So coronavirus is definitely going to kill a few of us.

[Dan Druff]

seems reeeeaaally unlikely Cali got a taste of the disease, that spreads like wildfire and overloads hospitals within months of initial infection, but suffered none of those effects, months ago. Corona doesn't do trial runs then retreat. If it was out of the bag in Cali before everywhere else, seems very likely we would not have to wonder about it months later.

More likely just a bunch of people who were kinda sick or had the flu and in hindsight remember it as black death, as memories are wont to do.

Anecdotal story here:

I have befriended various radio listeners over time. Some I've met in person, some I haven't.

One of these listeners, who is under 30, suffered from a really really really awful illness in early January. They were texting me daily about it at the time, and specifically kept complaining about the cough and how terrible it was. After they finally recovered, this person told me they felt at one point they were going to die.

At the time, I thought it was just a bad flu which had become pneumonia, and I told them so.

This was all before any of us had knowledge of COVID-19. I honestly believe it was in California in December and early January, but was dismissed as other things. Keep in mind that California has a big Chinese population (remember, 90% of Commerce dealers are mainland Chinese), so it would make sense that it showed up there first.

That's not to say that California already had a huge wave of COVID-19 illnesses and nobody knew. I believe the social distancing when it started ramping up, plus the lack of public transportation, were the biggest factors in keeping the numbers lower.

[Dan Druff]

splitthis has aways been obsessed with the obesity thing. While it's true that obesity hastens people's deaths, and has become an American health issue, I also think she believes this to an extreme.

You're saying that 6' men are supposed to be 178 pounds. Yeah right. Maybe at age 25. I doubt many guys on this forum who are 6' are anywhere near 178, unless they're lying about their height (and still probably not).

Believe it or not, being moderately overweight doesn't seem to be a major factor in COVID-19 deaths. If I'm wrong, show me the numbers saying otherwise. Many other health factors were identified (including high BP, which is almost entirely a product of heredity and age), but being overweight by itself wasn't one of them, as long as not to an extreme.

Would I rather I was lighter right now? Sure. Not a day goes by that I'm not frustrated with myself for allowing 75% of the 2018 involuntary weight loss come back. I basically threw away the only good part of that whole nightmarish situation.

I'm between 6'2" and 6'3". The involuntary weight loss of 2018 took me down from 241 (all time high) to 209. Now I'm around 232. That doesn't worry me in the short term. My moderately high baseline blood pressure worries me (150/90), my age somewhat worries me, but the weight doesn't. Not from a COVID-19 standpoint.

I can't stand gyms. I don't like exercising at home, either. I do like hiking. I will do more of that when this is over. Honestly I just need to eat less, which as you've seen on Live at the Bike, isn't an easy thing for me. Last time I played at Commerce, the guy next to me looked at the food wheeled to me and asked, "Wait, is a second person coming, or are you eating all of that yourself?" I told him, "I could eat twice as much as this if I wanted to", and wasn't kidding. Hopefully he's still alive and didn't die of the corona AIDS. Undoubtedly it took some lives of Commerce players. At least 3 players died from the much smaller Hawaiian Gardens room.

[abrown83]

Interesting, literally the first thing I started doing was cutting weight and lung exercises when this shit showed up. Went back to the office yesterday for the first time in almost four weeks and someone mentioned I looked slimmer. Stepped on the scale was down to 229 from 242 since March 13th when I started paying attention.

It’s actually one of the benefits of being home is I am eating healthier. I will probably slim all the way down to 205-215 (would get me into 32-34 pants at 6’1”).

My mindset is adapt or die. Guessing a lot of people will just passively pick death.

Yesss!!!!! Unfortunately people in the minority like you are doing things to positively impact your health, others are sitting home eating crap food and gaining weight. 90% of people in hospital with corona have underlying conditions and a majority of them are related to obesity. Yes, a few don’t but I bet a good percentage of the outliers have an undiagnosed underlying condition.

Never more than ever before, change or die. It was always like that really, but death related to obesity was always something that would happen further down the road, now it’s right in your face!

For those wanting to change but don’t know how, start by clearing your home of all junk and processed food. Buy lean meats, lots of fruit and veggies, READ LABELS. Eat clean and simple and you see the pounds fly off. If you have a lot of pain in your joints from being too fat start with low impact exercises, there are many online for now and as the weight comes off increase your activity.

Here are the facts

Women normal body weight is 100 lbs for 5’ and add 5 lbs for every inch above that.

Men 106 for 5’ and add 6 pounds for every inch above that.

