**OFFICIAL Donald J. Trump vs. Joseph (Joe) R. Biden Thread - 2020 Presidential Election**

[Sanlmar]

Chris Christie is being moved to intensive cake

Someone dies I’m going to have to rent a movie for the night of Nov 3rd.

Nixon McGovern type landslide

Btw i am a silent follower but enjoying your stuff

[mickeycrimm]

In October 2016 all the polls started showing Hillary with a double digit lead. The polls are totally phony. Over sample this group under sample that group to get desired results.

[thesidedish]

USA is getting killed by Corona cuz we are the most out of shape AINEC but christ christie in big trouble is fake news I think

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https://twitter.com/twt/status/1313874828454252552

[Sanlmar]

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https://twitter.com/twt/status/1313854745711382529

Say what you will but Trump & Bannon’s stance not being the world’s policeman was a nice change from the past 75 years

[PLOL]

Plop's state of the race.

[thesidedish]

Plop, I've been looking for the new hongthonger to give me odds on a #trumpslide, I think u might be my guy

[PLOL]

Plop, I've been looking for the new hongthonger to give me odds on a #trumpslide, I think u might be my guy

What's on your mind? I don't love locking up large amounts of money to give huge odds on anything, but I'll entertain offers.

I'd rather just give you +175 on Trump

[duped_samaritan]

In October 2016 all the polls started showing Hillary with a double digit lead. The polls are totally phony. Over sample this group under sample that group to get desired results.

The reason you think the polls are phony is because you don't understand how they work and Trump told you they were phony and you bought it.

Here are all the polls leading up to the 2016 election.



She ended up receiving 2.09% more votes than Trump.

[BiffCo99]

In October 2016 all the polls started showing Hillary with a double digit lead. The polls are totally phony. Over sample this group under sample that group to get desired results.

The reason you think the polls are phony is because you don't understand how they work and Trump told you they were phony and you bought it.

Here are all the polls leading up to the 2016 election.



She ended up receiving 2.09% more votes than Trump.

There were polls like this in October that got major attention nationwide. That’s his point.

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https://twitter.com/MZHemingway/status/1312776266832117760

[PLOL]

Your criticism of the media cherry picking individual polls and elevating them is fair. That shouldn't be done, but you should be smart enough to not think that way. However, Biden's margin now is much larger than Hillary's ever was.

Also, in early to mid October 2016 there were a high number of undecideds in the polls. When there's a high number of undecideds it's much easier to have a late momentum shift, for obvious reasons. This year, there's practically no undecideds in the polls. Where is this shift magically going to come from?

Honestly lol at anyone who doesn't think Scranton Joe will get 1% more than Crooked Hillary in the Great Lakes states in the midst of a pandemic against a president with very low approval numbers.

[PLOL]

Ken Bone formally endorse Jo Jorgensen for president. And yes it still wasn't enough to get my remaining Jo "NO" shares filled. Sad!

[BiffCo99]

Your criticism of the media cherry picking individual polls and elevating them is fair. That shouldn't be done, but you should be smart enough to not think that way. However, Biden's margin now is much larger than Hillary's ever was.

Also, in early to mid October 2016 there were a high number of undecideds in the polls. When there's a high number of undecideds it's much easier to have a late momentum shift, for obvious reasons. This year, there's practically no undecideds in the polls. Where is this shift magically going to come from?

Honestly lol at anyone who doesn't think Scranton Joe will get 1% more than Crooked Hillary in the Great Lakes states in the midst of a pandemic against a president with very low approval numbers.

These are interesting polling numbers in battleground States as compared to 2016:

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https://twitter.com/FrankLuntz/status/1313535743554396160

Biden appears to be doing slightly better than Hillary but they are pretty similar and who knows what the next four weeks may bring that could tighten things further. I still would not underestimate the hidden Trump vote. It’s even less socially acceptable to say you’re voting for Trump in 2020 than four years ago.

[tgull]

Your criticism of the media cherry picking individual polls and elevating them is fair. That shouldn't be done, but you should be smart enough to not think that way. However, Biden's margin now is much larger than Hillary's ever was.

Also, in early to mid October 2016 there were a high number of undecideds in the polls. When there's a high number of undecideds it's much easier to have a late momentum shift, for obvious reasons. This year, there's practically no undecideds in the polls. Where is this shift magically going to come from?

Honestly lol at anyone who doesn't think Scranton Joe will get 1% more than Crooked Hillary in the Great Lakes states in the midst of a pandemic against a president with very low approval numbers.

What is more ridiculous is guys like you. There are plenty of books that will take all the action you can give on Biden. Why not just do it and post your bets? I am not talking $5K that is chump change. I am talking about a six figures, liquid. Why not make the bet, post it? You would have bragging rights for life on this 8th tier site and would make money too. You either don't have the funds or don't have the balls, each is sad.

