So coronavirus is definitely going to kill a few of us.

[BCR]

Heard pod regarding testing.

They looked at chance of getting a false negative test.

First day after infection, the false negative rate is 100%. It drops from day 2-4 from 90s to 68% chance you’ll still get negative test on day 4. On day 5, which is the average day first symptoms occur, you still have 38% chance of a false negative.

From day 6-8 after infected, you bottom out at 20% of false negative test on day 8 after infection. So three days after symptoms start.

After that, false negatives go back up as your immunity system kicks in. That seems problematic as most people report day 7 or 8 after symptoms start as when it starts to get scary or more severe.

By that point the false negative rate is already rising again if you present to ER. No exact percentages were given, but they start rising from 20% false negative on the third day after symptoms start, so by a week after first symptoms, with your immune system fighting it, there is probably a decently higher than 20% chance of greater false negatives 3-5 days after the optimal third day.

That’s confusing but third day after symptoms is best time to get test. Early worthless. After sick a week, probably at least a third chance you’ll get a false negative. I’ve known two people who tested negative after being sure they had it and doctors convinced. 72 year old woman. 50ish guy. Both with that extreme exhaustion and short of breath. Neither got tested until probably a week after start of symptoms. I would guess this is the norm as most people aren’t going to seek test with mild symptoms. But if you’re at all high risk or want to know, go get a test on third day after first symptom. Loss of taste or whatever. That’s your best bet.

So basically the takeaway is the testing sucks pretty hard. You’re basically still at almost 70% the day before symptoms start and almost 40% to get a false negative day symptoms start. So if you get sick, your best chance at a diagnosis is about 3 days after you get sick, in which case you have an 80% chance to be correctly diagnosed. After that it gets worse again. That seems like one shit test.

Anyway, thought I’d pass it along in case anyone gets exposed to someone and thinks they’ll get ahead of the illness and get tested. Pretty worthless to do so. I hadn’t heard or read that information anywhere.

It also shows why this fucker is so contagious as they also found virus shedding is most prevalent right before symptoms start, yet there would be a damn near 70% chance you’d still get a false negative at that point where you’re most contagious.

[Wiganer]

Heard pod regarding testing.

They looked at chance of getting a false negative test.

First day after infection, the false negative rate is 100%. It drops from day 2-4 from 90s to 68% chance you’ll still get negative test on day 4. On day 5, which is the average day first symptoms occur, you still have 38% chance of a false negative.

From day 6-8 after infected, you bottom out at 20% of false negative test on day 8 after infection. So three days after symptoms start.

After that, false negatives go back up as your immunity system kicks in. That seems problematic as most people report day 7 or 8 after symptoms start as when it starts to get scary or more severe.

By that point the false negative rate is already rising again if you present to ER. No exact percentages were given, but they start rising from 20% false negative on the third day after symptoms start, so by a week after first symptoms, with your immune system fighting it, there is probably a decently higher than 20% chance of greater false negatives 3-5 days after the optimal third day.

That’s confusing but third day after symptoms is best time to get test. Early worthless. After sick a week, probably at least a third chance you’ll get a false negative. I’ve known two people who tested negative after being sure they had it and doctors convinced. 72 year old woman. 50ish guy. Both with that extreme exhaustion and short of breath. Neither got tested until probably a week after start of symptoms. I would guess this is the norm as most people aren’t going to seek test with mild symptoms. But if you’re at all high risk or want to know, go get a test on third day after first symptom. Loss of taste or whatever. That’s your best bet.

So basically the takeaway is the testing sucks pretty hard. You’re basically still at almost 70% the day before symptoms start and almost 40% to get a false negative day symptoms start. So if you get sick, your best chance at a diagnosis is about 3 days after you get sick, in which case you have an 80% chance to be correctly diagnosed. After that it gets worse again. That seems like one shit test.

Anyway, thought I’d pass it along in case anyone gets exposed to someone and thinks they’ll get ahead of the illness and get tested. Pretty worthless to do so. I hadn’t heard or read that information anywhere.

It also shows why this fucker is so contagious as they also found virus shedding is most prevalent right before symptoms start, yet there would be a damn near 70% chance you’d still get a false negative at that point where you’re most contagious.

