*** Official Flying Stupidity Wagering thread ***

[Sanlmar]

Am I going to be wrong about NFL? Here’s the schedule. We will see

Someone told me South Point has a mobile sports book in the parking lot. I asked for what? It was a she so was left hanging.

[Daly]

Am I going to be wrong about NFL? Here’s the schedule. We will see

Someone told me South Point has a mobile sports book in the parking lot. I asked for what? It was a she so was left hanging.

NFL makes 80% of its money from TV 20% from the stadium

College makes 80% from the stadium 20% from TV

That’s why we are going to have NFL on TV with no fans and college is going to say “we don’t want to risk it for the children”. College can’t make enough money to cover the expense of all the other sports

[Sanlmar]

Am I going to be wrong about NFL? Here’s the schedule. We will see

Someone told me South Point has a mobile sports book in the parking lot. I asked for what? It was a she so was left hanging.

NFL makes 80% of its money from TV 20% from the stadium

College makes 80% from the stadium 20% from TV

That’s why we are going to have NFL on TV with no fans and college is going to say “we don’t want to risk it for the children”. College can’t make enough money to cover the expense of all the other sports

Bill Simmons podcast laid it all out as you have. It was pretty compelling on the heels of the monster numbers generated during the Draft Broadcast.

This will probably be my first year sitting out the futures though.

[ErickAA]

Just listened to the most recent Mike Lombardi pod.

He was bullish on the Ravens Over (9.5 I think) and Bears Under (8 I think).

[gut]

Just listened to the most recent Mike Lombardi pod.

He was bullish on the Ravens Over (9.5 I think) and Bears Under (8 I think).

I'm 50/50 on whether you typo'd/misremembered the ravens total (its 11.5) or whether that dolt Lombardi actually misread it himself and raved about how great a deal 9.5 is. BLUE-CHIPPER! I've read some good things about him from writers I respect, but listening to him is cringe worthy 75% of the time.

[gut]

I really like Pats u9 right now but waiting on the final important piece of QB musical chairs to settle before firing on it.

[Sanlmar]

Just listened to the most recent Mike Lombardi pod.

He was bullish on the Ravens Over (9.5 I think) and Bears Under (8 I think).

I'm 50/50 on whether you typo'd/misremembered the ravens total (its 11.5) or whether that dolt Lombardi actually misread it himself and raved about how great a deal 9.5 is. BLUE-CHIPPER! I've read some good things about him from writers I respect, but listening to him is cringe worthy 75% of the time.

You are the first to address the Lombardi issue and I think you’ve nailed it.

I know he has value but I think he is on air too many hours of the week in too many venues. My take on Mike is he is just running his mouth to earn a living and you assigning 75% cringe is the right number.

I usually just shut him off. It’s proven not to be worth the investment of my time.

[Crowe Diddly]

every once in a while, if I kinda like a sports podcast, I'll download some old show and give it a listen. I don;t care if someone is wrong a lot, just as long as their reasoning is sound, they make good arguments, etc.

DL any old Lombardi show and he's almost embarrassing with his takes. He's half a mouthpiece for his connections, half otherwise ludicrous opinions on who's good or what works, with no real substance behind it. He can be an entertaining listen, I grant you, but he's worthless otherwise. IMO, obv.

[Daly]

Been fucking around with horses the past few weeks. I don’t know a lot but I know enough that the rainbow 6 at gulfstream is fucking imposible.

$8M pool three weeks ago though - can’t not take a stab.

[ErickAA]

I misremembered. I rechecked the pod and Lombardi was bullish on O11.5 for Ravens.

[gut]

every once in a while, if I kinda like a sports podcast, I'll download some old show and give it a listen. I don;t care if someone is wrong a lot, just as long as their reasoning is sound, they make good arguments, etc.

DL any old Lombardi show and he's almost embarrassing with his takes. He's half a mouthpiece for his connections, half otherwise ludicrous opinions on who's good or what works, with no real substance behind it. He can be an entertaining listen, I grant you, but he's worthless otherwise. IMO, obv.

I knew of him as being a name in FO's in the NFL for a bit, but then...I think it was right after he was fired from the Browns, he was a regular on Simmons pod the next season and holy shit was he bad. Constantly messing up players names, and not like mispronouncing, but literally making up first names that were wrong. I mean, the guy had been a GM (for the Browns, but still) 12 months earlier! I started skipping those pods. Cousin Sal now is 10x better at NFL commentary than Lombardi was then.

The average show then was:
1. Lombardi butchers some stars name while saying whether they are a blue or red chip player
2. Any sort of football analysis began with "When i was in NE, Bill would....."
3. Crazy Al Davis story (only part worth listening to)

[ErickAA]

Logged into my sportsbetting account for first time in a couple months

Texans +10 opening day game. Too many points, especially considering if the game goes as planned stadium likely to be empty or neutral site. (This was a Lombardi play FWIW, but I agree)

Also, anyone else really like Bears U8.5 -155? A lot of juice, I would probably rather it went down to 8, but if you look at that schedule a lot of tough games. Packers and Vikings 2x, NFC South and AFC South.

