This is the exact opposite of the truth. Trump discouraged his supporters from voting by mail, so the early voting has skewed way in favor of the Democrats.
If COVID or some other factor like lines or weather suppresses in-person voting on election day, it will be to Trump's detriment.
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what are the current odds from a fair site? sunwager's odds seem out of whack to me.
I’d like to believe this, as far as them not showing in inclement weather, but I don’t know a single Trump voter who wouldn’t line up today. I’d line up today to vote against Trump, but idk if everyone is the same.
PA actually scares me. Im sure it’s a product of me spending my time in a very rural area, but these places were always red, but they weren’t some super turnout machine. Hand to God I know personally 20 people who didn’t vote at all last time who registered just to vote for Trump. And these people can vote for Trump in 90 seconds start to finish at some rural church. I can too where I live, but it isn’t the case where most Dems live.
I was a Steelers fan as a kid. Everything else Cleveland, but Youngstown is 50/50. I was born right at that time to start loving football as Bradshaw and the Steel Curtain emerged. I was until I moved to Pittsburgh and they were so over the top annoying that I grew to cheer against them and just lost my love of the pro game completely
People honking their horns after a pre-season win. It just got so annoying. Every day it’s all they wanted to talk about and you’d just be like shut the fuck up, there’s more to life.
All of western Pa is like that over Trump now. I struggle to be around them. So when blake says everyone he knows already voted, I guess I like that they already voted and are enthusiastic, but I’m wondering how many were apolitical previously and only now got engaged. I hope a lot.
My area is always talked about a lot politically for a small town. They mention it on this weeks 538 podcast specifically when trying to decide why Ohio is so much redder than PA and such, Trump lived here in 2016, and they basically said what I said, there isn’t one huge population center like Philly.
Where I live though, the Trump people are still Trump, but you can have a conversation about something else. Western PA man, it’s off the hook. It’s all Trump all day. People who couldn’t have named the Vice President ever now spend all day wanting to talk politics.
I hope blake is knocking on doors to gotv. I feel way more confident about Mi.
Basically every new count in states with early voting (like Florida) will be a 'Republican win'.
On election day, things will be backwards. A low turn out will benifit Democrats since they will have a much smaller % of voters who haven't voted yet. Basically, bad weather could cost Trump the presidency.
i had the same discussion with one of my trump supporting friends. of course, he doesn't trust the mail in voting (he thinks they can lose the ballots) and plans to vote in person.
this attitude is going to lead to a huge democrat advantage.
even if say 5% of ballots are lost or otherwise defective (just random number), there is -- at the very least -- a 25% chance that people who planned on voting will decide not to for whatever reason come election day.
i know i have looked at long lines before and just said fuck it, i'm bailing.
Here is my fear with the polls. I don’t believe the shy Trump voter bs. Clearly if you were going to be shy, you were going to be shy in CA and NY where being for Trump will get you mocked, and Clinton over performed there.
My fear is how divergent education is among white support. It’s always my theory as to why the polls were off last time and why they could be again. Try to call a blue collar guy without a degree for a poll and good luck with that. They’re working in a factory or driving a delivery truck and are hard to reach. They often work shifts and are sleeping. Historically, they weren’t so polarized, so getting a 50 year old white guy balanced out when you checked the box on your demos. This became way more polarized during the pandemic. Every educated guy I know had basically all day to sit around and bs. Many still do depending on profession. I’d say 75% of blue collar guys worked throughout.
So like the pollsters aren’t going to miss the degree/no degree part. They are generally going to get that right, but not all degree//no degree people are the same. Many non degree people have carved out an upper middle class life. Some polls still aren’t filtering for education properly.
You can catch those guys without degrees who carved out a good outcome, and they’re far less angry at life. It’s the hardscrabble guy working shifts that’s hard to catch and they break so damn hard for Trump it’s enough to skew shit. And all these manufacturing facilities are smart enough to work these guys 50-60 hours a week, but make sure they are off on Election Day because it benefits them. States with the highest misery index are the reddest places in the country. They are the most Trump. He appeals to the miserable more profoundly, and they’re miserable because they’re working 60 hours a week for $12 an hour.
But those people exist everywhere, just larger in those states. Those people are hard to get on a poll and Trump is their hero. The pandemic has made that more profound. I’d guess this is the easiest year to get educated people on the phone and a guy with enough money to sit it out until shit breaks with the virus. Polls have a huge incentive to get this one right after the last go around because they’re going to be kind of laughed at if they’re way off again, but you can only get on a phone who you can get on a phone. I can call up my educated friends and can catch them almost always. Half my blue collar friends aren’t even allowed their phones in a manufacturing facility.
i imagine you can in most states. i know from experience you can do it in PA. i did that from my car in the primaries.
still, i think it's a risky proposition for republicans to all wait for election day to vote. i know they are fired up and i expect turnout to be huge (record breaking probably), but things come up in real life.
The oil industry actually hasn’t done that well under Trump
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/1...ndustry-432722
LOL.The oil industry’s fortunes have been withering on President Donald Trump’s watch, with dozens of oil companies falling into bankruptcy as weak crude prices take a toll on the sector he contends would be abolished if he’s not reelected.
Though some of those industry woes were emerging last year as companies grappled with a glut of oil, people in the business say they were made worse by the president’s trade wars and mishandling of the coronavirus pandemic. So far least 40 U.S. oil companies have sought bankruptcy protection in 2020 while dozens of others have slashed spending and cut tens of thousands of jobs.
Trump frustrated the industry last month by declaring vast swaths of shoreline off Florida and other states off-limits to drilling, an election-year reversal of his past promises to expand offshore production. And even one nominal bright spot for the industry — the administration’s aggressive rollback of regulations — has been so rushed and beset by legal challenges that Democrats may have little trouble reinstating the rules if they reclaim power.
Trump claims he is a great supporter of oil and gas, but his policies and mishandling of the coronavirus have caused many oil and gas companies to go bankrupt. Of course then he just blames Obama and Biden and takes no responsibility.
Mission Accomplished!!!
The pollsters are well aware of this and are aware that this threw off their models last time. Nobody was aware how huge a factor education was in determining vote choice because it hadn't been as big of a factor before. The pollsters have corrected for this and taken into account this time.
A lot of people think pollsters just call 1,000 people and whoever answers answers, or take the first 1,000 people to answer, or whatever. That's not the case. All of them, certainly the ones worth paying attention to, have a model of the electorate in each state and they keep calling until they put together a sample that looks like their model of the electorate. If they think 40% of the electorate in that state will be noncollege whites they'll make sure that 40% of their final sample is composed of noncollege whites. They did that before with age, race, gender, etc. but this is the first election they've broken it down by education too.
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But her emails. But antifa. But Hunter's laptop. But pronouns.
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