This may be correct, but if so, why has South Korea done so well, with its test, trace, contain approach?

[BCR]

Heard pod regarding testing.

They looked at chance of getting a false negative test.

First day after infection, the false negative rate is 100%. It drops from day 2-4 from 90s to 68% chance you’ll still get negative test on day 4. On day 5, which is the average day first symptoms occur, you still have 38% chance of a false negative.

From day 6-8 after infected, you bottom out at 20% of false negative test on day 8 after infection. So three days after symptoms start.

After that, false negatives go back up as your immunity system kicks in. That seems problematic as most people report day 7 or 8 after symptoms start as when it starts to get scary or more severe.

By that point the false negative rate is already rising again if you present to ER. No exact percentages were given, but they start rising from 20% false negative on the third day after symptoms start, so by a week after first symptoms, with your immune system fighting it, there is probably a decently higher than 20% chance of greater false negatives 3-5 days after the optimal third day.

That’s confusing but third day after symptoms is best time to get test. Early worthless. After sick a week, probably at least a third chance you’ll get a false negative. I’ve known two people who tested negative after being sure they had it and doctors convinced. 72 year old woman. 50ish guy. Both with that extreme exhaustion and short of breath. Neither got tested until probably a week after start of symptoms. I would guess this is the norm as most people aren’t going to seek test with mild symptoms. But if you’re at all high risk or want to know, go get a test on third day after first symptom. Loss of taste or whatever. That’s your best bet.

So basically the takeaway is the testing sucks pretty hard. You’re basically still at almost 70% the day before symptoms start and almost 40% to get a false negative day symptoms start. So if you get sick, your best chance at a diagnosis is about 3 days after you get sick, in which case you have an 80% chance to be correctly diagnosed. After that it gets worse again. That seems like one shit test.

Anyway, thought I’d pass it along in case anyone gets exposed to someone and thinks they’ll get ahead of the illness and get tested. Pretty worthless to do so. I hadn’t heard or read that information anywhere.

It also shows why this fucker is so contagious as they also found virus shedding is most prevalent right before symptoms start, yet there would be a damn near 70% chance you’d still get a false negative at that point where you’re most contagious.

This may be correct, but if so, why has South Korea done so well, with its test, trace, contain approach?

I read a lot about it at the time. I have forgotten much of it.

Iirc. I think they made heavy use of phone technology. They knew the origin was that religious sect. Found anyone through technology who crossed paths with those people, and then anyone who crossed paths with people who crossed paths, etc, and proactively quarantined them before symptoms started.

I think any argument for contact tracing require a quarantine during the period before symptoms start. Clearly easier to do in highly advanced technology country with a more compliant populace and a central government with uniform laws rather than various laws like we have here and a bunch of states doing their own thing.

I would guess their mask culture was a huge part of their success also when people slipped through the net. I’ve saw many articles that estimate we’d have 80% less cases if we had 100% mask wearing. Idk how accurate that is given it was here before we knew it, but it likely helped South korea even when they were unable to trace someone through technology. The culture had near 100% mask compliance. So even someone they missed likely didn’t spread it much during that first 4 days beyond family, which they then contained.

They had the test sequenced and ready to go before it even hit. But I recall looking even when they had the drive thru testing, they still only had tested 1% of population. I think any positive generated texts to anyone they could see through technology and people proactively quarantined even if they weren’t sick yet. Being possibly exposed was enough for them .

[Dan Druff]

Heard pod regarding testing.

They looked at chance of getting a false negative test.

First day after infection, the false negative rate is 100%. It drops from day 2-4 from 90s to 68% chance you’ll still get negative test on day 4. On day 5, which is the average day first symptoms occur, you still have 38% chance of a false negative.

From day 6-8 after infected, you bottom out at 20% of false negative test on day 8 after infection. So three days after symptoms start.

After that, false negatives go back up as your immunity system kicks in. That seems problematic as most people report day 7 or 8 after symptoms start as when it starts to get scary or more severe.

By that point the false negative rate is already rising again if you present to ER. No exact percentages were given, but they start rising from 20% false negative on the third day after symptoms start, so by a week after first symptoms, with your immune system fighting it, there is probably a decently higher than 20% chance of greater false negatives 3-5 days after the optimal third day.

