Pipes, but I know these games have a much larger tendency to draw in Regular/Stoppage time than your garden variety EPL match. If it’s tied late, teams will tend to be less aggressive knowing that there is 30 minutes of ET and than a possible shootout. No one wants to concede a goal when they are about to get a fresh 30 minutes. I haven’t been betting but I’ve noticed many draws in regular time down the stretch here.

    The trophy odds tightening is mainly because only 30 mins of ET and than a shootout (crapshoot) will occur. It still is hard to wrap my head around getting +200 if Italy wins in RT and basically even money if they win in ET or a shootout. It’s all a bit fucked up but the tendency to draw is the major factor.

  11. #29951
    Hurricane Expert tgull's Avatar
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    Delete
    Last edited by tgull; 07-08-2021 at 07:41 PM.

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    Plutonium Sanlmar's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by tgull View Post
    Delete
    I caught the hate tgull.

    Reds loaded the bases 3x during 1st 5 against Doogie Houser. Once with no outs. I was about to stroke out in frustration

    WON Baseball - 959 Cincinnati Reds Over +2 ½ 135 for 1st 5 Innings
    Game Results:
    points scored in 1st 5 Innings
    Cincinnati Reds - 3 / Milwaukee Brewers

    You gotta admit it was a sweet plus odds win

    If you follow my bullshit you know I have been candid about the fact that I am struggling this year with MLB.

    I AM glad you won though. We’re good.

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    Plutonium Sanlmar's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post
    Makeup pick.

    Philadelphia (Eflin) -102 at Cubs (Alzolay)
    Philly 8-0 top of 9th

    NICE



    I lost my Cubs fade yesterday. I couldn’t believe it. Cubs are so bad. I have no idea what the story is

    I got shook and didn’t tail. Scared money don’t make money.

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    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sanlmar View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post
    Makeup pick.

    Philadelphia (Eflin) -102 at Cubs (Alzolay)
    Philly 8-0 top of 9th

    NICE



    I lost my Cubs fade yesterday. I couldn’t believe it. Cubs are so bad. I have no idea what the story is

    I got shook and didn’t tail. Scared money don’t make money.
    How much do they miss Schwarber right now?

    After five playoff appearances in six years and a half-dozen seasons of playing important September games, the Chicago Cubs could be in for an overhaul, according to team president Jed Hoyer.

    "Eleven days ago, we were fully on the buy side of this transaction and everyone was calling about that," Hoyer told reporters at Wrigley Field on Thursday. "Obviously, people are now calling to see which players are available, so it's a very different scenario than we expected.
    .
    .
    At the top of other teams' wish lists could be Cubs All-Stars Craig Kimbrel and Kris Bryant, along with veterans Javy Baez and Anthony Rizzo. Lefty reliever Andrew Chafin is having a great year as well, and should be coveted. All of them will be free agents at the end of the season.
    https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/...jed-hoyer-says

    Can you say "rebuild"?


    I wish big dick were still here, so I could rub it in. He really thought he had a dynasty there.

  15. #29955
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    Hope none of you had the Nationals today.

    Like my Philly bet against the Cubs, the Nationals were up 8-0.

    Unllike my Philly bet, the Nationals lost. They chunked off the lead and succumbed 9-8 in a walkoff.

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    Master of Props Daly's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Daly View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by JeffDime View Post

    Back to business, I agree with Daly that Rahm is the guy to beat this week. DJ started to pull the ball again like he did back in the Genesis. The price sucks, but I understand why it’s there. May wait a day or two because I don’t see Rahm’s price going below 10-1 as the public will start looking for value elsewhere.
    The smart move after picking chalk is to keep my trap shut. He wins he is supposed to win. He plays like an asshole and misses the cut I look like a jerk.

    I don’t have to tell you about the ebb and flow of player form and how guys just naturally cycle up and down the player list. Remember last year when DJ decided he was back and went into GOD mode? Unless I miss my guess I think we going to see Rham do something similar over the summer. Feels like he has cleared any hurdles he had in his way and all his top level piers are having issues in some form or fashion.

    Maybe I’m wrong but I guess we shall see. I got this feeling if you bet him at 12/10 -1 for the next 15 weeks he’s going to bink 3-4 of them.
    If you are inclined to back Rham for the open I’d bet it now. He’s between 8-10 to one in most shops. Unless I miss my guess I could see him as low as +500 next week.
    Last edited by Daly; 07-09-2021 at 04:29 AM.

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    Hurricane Expert tgull's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sanlmar View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by tgull View Post
    Delete
    I caught the hate tgull.

    Reds loaded the bases 3x during 1st 5 against Doogie Houser. Once with no outs. I was about to stroke out in frustration

    WON Baseball - 959 Cincinnati Reds Over +2 ½ 135 for 1st 5 Innings
    Game Results:
    points scored in 1st 5 Innings
    Cincinnati Reds - 3 / Milwaukee Brewers

    You gotta admit it was a sweet plus odds win

    If you follow my bullshit you know I have been candid about the fact that I am struggling this year with MLB.

    I AM glad you won though. We’re good.
    Problem is I bet the OVER for the game, 8.5. Oh well, I did win on the Suns so I broke even for the night. Yes, when the Reds had bases loaded in the 1st no outs with Votto up and score ZERO runs I knew I was in trouble.

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    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    Got two overs for you today.

    Philadelphia (V. Velasquez) at Boston (G. Richards) - Over 11 -110
    Oakland (Irvin) at Texas (Lyles) - Over 9 -120

    I'm sure even the ploppies can get on board with these picks.

  19. #29959
    Plutonium Sanlmar's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post
    Got two overs for you today.

    Philadelphia (V. Velasquez) at Boston (G. Richards) - Over 11 -110
    Oakland (Irvin) at Texas (Lyles) - Over 9 -120

    I'm sure even the ploppies can get on board with these picks.
    The hurricane should have passed thru Beantown by then.

  20. #29960
    Plutonium simpdog's Avatar
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    I'll take the Blue Jays at + money against Tampa Alek

    Get that Manoah while you can today if you understand what I'm sayin'

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