you're repeating yourself a lot.Originally Posted by tgull
you're repeating yourself a lot.
Correct. It's going to get worse so best put me on ignore because I know what I do could affect two or three votes, and we saw in Florida 2000 that can make all the difference in the world.you're repeating yourself a lot.
Hilldawg was up by an average of nearly 8 points as late as mid October. At first I thought Biden had a shot, now it's looking like Trump -130 is a gift. Honestly, the best thing the Dems can do is replace him. Once he's forced out of the basement to actually face Trump and all of the shadow money starts pouring in to spread the "creepy Joe" angle through social media, he's likely going to lose worse than she did.
There is a basic smell test with candidates, and somehow the left has nominated a bumbling, senile dumbass, pushing 80 that dozens of clips and pictures exist of him being creepy with/groping not just women but multiple children. As much as most reading this have known these things, the typical likely voter isn't anywhere nearly as aware of it. His actual politics don't matter, and once these issues are hammered home over the summer and into the fall, many of the people who detest Trump will simply refrain from voting, even more so than they did for Hillary. This Tara Reade situation is building a foundation for sensible independents to vote for neither.
But once again I expect the same libtards as in 2016 on this board to dismiss these issues, and instead pretend that Biden is going to dunk on Trump until proven wrong again. His best shot of course is for a worst case scenario with the coronavirus situation.
Last edited by VaughnP; 05-09-2020 at 05:44 AM.
literally no one here thinks biden is a slam dunk over trump. the guy can't speak.
but what's the worst case scenario with coronavirus? if you think an economy that's worse than the great depression helps biden, expect biden to win, cause that's where we're headed.
come november, our unemployment rates will be unimaginably bad.
businesses will realize they didn't need half of the employees they had. other businesses are realizing they could work effectively without office space. that means certain sectors will never fully come back
i truly hope i'm wrong or every one of us is fucked
weirdly, you almost have to hope trump wins cause the alternative probably means our economy is so horrific that all of our lives will be worse (either through loss of income or retirement savings).
things are so bad that i'm watching fox news to cheer me up
i agree with a lot of this so clearly we're wrong and bidens going to sweep.
"Birds born in a cage think flying is an illness." - Alejandro Jodorowsky
"America is not so much a nightmare as a non-dream. The American non-dream is precisely a move to wipe the dream out of existence. The dream is a spontaneous happening and therefore dangerous to a control system set up by the non-dreamers." -- William S. Burroughs
Trump has his base regardless, and most in the middle are intelligent enough to realize that he's not responsible for the effects the pandemic are having on the economy. However, to me worst case scenario is well over 250k deaths by the fall - that and the likely coming depression paint a much uglier picture when combined and he is the first fall guy. It probably gets him beat.literally no one here thinks biden is a slam dunk over trump. the guy can't speak.
but what's the worst case scenario with coronavirus? if you think an economy that's worse than the great depression helps biden, expect biden to win, cause that's where we're headed.
come november, our unemployment rates will be unimaginably bad.
businesses will realize they didn't need half of the employees they had. other businesses are realizing they could work effectively without office space. that means certain sectors will never fully come back
i truly hope i'm wrong or every one of us is fucked
There are all kinds of crazy variables at play here. The one that might cripple Biden is that even though he has black voter support, if there isn't a hard push for voting by mail I don't see the likely black voter type standing in line if the virus is still a threat in November. Sensible black folks are way more risk adverse than other races.
will older republicans stand in line in florida?Trump has his base regardless, and most in the middle are intelligent enough to realize that he's not responsible for the effects the pandemic are having on the economy. However, to me worst case scenario is well over 250k deaths by the fall - that and the likely coming depression paint a much uglier picture when combined and he is the first fall guy. It probably gets him beat.
There are all kinds of crazy variables at play here. The one that might cripple Biden is that even though he has black voter support, if there isn't a hard push for voting by mail I don't see the likely black voter type standing in line if the virus is still a threat in November. Sensible black folks are way more risk adverse than other races.
i don't even think 250,000 deaths would matter to most people btw. it's just the economy
Correct. In 2004 Iraq was spiraling out of control and Bush got reelected, because the economy was good and home prices were high. People vote with their wallet. If the economy is on the upswing in October nobody is going to give a shit about the nursing home carnage or some fat people stroking out due to the virus. Now, if the economy is cratering in late October, then Abe Lincoln would not even win in 2020. American's are flat out greedy and want nice shit, plain and simple. Any impediment the President get's clipped, no better example than George HW Bush. He had a 90% approval rating in 1991 and lost in 1992 to an obscure Arkansas governor because the US hit the bottom of a recession at the exact wrong time.
Normally I would agree, but think of how effective a marketing/advertising strategy of "blood on his hands" etc. is/will be? If the deaths continue to pile up and the "hot spots" become more widespread, eventually almost all of us will know someone who has died from the virus. The average person knows roughly 600 people. If the deaths eclipse 500k, which sadly seems possible much sooner than we're being lead to believe, we all likely will.