That’s confusing but third day after symptoms is best time to get test. Early worthless. After sick a week, probably at least a third chance you’ll get a false negative. I’ve known two people who tested negative after being sure they had it and doctors convinced. 72 year old woman. 50ish guy. Both with that extreme exhaustion and short of breath. Neither got tested until probably a week after start of symptoms. I would guess this is the norm as most people aren’t going to seek test with mild symptoms. But if you’re at all high risk or want to know, go get a test on third day after first symptom. Loss of taste or whatever. That’s your best bet.

So basically the takeaway is the testing sucks pretty hard. You’re basically still at almost 70% the day before symptoms start and almost 40% to get a false negative day symptoms start. So if you get sick, your best chance at a diagnosis is about 3 days after you get sick, in which case you have an 80% chance to be correctly diagnosed. After that it gets worse again. That seems like one shit test.

Anyway, thought I’d pass it along in case anyone gets exposed to someone and thinks they’ll get ahead of the illness and get tested. Pretty worthless to do so. I hadn’t heard or read that information anywhere.

It also shows why this fucker is so contagious as they also found virus shedding is most prevalent right before symptoms start, yet there would be a damn near 70% chance you’d still get a false negative at that point where you’re most contagious.

Thanks for this.

This is why I've been LOLing pretty hard at the casinos with the "We're gonna take people's temperatures coming in". I had always believed that this thing was most infectious during its first few days when nearly everyone who has it is asymptomatic.

This is also why I've also been saying on radio that we're not going to test and trace our way out of this, and that even in the early stages this would have been difficult or impossible.

I try to explain to the "This is just another seasonal flu" or "This is just another swine flu" crowd that this virus is highly unusual. It combines deadliness with a days-long asymptomatic phase, which allows it to both spread fast AND kill. Most viruses either do one or the other, but not both. The ones which spread easily aren't that deadly (like the common cold), and the ones which are deadly have a hard time spreading quickly (like Ebola).

[BCR]

More on South Korea

In short, 70 years ago we introduced them to our way of life. Since that point, they’ve done our way of life far better than us. They’re better educated. They took it seriously before it even hit. They have a better health system. They have from all appearances better leadership. They have better technology. They don’t have our diversity.

I mean African Americans represent 13% of our population and 27% of deaths. Hispanic population of California is 39% and I think have 57% of the cases or deaths. We have segments of our country who you can’t get on same page.

Just a much easier task and they’re simply far bette organized. They’re also way fitter. What percentage of South Korea is overweight? Can’t be high. They just kick our ass at something like this in every way, and have a much easier task to start. They’ve been exposed to China shit. They have masks on before it hits and take it seriously.

We have a system for child abductions in the US. Everyone’s cell goes off when a kid is abducted. Called an Amber alert. License plate and car description.

When they got a positive, from what I recall, something similar to that went out to everyone in a geographic area.

[Dan Druff]

Oh, I meant to post this on Saturday. I mentioned it on radio.

On Friday, we took a day trip to Ojai, which is a hilly/mountainous area between Los Angeles and Santa Barbara. Lots of hippies live there, but it's also a popular hangout spot for young people from western Ventura County.

While I tried to stay away from what appeared to be popular trails, we still encountered a number of these young people. We kept our distance from them as much as possible as they passed by. I will say that they were NOT socially distancing. They were piling into cars, camping together, hanging out in large groups and drinking beer, etc. Looked like any other Friday night in the Ojai mountains in a normal year.

At first I got irritated with their recklessness. Then I realized something: They're probably doing the right thing.

Young people are being lied to. They're not in danger. This won't harm them -- aside from the rare few who have preexisting disease or get really unlucky. They probably don't know a single person their own age who had major symptoms from COVID-19. I'm guessing everyone they know either hasn't had it, was asymptomatic, or had mild flu-like symptoms. It's likely that nobody in their entire peer group had a tough bout with the virus.

They realize that they're being bullshitted about it's potential harm to them, and they're tired of it. Sorta old people like me have to be careful, and actual old people like my parents have to be really careful, but these kids don't. They know it. They're tired of being cooped up. If I were 19, I'd feel the same way, especially if I didn't live with anyone much older than me.

[Dan Druff]

I should have gone a month ago, though.

