Corona will go down as the single largest media driven circus of all time.

[BCR]

I just linked a guy who has been analyzing the virus since the start in other thread. He said it’s hard to know even for him without blood testing, but he thinks 2-3%, so like 6.6 million to 9.9 million was his best guess given all the work he’s done and some assumption

Something I read the other day from Iceland who have tested a larger percentage of the population then any other country.

They did random tests and figured 50% of all cases are asymptomatic.

Yeah, that was a day ago, so he thinks we are basically catching 1 of 20 at this point. Half being asymptomatic would make sense. That leaves a whole lot being anywhere from mild up to serious. I saw in my demographic 45-54, if you’re admitted, you are 10% to die at that point. Didn’t have number on what percentage of positives lead to hospitalization in same group. That would be more useful. Considering half of vent cases make it, and would be represented in the 90%, but have a lot of lung scarring and other bad effects, not something you want to get admitted over.

[Dan Druff]

Something I read the other day from Iceland who have tested a larger percentage of the population then any other country.

They did random tests and figured 50% of all cases are asymptomatic.

Yeah, that was a day ago, so he thinks we are basically catching 1 of 20 at this point. Half being asymptomatic would make sense. That leaves a whole lot being anywhere from mild up to serious. I saw in my demographic 45-54, if you’re admitted, you are 10% to die at that point. Didn’t have number on what percentage of positives lead to hospitalization in same group. That would be more useful. Considering half of vent cases make it, and would be represented in the 90%, but have a lot of lung scarring and other bad effects, not something you want to get admitted over.

Three best things that have happened to me in past 15 years:

- My son being born in 2010

- Having my severe anxiety and depression start to rapidly improve in Oct 2018

- Winning a wsop bracelet in 2005

Finding out I had asymptomatic corona would be #4.

But I don't think I'm that lucky.

[ErickAA]

We knew 50% of cases were asymptomatic from the Diamond Princess cruise data in January. They had ~50% asymptomatic even in an elderly skewed cohort.

They are also probably going to resolve at ~2% death rate (there is still some patients who are listed as critical, whom prognosis is very poor) in this elderly cohort. So a younger cohort would fair better, although it appears you have to normalize for the risk factor of obesity (and its related comorbidities) in any given population.