Quote Originally Posted by PLOL View Post
Quote Originally Posted by abrown83 View Post
First poll to crack and hedge back to 2016 turnout.

DM Register, Iowa.

Will be interesting to see how many more across the country do it too.

That’s what happened in 2016 for all those that forgot, Clinton constantly showed up 6-10 until the polls the final three days all magically swung 3 points towards Trump.
Fact check: True.

Though in 2016 we know what the catalyst was. The Comey letter dropped 3 days before the election and the polls swung towards Trump. I'm not sure what the catalyst would be now, but this should be the poll that worries Biden the most at the moment. Every pollster on the planet is about to drop their final poll in the next couple days, so we'll see what it is.
Comey letter was 11 days ahead of the election in 2016 and for sure played a part in the outcome.

There is an outlier in the poll, IA-01 district shows +9 Trump, in a D held House District. If that's anywhere near true, Wisconsin and Michigan on election night might be interesting. My guess that part of the data could be bad and maybe it is really Trump +5 in the Statewide.

The pollsters changed up their tactics this time. Even heading into election day there were a lot of "undecided voters" in 2016. Which were really Trump voters hiding. This time most of the polls haven't given the voters an undecided choice. The DM Register poll gave them "Undecided" and "Won't Say". That totaled 7% which my guess is that's the embarrassed Trump supporter. I think there's only two ways the polling data is wrong this time. Trump voters are flat out lying to the pollsters (which I think is very possible) or the sampling is off (which I think is for sure true but maybe only 2-3% towards Ds which still puts Biden as a comfortable winner).