A highly unusual 7.24 inches of rain fell in Rose Valley near Ojai in a few days in early April, which is typically a fairly dry month in Southern CA.

A lot of temporary waterfalls sprung up at the time.

[BCR]

Oh, I meant to post this on Saturday. I mentioned it on radio.

On Friday, we took a day trip to Ojai, which is a hilly/mountainous area between Los Angeles and Santa Barbara. Lots of hippies live there, but it's also a popular hangout spot for young people from western Ventura County.

While I tried to stay away from what appeared to be popular trails, we still encountered a number of these young people. We kept our distance from them as much as possible as they passed by. I will say that they were NOT socially distancing. They were piling into cars, camping together, hanging out in large groups and drinking beer, etc. Looked like any other Friday night in the Ojai mountains in a normal year.

At first I got irritated with their recklessness. Then I realized something: They're probably doing the right thing.

Young people are being lied to. They're not in danger. This won't harm them -- aside from the rare few who have preexisting disease or get really unlucky. They probably don't know a single person their own age who had major symptoms from COVID-19. I'm guessing everyone they know either hasn't had it, was asymptomatic, or had mild flu-like symptoms. It's likely that nobody in their entire peer group had a tough bout with the virus.

They realize that they're being bullshitted about it's potential harm to them, and they're tired of it. Sorta old people like me have to be careful, and actual old people like my parents have to be really careful, but these kids don't. They know it. They're tired of being cooped up. If I were 19, I'd feel the same way, especially if I didn't live with anyone much older than me.

Yeah, I would have been at a house party every night at 22 through the entire thing. I would have avoided my grandparents, but not even my parents as they were under 45 when I was 22. I have no issue with them doing whatever they want amongst themselves. Especially outside. I wish they’d wear masks though in certain public places.

They’ll still be standing next to our parents eventually. This thing is so small that one billion of this thing can fit on the head of a pin. 20-40 nano, whatever that means. Very airborne.

In bars or outside or even restaurants, anyone going assumes the risk. At 22 I would have wore a mask in places that everyone has to go. Grocery stores. Gas stations. Just the very essential places. Otherwise go have fun pretty much anywhere else.

[TheXFactor]

I think the testing is getting better, regarding false positives.

The antibody test is now 98% accurate.
But just because you test positive doesn't mean much.

It only means that you were exposed to the virus at some point.

They can't keep people on lockdown forever unless you live in California.

[JimmyG_415]

The strategy to do nothing & have Fox "news" talk you into thinking losing 1000's of Americans a day is a good thing?
we used to be the word leader on stuff like this, he says we still are, but why would any country call Trump, when he said is the back up even to his own states?
(not to mention we have worst outbreak of any country.).........If it was a success story, they wouldn't be blaming everyone.

1003 deaths today. The Trump strategy is working, the curve if flattening!

& GTFO that Trump isn't obese. Maybe not 'morbidly', but he lied about his height that one year just to avoid the fact that he is clinically obese.
And if Trump wasn't morbidly obese, Dwia would've notice he was being trolled w/that TDS meme earlier.

What a great job he is doing compared to So Korea.

Embedded Tweet

https://twitter.com/twt/status/1262731060233805824

As far as Pelosi's claim of Trump being morbidly obese, yeah he is overweight but nobody would ever classify him as morbidly obese, that would be Stacey Abrams levels. Funny that Skeletor Pelosi making fun of people's looks after countless plastic surgeries. I am surprised her face has not simply fallen off in the shower.

[dwai]

The strategy to do nothing & have Fox "news" talk you into thinking losing 1000's of Americans a day is a good thing?
we used to be the word leader on stuff like this, he says we still are, but why would any country call Trump, when he said is the back up even to his own states?
(not to mention we have worst outbreak of any country.).........If it was a success story, they wouldn't be blaming everyone.


& GTFO that Trump isn't obese. Maybe not 'morbidly', but he lied about his height that one year just to avoid the fact that he is clinically obese.
And if Trump wasn't morbidly obese, Dwia would've notice he was being trolled w/that TDS meme earlier.

What a great job he is doing compared to So Korea.