[VaughnP]

In October 2016 all the polls started showing Hillary with a double digit lead. The polls are totally phony. Over sample this group under sample that group to get desired results.

The reason you think the polls are phony is because you don't understand how they work and Trump told you they were phony and you bought it.

Here are all the polls leading up to the 2016 election.



She ended up receiving 2.09% more votes than Trump.

Traflagar Group, a consulting firm out of Georgia that does very few polls, was the only poll to show Trump winning Michigan and one of just two showing him winning Pennsylvania in 2016.

They released a poll for Minnesota last night that has Biden and Trump tied. People will make fun of this and call them overly Republican biased etc., but they also showed Trump winning Georgia by +7 in 2016 when people called it a possible swing state after a couple polls showed Clinton actually ahead there. The final result was Trump +5.

Minnesota is probably the least likely of these to flip, and if it really is this close, the neighboring 2016 rust belt states have to be a huge value currently for Trump bettors.

Polling reminder:

AP poll released 10/24/2016 Clinton +13
ABC News Poll released 10/23/2016 Clinton +12
USA Today Poll released 10/24/2016 Clinton +10
Pew Research Poll released 10/25/2016 Clinton +7

Dozen or so +6 area etc.

These polls conveniently tightened up dramatically in the releases the last two days before the election. Part of it was some making up their mind, but no way were 8% of the electorate undecided in late October. They tried to drop the bias to reestablish credibility. I honestly believe this was also to push the narrative and talking point we've heard since then: "but the polls weren't wrong". Even in the final polls, most were off by 3-4 points. People discredit everything team Trump says, but extremely biased polling definitely is an intentional form of voter suppression. It squashes enthusiasm.

[VaughnP]

Your criticism of the media cherry picking individual polls and elevating them is fair. That shouldn't be done, but you should be smart enough to not think that way. However, Biden's margin now is much larger than Hillary's ever was.

Also, in early to mid October 2016 there were a high number of undecideds in the polls. When there's a high number of undecideds it's much easier to have a late momentum shift, for obvious reasons. This year, there's practically no undecideds in the polls. Where is this shift magically going to come from?

Honestly lol at anyone who doesn't think Scranton Joe will get 1% more than Crooked Hillary in the Great Lakes states in the midst of a pandemic against a president with very low approval numbers.

These are interesting polling numbers in battleground States as compared to 2016:

Embedded Tweet

https://twitter.com/FrankLuntz/status/1313535743554396160

Biden appears to be doing slightly better than Hillary but they are pretty similar and who knows what the next four weeks may bring that could tighten things further. I still would not underestimate the hidden Trump vote. It’s even less socially acceptable to say you’re voting for Trump in 2020 than four years ago.

It's eerily similar, but there's strong evidence that he has lost the boomer vote, which is why I think he will lose a close race unless something changes.

[PLOL]

Your criticism of the media cherry picking individual polls and elevating them is fair. That shouldn't be done, but you should be smart enough to not think that way. However, Biden's margin now is much larger than Hillary's ever was.

Also, in early to mid October 2016 there were a high number of undecideds in the polls. When there's a high number of undecideds it's much easier to have a late momentum shift, for obvious reasons. This year, there's practically no undecideds in the polls. Where is this shift magically going to come from?

Honestly lol at anyone who doesn't think Scranton Joe will get 1% more than Crooked Hillary in the Great Lakes states in the midst of a pandemic against a president with very low approval numbers.

These are interesting polling numbers in battleground States as compared to 2016:

Embedded Tweet

https://twitter.com/FrankLuntz/status/1313535743554396160

Biden appears to be doing slightly better than Hillary but they are pretty similar and who knows what the next four weeks may bring that could tighten things further. I still would not underestimate the hidden Trump vote. It’s even less socially acceptable to say you’re voting for Trump in 2020 than four years ago.

There's a lot of problems with this theory. Here's a couple
1. If this was true you'd expect a greater discrepancy between online pollsters (and touchpad phone polls) and live caller pollsters. You'd expect Bide to do better in the online polls. If you're a "closet" Trump supporter, I guess we can buy that you're afraid to tell a person on the phone that you're voting for Trump. But you're afraid to tell an online poll that you're voting for Trump so you lie and say Biden but in the ballot box you'll still vote Trump. That's quite outlandish

2. If this was true you would've expected polls to be off the most in left-leaning states in 2016. If you live in a left leaning state, it's more likely more of your social group and peers are liberal and it would be more socially unacceptable to be a Trump supporter. If you live in a far right state, you probably don't have this issue (you might actually have the issue being a Biden/Clinton supporter). Do you know what states had the largest polling error and undercounted Trump in 2016? It was Tennessee and South Dakota. Trump /underperformed/ his polls in states like California, where you would expect a greater stigma. Not what you would expect given this theory. You would NOT expect this breakdown:



3. If you're a "shy" Trump voter, aren't you more likely to refuse to answer a pollster or just say "you're unsure". Are you really going to lie and say you're voting for Biden. Does that logic check out? So your theory would have greater weight if there was a high number of "refuse to answer" or "Unsure" responses in polls. We're seeing a very low number of that in this cycle.


