Fuck, my timing is bad.Originally Posted by Dan Druff
In hindsight, I should have waited until after the first debate, because a poor Romney performance wouldn't have affected the odds much (since he was already considered dead in the water), while a great Romney performance would increase the odds a lot in his favor.
He crushed in the debate, and now I have a terrible value bet.
*warning, rant alert*
Nice. I almost posted that I considered betting Romney when i read that Obama had called the debate practice "exhausting" after only a couple hours of practice. I knew obama thought his lead was locked up and probably considered betting on himself. The lead was just enough to lull him into laziness, but not large enough that it can't be overcome. This may come down to who wants the presidency more and right now that is Romney. After listening to the debate there is not a dime worth of difference between these two clowns, Romney sounded like the centrist that he is, not the radical, immigration hating right winger that he isn't but pretended to be all the way up until that debate. I've never been so unsure how a person would actually govern before as I never seen someone like Romney be so openly flip-floppy on nearly every issue. I am certain he knew he couldn't win the primary without a make-believe hard right turn. But I'm not certain which Mitt would show up at the White House. remember he wouldn't have to worry about a primary if he governed from the center and pissed off the tea party but I'm now leaning to that being the distinct possibility. Exciting, because we could get some cool shit done with a moderate Republican just like we got some cool shit done with Clinton. Fact is, he went soft-opposite of nearly every Republican platform last night.
Another fact is Romney should win the Presidency (no a prediction, a criticism of his campaign) and should be winning long before this debate considering historical and economic factors. Just Obama being black truly does cost him a few points. The reasons why Romney is losing are many, but the biggest reason has to be that people just don't like him. I think that is because he wasn't being himself. A centrist. Now he is and he is much more comfortable in that role. Even though Obama is governing and acting like a centrist (please don't try to argue this point people who think he is a socialist, I'm talking about his actual policy), I don't believe he IS a centrist. So I think romney's move to the center was brilliant. he was being more of himself than Obama.
That said, he is still an asshole. And his chosen profession of carving up companies and laying people off does not seem like a economic plan to the average low IQ American voter. It is impossible to explain in a debate or commercial as to exactly how Bain Capital is a benefit to the US. Well, they are, if they pay their fair share of taxes. Which they don't. Which isn't Romney's fault, but I digress........
Bottom line, I think this thing is 50/50. I'm still voting Obama because I am seriously scared of the GOP guys in the house. Those guys are seriously fucking retarded about the economy, people's rights etc. The GOP Senate should keep them at bay but Demint and a couple other idealogues are gaining power and if the GOP wins in the Indiana and Missouri senate races, 2014 senate picks ups which are upcoming (There are several Dem senators with no chance of winning that could easily see tea Party types win their primary without fear of losing in the general) could seriously see the tea Party, a radical group of misinformed, non-comprimising, clueless idealogues, write America's laws for 2 years with Romney powerless to stop it.
idealogues from either party should never get to actually write laws, just balance policy during political pendulum swings.
TLDR
Bet on Romney. he will gain at least 3 points and Dem polling methods could easily be 2-3 points off already. I'm not saying Rasmussen is right but it if the polls have been off, they are likely to slightly favor Obama's chances IMHO.
Druff, serious question. With all you know about how I dabble in InTrade, why would you not look in to that first? You can make a rake-free bet on InTrade and get better odds instead of dealing with Bodog. I would've even funded your account for a small fee.Fuck, my timing is bad.
In hindsight, I should have waited until after the first debate, because a poor Romney performance wouldn't have affected the odds much (since he was already considered dead in the water), while a great Romney performance would increase the odds a lot in his favor.
He crushed in the debate, and now I have a terrible value bet.
I've brought Intrade up to druff a few times, not sure why but it seems like he just isn't into it.
I've arbitraged with so many people irl using InTrade, it's not even funny.
I have some Romney at $2.20ish on Intrade, I think this coming Wednesday I'll sell, or if he gets anywhere near $4. A little mad I didn't accept an offer from someone at 8-1 on Romney, but I knew they would never buy-out with Obama so that was a different kind of bet, but i could have hedged with inTrade like PLOL says above.
I write things about poker at my Poker Blog and elsewhere on the Internets
I did it on a whim and didn't think about InTrade.Druff, serious question. With all you know about how I dabble in InTrade, why would you not look in to that first? You can make a rake-free bet on InTrade and get better odds instead of dealing with Bodog. I would've even funded your account for a small fee.
Fuck, my timing is bad.
In hindsight, I should have waited until after the first debate, because a poor Romney performance wouldn't have affected the odds much (since he was already considered dead in the water), while a great Romney performance would increase the odds a lot in his favor.
He crushed in the debate, and now I have a terrible value bet.
I bought right around 4400 shares.
Sold 4000 shares.
Held on to 400ish shares. My thought process is if Romney goes above $4.5, I sell half and then will ride out the other half.
If Romney struggles in the next debate or doesn't bounce in the polls, and hangs in the $3-$4 range, I will probably dump 7-10 days prior to the election.
I ended up dumping the rest of these when Romney blipped above $4.
I ended up netting north of 5k in profit.
So what does any sane person do? I am in the process of buying up 4k worth of Romney on InTrade, going to ride it out through election night.
Three things pushed me over the top to make this bet.
Early voting numbers - Yes, Democrats are ahead, but no where near 2008 numbers in almost every swing state. I am actually beginning to believe this election won't even be close (Obamaesque 2008 victory but for Romney).
Undecided voters - By this point anyone that is undecided isn't deciding between Romney and Obama. They are deciding whether or not they are going to vote for Romney.
Republican ground game - 2008 the Democrats really smoked the Republicans as far as ground game goes. The Republicans have really caught up. They have gone door-to-door to almost every registered Republican in swing states. They use cell phones and tablets to record the persons answer, if they haven't voted after knocking on their door, they are being lined up for a reminder call on election day. This isn't new, it is just the Republicans catching up organizationally to the Democrats (might be worth 1%).
Should be an interesting week. I may chicken out and sell some early if Romney bumps up on InTrade, but if not, good luck me!
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