Embedded Tweet

https://twitter.com/twt/status/1262731060233805824

As far as Pelosi's claim of Trump being morbidly obese, yeah he is overweight but nobody would ever classify him as morbidly obese, that would be Stacey Abrams levels. Funny that Skeletor Pelosi making fun of people's looks after countless plastic surgeries. I am surprised her face has not simply fallen off in the shower.

[tgull]

The strategy to do nothing & have Fox "news" talk you into thinking losing 1000's of Americans a day is a good thing?
we used to be the word leader on stuff like this, he says we still are, but why would any country call Trump, when he said is the back up even to his own states?
(not to mention we have worst outbreak of any country.).........If it was a success story, they wouldn't be blaming everyone.


& GTFO that Trump isn't obese. Maybe not 'morbidly', but he lied about his height that one year just to avoid the fact that he is clinically obese.
And if Trump wasn't morbidly obese, Dwia would've notice he was being trolled w/that TDS meme earlier.

What a great job he is doing compared to So Korea.

Embedded Tweet

https://twitter.com/twt/status/1262731060233805824

How many obese people are in South Korea?
How many minorities are in South Korea?
How many people around the world vacation in South Korea?
What is the population of South Korea?
How many unique states are in South Korea?
Who protects South Korea from North Korea?
Which country is the sole existence of their founding and current existence?

Comparing little South Korea to the US is just a ridiculous premise, they have a monolithic population deep rooted in custom and parental hierarchy. They are an orderly and disciplined society, the US is free wheeling which is why the US is the innovators of the planet. Do you know why the Waltons and the Brady Bunch have never re-surfaced as a TV show? Because nobody would fucking watch it, it's not our society now.

Just another libtard who cannot get over the fact Donald Trump won.

[dwai]

How many obese people are in South Korea?
How many minorities are in South Korea?
How many people around the world vacation in South Korea?
What is the population of South Korea?
How many unique states are in South Korea?
Who protects South Korea from North Korea?
Which country is the sole existence of their founding and current existence?

Comparing little South Korea to the US is just a ridiculous premise, they have a monolithic population deep rooted in custom and parental hierarchy. They are an orderly and disciplined society, the US is free wheeling which is why the US is the innovators of the planet. Do you know why the Waltons and the Brady Bunch have never re-surfaced as a TV show? Because nobody would fucking watch it, it's not our society now.

Just another libtard who cannot get over the fact Donald Trump won.

It's true, Jimmyg went into full meltdown mode immediately when Hillary lost and hasn't regained control of his life in the following almost 4 years, It's quite sad to think this man might actually have kids he's supposed to take care of and a wife. Imagine how they feel when he spends every waking moment researching the population of small countries trying to compare them to the United States. Very deranged activity from an alleged "man". Pure Trump derangement syndrome in its most raw form.

[duped_samaritan]

oh wow haha he really is taking hydroxychloroquine


holy shit my eyes are watering reading about it. I thought you guys were fucking around


that is some of the funniest shit ive heard in a while.


maybe he is worried about malaria?

He said he's taking it.

[nightmarefish]

Heard pod regarding testing.

They looked at chance of getting a false negative test.

First day after infection, the false negative rate is 100%. It drops from day 2-4 from 90s to 68% chance you’ll still get negative test on day 4. On day 5, which is the average day first symptoms occur, you still have 38% chance of a false negative.

From day 6-8 after infected, you bottom out at 20% of false negative test on day 8 after infection. So three days after symptoms start.

After that, false negatives go back up as your immunity system kicks in. That seems problematic as most people report day 7 or 8 after symptoms start as when it starts to get scary or more severe.

By that point the false negative rate is already rising again if you present to ER. No exact percentages were given, but they start rising from 20% false negative on the third day after symptoms start, so by a week after first symptoms, with your immune system fighting it, there is probably a decently higher than 20% chance of greater false negatives 3-5 days after the optimal third day.

That’s confusing but third day after symptoms is best time to get test. Early worthless. After sick a week, probably at least a third chance you’ll get a false negative. I’ve known two people who tested negative after being sure they had it and doctors convinced. 72 year old woman. 50ish guy. Both with that extreme exhaustion and short of breath. Neither got tested until probably a week after start of symptoms. I would guess this is the norm as most people aren’t going to seek test with mild symptoms. But if you’re at all high risk or want to know, go get a test on third day after first symptom. Loss of taste or whatever. That’s your best bet.

