Bitcoins are officially donkdown

[Daly]

My point is was and always has been this. If you have held BTC at any point of the last 10 years you had a huge capital appreciation unless you bought yesterday for the first time. If you are “liquid as fuck” and own your house and have no debit and you want to continue to gamble that the price will go higher than here my hat is off to you.

If you had 100K worth of BTC Last March and yesterday it was worth $1M and you have a mortgage and car loans and a couple of credit cards you are crazy for not selling half and paying everything off.

[sonatine]

My point is was and always has been this. If you have held BTC at any point of the last 10 years you had a huge capital appreciation unless you bought yesterday for the first time. If you are “liquid as fuck” and own your house and have no debit and you want to continue to gamble that the price will go higher than here my hat is off to you.

If you had 100K worth of BTC Last March and yesterday it was worth $1M and you have a mortgage and car loans and a couple of credit cards you are crazy for not selling half and paying everything off.

my concern is if you held since entering a position last march, the odds are very good that you'll never sell, and in a few years youll be staring at grocery money in your account where there was once grocery store money.

[Daly]

My point is was and always has been this. If you have held BTC at any point of the last 10 years you had a huge capital appreciation unless you bought yesterday for the first time. If you are “liquid as fuck” and own your house and have no debit and you want to continue to gamble that the price will go higher than here my hat is off to you.

If you had 100K worth of BTC Last March and yesterday it was worth $1M and you have a mortgage and car loans and a couple of credit cards you are crazy for not selling half and paying everything off.

my concern is if you held since entering a position last march, the odds are very good that you'll never sell, and in a few years youll be staring at grocery money in your account where there was once grocery store money.

Exactly - but I’m willing to admit it might go to 300K someday which means there is a risk to selling. My point is take the bird in hand because you will never regret selling half now if it means you are truly
Financially independent even if it goes to $1M a coin. You still going to be filty rich.

[sonatine]

Embedded Tweet

https://twitter.com/twt/status/1348540905821671425

[Dan Druff]

Back to $35,700.

But the crash was sobering. Many thought it would just rocket unhindered up to $100k.

Something else to note, in case you want "in":

The higher BTC is, the less upside there is in buying it.

If you buy it at $40k, you only double your money if it goes to $80k, but you lose 75% of your money if it crashes back to $10k.

At this point, some kind of exponential upside (like what existed in early 2016, when it was $400) is pretty much nonexistent.

[nightmarefish]

Back to $35,700.

But the crash was sobering. Many thought it would just rocket unhindered up to $100k.

Something else to note, in case you want "in":

The higher BTC is, the less upside there is in buying it.

If you buy it at $40k, you only double your money if it goes to $80k, but you lose 75% of your money if it crashes back to $10k.

At this point, some kind of exponential upside (like what existed in early 2016, when it was $400) is pretty much nonexistent.

It just went 10x in a year. It will probably eventually be 10x from the current price.

[Walter Sobchak]

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/12/t...gtype=Homepage

Stefan Thomas, a German-born programmer living in San Francisco, has two guesses left to figure out a password that is worth, as of this week, about $220 million.

The password will let him unlock a small hard drive, known as an IronKey, which contains the private keys to a digital wallet that holds 7,002 Bitcoin. While the price of Bitcoin dropped sharply on Monday, it is still up more than 50 percent from just a month ago when it passed its previous all-time high around $20,000.

The problem is that Mr. Thomas years ago lost the paper where he wrote down the password for his IronKey, which gives users 10 guesses before it seizes up and encrypts its contents forever. He has since tried eight of his most commonly used password formulations — to no avail.

[sonatine]

Embedded Tweet

https://twitter.com/twt/status/1348746423127433216

[Sheesfaced]

Back to $35,700.

But the crash was sobering. Many thought it would just rocket unhindered up to $100k.

Something else to note, in case you want "in":

The higher BTC is, the less upside there is in buying it.

If you buy it at $40k, you only double your money if it goes to $80k, but you lose 75% of your money if it crashes back to $10k.

At this point, some kind of exponential upside (like what existed in early 2016, when it was $400) is pretty much nonexistent.