So yes, polls were off in 2016, but it wasn't due to "closeted Trump voters". We can actually pretty soundly disprove that using math and reason.

You can read pages and pages about this, but here's some primers on it:
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...-missed-trump/

https://fivethirtyeight.com/videos/s...nt-swing-2020/

[PLOL]

Trafalgar is the worst pollster in the country and should be ignored. If tomorrow they come out with a Biden +10 poll, it should also be ignored. It's not that they skew their numbers in favor of Trump, it's that they literally just decide what they want their poll numbers to be and then they publish it. They are not a serious polling outfit and anybody who cites a Trafalgar number can be immediately dismissed.

[big dick]

Your criticism of the media cherry picking individual polls and elevating them is fair. That shouldn't be done, but you should be smart enough to not think that way. However, Biden's margin now is much larger than Hillary's ever was.

Also, in early to mid October 2016 there were a high number of undecideds in the polls. When there's a high number of undecideds it's much easier to have a late momentum shift, for obvious reasons. This year, there's practically no undecideds in the polls. Where is this shift magically going to come from?

Honestly lol at anyone who doesn't think Scranton Joe will get 1% more than Crooked Hillary in the Great Lakes states in the midst of a pandemic against a president with very low approval numbers.

What is more ridiculous is guys like you. There are plenty of books that will take all the action you can give on Biden. Why not just do it and post your bets? I am not talking $5K that is chump change. I am talking about a six figures, liquid. Why not make the bet, post it? You would have bragging rights for life on this 8th tier site and would make money too. You either don't have the funds or don't have the balls, each is sad.

Does the no carb diet really work?
I am trying to get super healthy in Covid-19, because it appears it is not going away. I am about 10lbs overweight, and I do flutter up to 20lbs overweight. My BMI usually is in the mid 20s but I am in my 40s now so that can get tricky.

I hate with a passion being overweight, and tried numerous diets, they work for a few weeks then fail. I am thinking about stripping carbs out like 80%. I get you cant remove them 100%, but 80% is a good ratio.

Anyone gone on a relative carb free diet? Not looking for flames, just looking to dodge another bout of Covid-19. I have given up most booze, not all but a lot. Issue is I sugar fiend at night, ice cream is the worst invention ever, when I am not drinking I crave sugar treats.

Having alcohol in my system generally is a huge benefit, I sleep so much better. When I am dry for a few days, I get paranoid at night. Usually about 3am when I take a leak.

[PLOL]

Your criticism of the media cherry picking individual polls and elevating them is fair. That shouldn't be done, but you should be smart enough to not think that way. However, Biden's margin now is much larger than Hillary's ever was.

Also, in early to mid October 2016 there were a high number of undecideds in the polls. When there's a high number of undecideds it's much easier to have a late momentum shift, for obvious reasons. This year, there's practically no undecideds in the polls. Where is this shift magically going to come from?

Honestly lol at anyone who doesn't think Scranton Joe will get 1% more than Crooked Hillary in the Great Lakes states in the midst of a pandemic against a president with very low approval numbers.

What is more ridiculous is guys like you. There are plenty of books that will take all the action you can give on Biden. Why not just do it and post your bets? I am not talking $5K that is chump change. I am talking about a six figures, liquid. Why not make the bet, post it? You would have bragging rights for life on this 8th tier site and would make money too. You either don't have the funds or don't have the balls, each is sad.

Not sure what you're talking about. I've been betting plenty on Biden. I have $25k on the election and will likely be adding up to $10k more. I will consider making a separate thread breaking down and posting all my bets if you'd like. I've sort of teased them here and there.

[big dick]

Trafalgar is the worst pollster in the country and should be ignored. If tomorrow they come out with a Biden +10 poll, it should also be ignored. It's not that they skew their numbers in favor of Trump, it's that they literally just decide what they want their poll numbers to be and then they publish it. They are not a serious polling outfit and anybody who cites a Trafalgar number can be immediately dismissed.

My back up has arrived.

I'm out

I will see you guys End of October

Don't miss me too much

BIDEN/HARRIS2020

Make America Great again!!


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