So basically the takeaway is the testing sucks pretty hard. You’re basically still at almost 70% the day before symptoms start and almost 40% to get a false negative day symptoms start. So if you get sick, your best chance at a diagnosis is about 3 days after you get sick, in which case you have an 80% chance to be correctly diagnosed. After that it gets worse again. That seems like one shit test.

Anyway, thought I’d pass it along in case anyone gets exposed to someone and thinks they’ll get ahead of the illness and get tested. Pretty worthless to do so. I hadn’t heard or read that information anywhere.

It also shows why this fucker is so contagious as they also found virus shedding is most prevalent right before symptoms start, yet there would be a damn near 70% chance you’d still get a false negative at that point where you’re most contagious.

You always make a lot of sense and bring great info. The asymmetric aspect of the virus coupled with various factors of the US culture was a ticking time bomb. Throw that in with the inconsistency of the accuracy of testing and shit tons of people dying was inevitable in the US. The whole talking point that if we had done more testing in February it would have saved most of the lost lives is just wrong. I hate Trump as much as the next guy but there isn’t much if any blood on his hands here. Sure he’s said lots of dumb shit but does that translate into extra deaths? My opinion is no.

High volume of average flights from China to US + US culture + US diverse population + US unhealthy population + East coast density (and reliance on subway system), + 80% asymptomatic = high body bag count.

But but early testing, GTFO.

[nightmarefish]

This is an encouraging article. Says people that get Covid for a second time aren’t contiguous.

https://www.dailywire.com/news/s-kor...ansmit-disease

[big dick]

Judge allows fraud suit against Trump, family and company to proceed

A federal judge on Monday allowed a federal lawsuit accusing President Donald Trump, his three eldest children and his company of collaborating with a fraudulent marketing scheme to prey on investors to proceed.

The lawsuit, originally filed in October 2018 and amended a few months later, alleges that in exchange for "secret" payments, Trump and three of his adult children used his former reality TV show "The Celebrity Apprentice" and other promotional events as vehicles to boost ACN Opportunity, a telecommunications marketing company linked to a nonprofit that used Trump's brand to appeal to teens.
The lawsuit also accuses the Trumps of having profited off the poor and vulnerable, as people looking "to enrich themselves by systematically defrauding economically marginalized people looking to invest in their educations, start their own small business, and pursue the American dream."

https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/19/polit...any/index.html

[dwai]

Judge allows fraud suit against Trump, family and company to proceed

A federal judge on Monday allowed a federal lawsuit accusing President Donald Trump, his three eldest children and his company of collaborating with a fraudulent marketing scheme to prey on investors to proceed.

The lawsuit, originally filed in October 2018 and amended a few months later, alleges that in exchange for "secret" payments, Trump and three of his adult children used his former reality TV show "The Celebrity Apprentice" and other promotional events as vehicles to boost ACN Opportunity, a telecommunications marketing company linked to a nonprofit that used Trump's brand to appeal to teens.
The lawsuit also accuses the Trumps of having profited off the poor and vulnerable, as people looking "to enrich themselves by systematically defrauding economically marginalized people looking to invest in their educations, start their own small business, and pursue the American dream."

https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/19/polit...any/index.html

Trump gets sued all the time you fucking mong

[big dick]

Trump calls US coronavirus numbers a 'badge of honor'

[Walter Sobchak]

Judge allows fraud suit against Trump, family and company to proceed

A federal judge on Monday allowed a federal lawsuit accusing President Donald Trump, his three eldest children and his company of collaborating with a fraudulent marketing scheme to prey on investors to proceed.

The lawsuit, originally filed in October 2018 and amended a few months later, alleges that in exchange for "secret" payments, Trump and three of his adult children used his former reality TV show "The Celebrity Apprentice" and other promotional events as vehicles to boost ACN Opportunity, a telecommunications marketing company linked to a nonprofit that used Trump's brand to appeal to teens.
The lawsuit also accuses the Trumps of having profited off the poor and vulnerable, as people looking "to enrich themselves by systematically defrauding economically marginalized people looking to invest in their educations, start their own small business, and pursue the American dream."

https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/19/polit...any/index.html

Trump gets sued all the time you fucking mong

I don't get sued all the time. You know why? Because I don't scam people.