This is all of course based off of my own opinions, but basic observation shows that pretty much the only thing that has effectively stuck to Trump is the loss of life blame for mishandling this situation. Knowing someone that has died from it will put things into perspective for even the most loyal Trump zealot. This is more of a "wartime" like situation than any in my lifetime, and whether anyone wants to give him credit or not, the pre-virus economic boom is actually a selling point to post-virus recovery. The last few clips I've seen of Trump even have him using this as a talking point.
Last edited by VaughnP; 05-08-2020 at 09:01 AM.
You guys are applying typical expected scenarios to a completely unprecedented situation.
If you are suggesting the economy is not going to drive the outcome of the election, it really would be the first time in history. The only exception is the end of FDR's first term, but he got a pass since he inherited everything from Hoover. FTR, nobody really knows anyone that is healthy that died of the virus. MAYBE someone had had a grandparent at the age of 87 who perished, but I think most will surmise they would have died from something else anyway. I just don't see anyone except the extreme left blaming Trump for the virus, and that is easy to squash since Biden, Pelosi and De-Blassio dismissed the virus in February, on record. The only guy that really stood up and shouted was Tom Cotton in January, and he was branded a racist by MSNBC, he will likely be the top Presidential candidate in 2024.Normally I would agree, but think of how effective a marketing/advertising strategy of "blood on his hands" etc. is/will be? If the deaths continue to pile up and the "hot spots" become more widespread, eventually almost all of us will know someone who has died from the virus. The average person knows roughly 600 people. If the deaths eclipse 500k, which sadly seems possible much sooner than we're being lead to believe, we all will likely know at least one person that has died from the virus.
This is all of course based off of my own opinions, but basic observation shows that pretty much the only thing that has effectively stuck to Trump is the loss of life blame for mishandling this situation. Knowing someone that has died from it will put things into perspective for even the most loyal Trump zealot. This is more of a "wartime" like situation than any in my lifetime, and whether anyone wants to give him credit or not, the pre-virus economic boom is actually a selling point to post-virus recovery. The last few clips I've seen of Trump even have him using this as a talking point.
Only weak kneed are hyperventilating. NYC has clamed dramatically, the rest of the nation will follow in June and July. Look at the stock market, it's down only 20% from it's all time highs. For whatever reason you have a sense of panic, but the big money is pretty calm in all this, they are forecasting airplanes and hotels will be full this time next year. Critically old and morbidly obese should not be travelling anyway, that who this affects by and large.
i just don’t think 250,000 deaths is enough to register. too many people still won’t personally know anyone that dies. at about a million deaths, those ads showing that trump thought the virus would miss us might start to make people think he’s the wrong guy for the job
hey I’ve admitted i have zero clue how this is going to play out. i don’t even have a side I’m leaning to.
also bottomset convinced me to lose $325 on Roy Moore a few years ago, which he still hasn’t apologized for, so my predictions are awful
The hosts of The Hill’s “Rising” show are making some coge hay out of this latest revelation.
This was from Reade's ex in 1996 when he filed his response to the restraining order against him. This is an odd filing in itself. Why tell this story in response to a restraining order filed against you?
Note that this says "sexual harassment in Joe Biden's office", and not by Joe Biden, which could be a very notable difference.
Regardless, between the mom's phone call to CNN, this story Tara told to her ex in the mid-90s, and the neighbor who remembers hearing a story in 1995 about Biden harassing her, Reade at least has been saying that Joe Biden sexually harassed her for the past 27 years. Maybe she made it up, maybe she's exaggerating, maybe she's only recently exaggerating for attention, and maybe it's all true. But this isn't something she just invented in 2020.
More on this: https://www.sanluisobispo.com/news/p...242527331.html
Oh, and then there's this weirdness regarding Biden's request to the Senate to disclose information about any records of this: https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/...reject-request
The Senate rejected this request, claiming they have "no discretion to disclose such information". Huh?? So this obviously makes it look suspicious that Biden perhaps already knew this, and went through the motions requesting the information, only to feign surprise when the request was rejected.
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Even if the whole thing is true Trump is still 100x the predator that Biden is.
Trump also has worse dementia.
Finally, you're an idiot. Go put your face in a toilet.
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The economy will drive the outcome but the economy sucks right now and it will suck in the fall. Not Trump's fault, just the truth.If you are suggesting the economy is not going to drive the outcome of the election, it really would be the first time in history. The only exception is the end of FDR's first term, but he got a pass since he inherited everything from Hoover. FTR, nobody really knows anyone that is healthy that died of the virus. MAYBE someone had had a grandparent at the age of 87 who perished, but I think most will surmise they would have died from something else anyway. I just don't see anyone except the extreme left blaming Trump for the virus, and that is easy to squash since Biden, Pelosi and De-Blassio dismissed the virus in February, on record. The only guy that really stood up and shouted was Tom Cotton in January, and he was branded a racist by MSNBC, he will likely be the top Presidential candidate in 2024.
The markets might be ok but the markets are not the same as the actual economy, and everyday people who vote with their wallets will still be suffering.
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PRESIDENT JOSEPH R. BIDEN JR., THE GREAT AND POWERFUL
Good people of PFA,
Let us be ever grateful that America has as its president the omniscient Donald J. Trump given how so very many things nobody knew!!!
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