I mean the exact same thing could’ve been said when it went from $1 to $10; $100 to $1000, $1000 to $10000 etc so there’s really no way for anyone to know that.

[Dan Druff]

Back to $35,700.

But the crash was sobering. Many thought it would just rocket unhindered up to $100k.

Something else to note, in case you want "in":

The higher BTC is, the less upside there is in buying it.

If you buy it at $40k, you only double your money if it goes to $80k, but you lose 75% of your money if it crashes back to $10k.

At this point, some kind of exponential upside (like what existed in early 2016, when it was $400) is pretty much nonexistent.

I mean the exact same thing could’ve been said when it went from $1 to $10; $100 to $1000, $1000 to $10000 etc so there’s really no way for anyone to know that.

The argument for $1000 is reasonable, but not the others.

There's a ceiling to this, obviously. Will BTC ever be worth a billion each? Obviously not. A million? Unlikely. $100,000? Maybe, but that's probably the top.

I think we're not far from the highest realistic value.

[Sheesfaced]

I mean the exact same thing could’ve been said when it went from $1 to $10; $100 to $1000, $1000 to $10000 etc so there’s really no way for anyone to know that.

The argument for $1000 is reasonable, but not the others.

There's a ceiling to this, obviously. Will BTC ever be worth a billion each? Obviously not. A million? Unlikely. $100,000? Maybe, but that's probably the top.

I think we're not far from the highest realistic value.

Again you’re argument is absurd. You are picking a completely arbitrary value with your “reasonable” assessment. By definition there is literally no ceiling. Did you think $1,000 was a reasonable value when bitcoin was worth $16?

Logically, the higher is goes the harder it is for it to continue to go up exponentially which I think is your point; and if so I of course agree with that. But there’s absolutely no way to know for sure and to say there’s a ceiling to an uncapped asset is factually wrong.

Ask people who shorted Tesla stock about the proverbial non-existing ceiling.

I’m not even bullish on bitcoin I’m just calling out you stating your opinion as a fact as you often are apt to do.

[Dan Druff]

The argument for $1000 is reasonable, but not the others.

There's a ceiling to this, obviously. Will BTC ever be worth a billion each? Obviously not. A million? Unlikely. $100,000? Maybe, but that's probably the top.

I think we're not far from the highest realistic value.

Again you’re argument is absurd. You are picking a completely arbitrary value with your “reasonable” assessment. By definition there is literally no ceiling. Did you think $1,000 was a reasonable value when bitcoin was worth $16?

Logically, the higher is goes the harder it is for it to continue to go up exponentially which I think is your point; and if so I of course agree with that. But there’s absolutely no way to know for sure and to say there’s a ceiling to an uncapped asset is wrong.

Ask people who shorted Tesla stock about the proverbial non-existing ceiling.

I’m not even bullish on bitcoin I’m just calling out you stating your opinion as a fact as you often are apt to do.

Of course I don't know the exact ceiling. That part is a guess.

What's not a guess is that we are to the point to where it's nearly impossible for it to go up exponentially, given the unrealistic market cap which would result from it.

When bitcoin was $5 or even $500, that wasn't true.

Right now, the market cap is $661 billion, give or take. The entire US economy was $21.5 trillion in 2019 -- and that was before COVID. See the problem here? How much further up can it go? (Yes, I realize bitcoin is international, but I was stating the two numbers just to show you how absurdly high it already is.)

In March 2016, market cap was about 6.5 billion, so obviously it had room to grow (though clearly it wasn't certain whether it would do so).

[sonatine]

what was the ceiling on beanie babies?

[Sheesfaced]

Again you’re argument is absurd. You are picking a completely arbitrary value with your “reasonable” assessment. By definition there is literally no ceiling. Did you think $1,000 was a reasonable value when bitcoin was worth $16?

Logically, the higher is goes the harder it is for it to continue to go up exponentially which I think is your point; and if so I of course agree with that. But there’s absolutely no way to know for sure and to say there’s a ceiling to an uncapped asset is wrong.

Ask people who shorted Tesla stock about the proverbial non-existing ceiling.