Now there is a plus and minus 10% for a normal range.

A 5’8” woman should weigh 145 plus or minus 14.5 pounds.

6’ man should weigh 178 plus or minus 18 pounds.

An easy way to figure out how many calories you should eat is to download a free tracking app like LOSE IT. It auto calculates how many calories you should eat a day to lose a pound or 2 a week, choose slow weight loss. This will help you be aware of what you are doing and be accountable.

It is no longer an option to live unhealthy and live.

The problem I have with this is I have extremely broad shoulders.

I was 205-210 from 16-25, at that weight I was a 32 waist you could see all my ribs and had definition in my abs.

I like the if 2x your pants size is less than your height, you should be good studies.

Now my wife has a much more natural slender build and your numbers seem much more aligned.

[Dan Druff]

Here is my guess of what I call "the 7 phases toward normalcy", with a guess regarding dates they occur:

Phase 1: Return to visiting with non-vulnerable friends and family - June 2020

Phase 2: Return to non-essential businesses, sporting events with no audience - July 2020

Phase 3: Return to restaurants and small gatherings - September 2020

Phase 4: Return to National Parks, hiking areas, and medium-sized (less than 250 people) gatherings - October 2020

Phase 5: Return to large gatherings (251-1000 people) - February 2021

Phase 6: Return to sporting events with an audience - April 2021

Phase 7: Return to huge events/gatherings (1001+) and cruise ships - June 2021

Not sure where casinos fit in here. They SHOULD be far down the list, but the state of Nevada might force it to happen earlier than it should.

I also think WSOP 2020 ain't happening at all.

[abrown83]

Here is my guess of what I call "the 7 phases toward normalcy", with a guess regarding dates they occur:

Phase 1: Return to visiting with non-vulnerable friends and family - June 2020

Phase 2: Return to non-essential businesses, sporting events with no audience - July 2020

Phase 3: Return to restaurants and small gatherings - September 2020

Phase 4: Return to National Parks, hiking areas, and medium-sized (less than 250 people) gatherings - October 2020

Phase 5: Return to large gatherings (251-1000 people) - February 2021

Phase 6: Return to sporting events with an audience - April 2021

Phase 7: Return to huge events/gatherings (1001+) and cruise ships - June 2021

Not sure where casinos fit in here. They SHOULD be far down the list, but the state of Nevada might force it to happen earlier than it should.

I also think WSOP 2020 ain't happening at all.

Your timeline is logical, people are idiots, July 1 shit will be on.

Next 2-3 weeks cases are going to drop like a rock.

[Dan Druff]

Here is my guess of what I call "the 7 phases toward normalcy", with a guess regarding dates they occur:

Phase 1: Return to visiting with non-vulnerable friends and family - June 2020

Phase 2: Return to non-essential businesses, sporting events with no audience - July 2020

Phase 3: Return to restaurants and small gatherings - September 2020

Phase 4: Return to National Parks, hiking areas, and medium-sized (less than 250 people) gatherings - October 2020

Phase 5: Return to large gatherings (251-1000 people) - February 2021

Phase 6: Return to sporting events with an audience - April 2021

Phase 7: Return to huge events/gatherings (1001+) and cruise ships - June 2021

Not sure where casinos fit in here. They SHOULD be far down the list, but the state of Nevada might force it to happen earlier than it should.

I also think WSOP 2020 ain't happening at all.

Your timeline is logical, people are idiots, July 1 shit will be on.

Next 2-3 weeks cases are going to drop like a rock.

I agree the cases will drop fast once the people who got it in March either die or get better. This will bring some optimism, but I don't think officials will be dumb enough to just let everyone run out and return to normal, or we'll have the same problem all over again.

There is going to be a slow, cautious return to normalcy, and we will only get full normalcy when a vaccine or very reliable treatment exists. Prior to that, there will still be all kinds of precautions in place even as we return to do things.

Once the antibody test is reliable and exists in mass quantities (I'm talking like a billion of them), they might set up facilities to get antibody cards which certify you were tested with antibodies, and thus can go about business as usual. However, I'm not even sure they will do this, as it will create chaos if people start swapping, stealing, or counterfeiting these cards, and it also might create an unfortunate haves/have nots situation, where those without the antibodies (but also without the virus) will feel discriminated against.

Imagine if Joe down the street can return to work, eat at restaurants, go hiking, attend concerts, and attend ball games, and you can't, just because you smartly avoided catching it. I don't see that happening.