[go_buccos]

Logged into my sportsbetting account for first time in a couple months

Texans +10 opening day game. Too many points, especially considering if the game goes as planned stadium likely to be empty or neutral site.

Also, anyone else really like Bears U8.5 -155? A lot of juice, I would probably rather it went down to 8, but if you look at that schedule a lot of tough games. Packers and Vikings 2x, NFC South and AFC South.

Agree with this, but make sure you carefully read the fine print regarding how your particular book handles wagers on games played either not on the original date or at the original venue.

[Tellafriend]

Pittsburgh over 9 games —115. Seems too good?

[ErickAA]

Logged into my sportsbetting account for first time in a couple months

Texans +10 opening day game. Too many points, especially considering if the game goes as planned stadium likely to be empty or neutral site.

Also, anyone else really like Bears U8.5 -155? A lot of juice, I would probably rather it went down to 8, but if you look at that schedule a lot of tough games. Packers and Vikings 2x, NFC South and AFC South.

Agree with this, but make sure you carefully read the fine print regarding how your particular book handles wagers on games played either not on the original date or at the original venue.

Well, I am ok with +10 even if it was a normal opening night game in front of a packed home crowd. So either I have a bet under some terms which I am ok with, or it is cancelled. No biggie.

(Of course I had a similar bet in the playoff game and Houston was up 21-0 and didn't even come close to covering, so there is that)

[Daly]

Ive seen a lot of things in the way of UFC and Boxing judges in my life. Tonight I saw a first.

A split decision 30-27, 27-30, 29-28

How the fuck is that even posible?

[BCR]

Ive seen a lot of things in the way of UFC and Boxing judges in my life. Tonight I saw a first.

A split decision 30-27, 27-30, 29-28

How the fuck is that even posible?

You know how it’s possible. The first real wagering event in months. Can you imagine the action? Can you imagine all the incentive to fix an event?

I almost made a post yesterday about point shaving and refs and the NBA when I saw the MGM’s proposal to leave 4 properties completely closed, fully staffed, all eateries open, just for the players, staff, family, coaches and press covering the event. You enter and you can’t leave until the NBA finals are over. You leave, you can’t return. Everyone lives there for months. Staff can’t leave. Live there for the entirety. All table games open.

You have aging players seeing their careers end with this virus. You have guys getting their big payday pushed back indefinitely. Refs out of work and stuck in a casino and possibly get stuck and they can’t even leave.

CJ McCollum estimating 150 out of 450 players live paycheck to paycheck. Salary cap hit being talked about in 40% haircut range.

All with no gambling action anywhere. No casinos open. No sports to wager on. Normally the idea of a player being corruptible is crazy given the current contracts, but now? How about a ref? The $ you could pay to assure an outcome feels infinite.

It feels like any sport that reopens, never has there been a greater chance to corrupt someone.

You’re talking about playing games where if a few people test positive, they’ll shut it all back down anyway. I can’t imagine the temptation and how profitable fixing an event would be, and a better time where guys might be vulnerable to the payouts because of how high they could be. Anything. Tennis match if they start playing?

Just any event that is going on with no other action in the world. The implications feel staggering. Forget daily Covid tests. I think you’d need daily FBI level lie detector tests for any ref in anything. Anyone who could influence outcome. I’ve seen many articles about the resurgence of organized crime with this virus. We might get a look at it.

[Walter Sobchak]

Logged into my sportsbetting account for first time in a couple months

Texans +10 opening day game. Too many points, especially considering if the game goes as planned stadium likely to be empty or neutral site. (This was a Lombardi play FWIW, but I agree)

Also, anyone else really like Bears U8.5 -155? A lot of juice, I would probably rather it went down to 8, but if you look at that schedule a lot of tough games. Packers and Vikings 2x, NFC South and AFC South.

If you're betting the Under you should hope the number goes up.

[GambleBotsChafedPenis]

Logged into my sportsbetting account for first time in a couple months

Texans +10 opening day game. Too many points, especially considering if the game goes as planned stadium likely to be empty or neutral site. (This was a Lombardi play FWIW, but I agree)

Also, anyone else really like Bears U8.5 -155? A lot of juice, I would probably rather it went down to 8, but if you look at that schedule a lot of tough games. Packers and Vikings 2x, NFC South and AFC South.

If you're betting the Under you should hope the number goes up.

think he's looking for reduced juice on the 8 line...

so if he's paying -155 for U8.5 he's willing to take U8 and a push if they go 8-8 at probably something like -110 or whatever the line would be if they moved the number to 8...

[Walter Sobchak]

If you're betting the Under you should hope the number goes up.

think he's looking for reduced juice on the 8 line...

so if he's paying -155 for U8.5 he's willing to take U8 and a push if they go 8-8 at probably something like -110 or whatever the line would be if they moved the number to 8...

Ah yes, got it.

Donnie, I'm out of my element.