I’m not even bullish on bitcoin I’m just calling out you stating your opinion as a fact as you often are apt to do.

Of course I don't know the exact ceiling. That part is a guess.

What's not a guess is that we are to the point to where it's nearly impossible for it to go up exponentially, given the unrealistic market cap which would result from it.

When bitcoin was $5 or even $500, that wasn't true.

Right now, the market cap is $661 billion, give or take. The entire US economy was $21.5 trillion in 2019 -- and that was before COVID. See the problem here? How much further up can it go? (Yes, I realize bitcoin is international, but I was stating the two numbers just to show you how absurdly high it already is.)

In March 2016, market cap was about 6.5 billion, so obviously it had room to grow (though clearly it wasn't certain whether it would do so).

And how exactly is the US economy’s market cap correlated to BTC’s market cap?

Again I’m not trying to advocate BTC is going to continue to grow exponentially and think it’s unlikely to continue to do so but you are picking a completely arbitrary point at which to say it no longer has the potential for exponential returns.

The fact that there is a capped supply of BTC definitely is one reason it could continue to grow exponentially though.

Comparing it to the US economy is meaningless.

[Sheesfaced]

what was the ceiling on beanie babies?

Depends on if you were long calls or short naked calls.

[Dan Druff]

Of course I don't know the exact ceiling. That part is a guess.

What's not a guess is that we are to the point to where it's nearly impossible for it to go up exponentially, given the unrealistic market cap which would result from it.

When bitcoin was $5 or even $500, that wasn't true.

Right now, the market cap is $661 billion, give or take. The entire US economy was $21.5 trillion in 2019 -- and that was before COVID. See the problem here? How much further up can it go? (Yes, I realize bitcoin is international, but I was stating the two numbers just to show you how absurdly high it already is.)

In March 2016, market cap was about 6.5 billion, so obviously it had room to grow (though clearly it wasn't certain whether it would do so).

And how exactly is the US economy’s market cap correlated to BTC’s market cap?

Again I’m not trying to advocate BTC is going to continue to grow exponentially and think it’s unlikely to continue to do so but you are picking a completely arbitrary point at which to say it no longer has the potential for exponential returns.

The fact that there is a capped supply of BTC definitely is one reason it could continue to grow exponentially though.

Comparing it to the US economy is meaningless.

Again, I'm comparing it to the US economy to show the absurd size it's already at.

So do you think it will ever reach 1 billion per coin? I doubt you think that's possible. But why not? I thought you said it's uncapped!

Obviously there's a realistic limit to this. If it grows 10 times what it is now, it will be about 1/3 the size of the entire US economy. If it grows 100x what it is now, it would be about 3x BIGGER than the entire US economy. It grew 100x in the past 46 months, by the way.

The "anything's possible" attitude is what rubes will use to buy in at this point, figuring that it might go up by a factor of 100 once again. I'm here to say that's not happening, and that while I don't know the top point, the days of 100-fold growth are long over.

[gimmick]

It could go up 1% a year and that is still considered exponential growth. Any number above 0% will do. There is no other meaning to exponential growth.

[Dan Druff]

It could go up 1% a year and that is still considered exponential growth. Any number above 0% will do. There is no other meaning to exponential growth.

That's not the common meaning of it. What argument are you going to make next? That gay people aren't really gay because many aren't happy?

Please keep this "exponential growth" nonsense out of this thread. If you want to continue that dumb debate in the COVID thread, bring it back up over there.

Thank you.

[gimmick]

It could go up 1% a year and that is still considered exponential growth. Any number above 0% will do. There is no other meaning to exponential growth.

That's not the common meaning of it. What argument are you going to make next? That gay people aren't really gay because many aren't happy?

Please keep this "exponential growth" nonsense out of this thread. If you want to continue that dumb debate in the COVID thread, bring it back up over there.

Thank you.

Lol it's the only meaning of it. We don't change mathematical terms because retards keep misusing them.

And while we're at it, at 30k BTC would have reached 100k in 121 years with 1% a year.

[gimmick]

https://www.rapidtables.com/calc/mat...alculator.html

353 years is the point it breaks 1 million.