[abrown83]

Your timeline is logical, people are idiots, July 1 shit will be on.

Next 2-3 weeks cases are going to drop like a rock.

I agree the cases will drop fast once the people who got it in March either die or get better. This will bring some optimism, but I don't think officials will be dumb enough to just let everyone run out and return to normal, or we'll have the same problem all over again.

There is going to be a slow, cautious return to normalcy, and we will only get full normalcy when a vaccine or very reliable treatment exists. Prior to that, there will still be all kinds of precautions in place even as we return to do things.

Once the antibody test is reliable and exists in mass quantities (I'm talking like a billion of them), they might set up facilities to get antibody cards which certify you were tested with antibodies, and thus can go about business as usual. However, I'm not even sure they will do this, as it will create chaos if people start swapping, stealing, or counterfeiting these cards, and it also might create an unfortunate haves/have nots situation, where those without the antibodies (but also without the virus) will feel discriminated against.

Imagine if Joe down the street can return to work, eat at restaurants, go hiking, attend concerts, and attend ball games, and you can't, just because you smartly avoided catching it. I don't see that happening.

Also we don’t know how long we will keep antibodies for this, many docs seem to think we could catch it again in 1-2 years.

What we need is this thing to mutate 3-4 times and become less dangerous (something interesting about cold viruses is their mutations become less deadly as the virus is trying to survive in its host).

[MumblesBadly]

Aren’t you forgetting that I’m still out on the road doing “essential service” in the transportation biz picking up and delivering loads? And I’m obese, have Type II diabetes, high blood pressure, and almost 60. And I just woke up feeling flushed with a slight buzz in my head, usually indicative for me of the onset of a fever. Seriously, get your money in quick before the line becomes untenably lopsided.

Take a couple days off and go see a doctor.Stop at hotel get some sleep and rest and get yourself looked at.

If money is the issue and the reason you continue to work even though you are not well then I will will send you enoug money to get you through a few days and you can get me back when you have it.

Thanks for the offer,. Looks like I’m still dodging coronavirus bullets out here. Turns out I was likely just a bit dehydrated. Once I slugged down some water, I felt fine.

[OSA]

Gyms and Personal Trainers are gonna kill it after this is over.

You ever taken a spin class? I’m serious. That dead. That room will be used for storage.

Just before COVID .. hot spin was becoming a thing. Very hot room. 30 bikes with spit and sweat spraying everywhere.


I can talk about all the other group classes.

Lol. Thats all the cardio I do. I even have cycling shoes. 4x a week or so burns about 600 cal in 45min.

If what your saying is right then Ill be able to negotiate my membership dues that I pay per month? Equinox is 230 a month, wouldnt mind getting a 50% reduction.

I doubt this has any impact on gym life though. Also BMI is stupid and no doctor I have ever spoken to, takes it serious. It doesnt take into consider muscle mass. MJ would have been considered overweight and Lebron obese lol.

A person who is chubby but exercises regularly is deemed healthier than a skinny person who doesn't workout.

[sonatine]

I agree the cases will drop fast once the people who got it in March either die or get better. This will bring some optimism, but I don't think officials will be dumb enough to just let everyone run out and return to normal, or we'll have the same problem all over again.

There is going to be a slow, cautious return to normalcy, and we will only get full normalcy when a vaccine or very reliable treatment exists. Prior to that, there will still be all kinds of precautions in place even as we return to do things.

Once the antibody test is reliable and exists in mass quantities (I'm talking like a billion of them), they might set up facilities to get antibody cards which certify you were tested with antibodies, and thus can go about business as usual. However, I'm not even sure they will do this, as it will create chaos if people start swapping, stealing, or counterfeiting these cards, and it also might create an unfortunate haves/have nots situation, where those without the antibodies (but also without the virus) will feel discriminated against.

Imagine if Joe down the street can return to work, eat at restaurants, go hiking, attend concerts, and attend ball games, and you can't, just because you smartly avoided catching it. I don't see that happening.

Also we don’t know how long we will keep antibodies for this, many docs seem to think we could catch it again in 1-2 years.

What we need is this thing to mutate 3-4 times and become less dangerous (something interesting about cold viruses is their mutations become less deadly as the virus is trying to survive in its host).

as it happens, all viruses mutate towards less lethality in the grand scheme. its their little darwinian evolution in action.

deadlier virus -> kills host -> less replication = more flawed

less deadly strains leave the host alive for longer periods and essentially dominate the market against the more deadly ones.

tl;dr viruses that kill their host are considered less efficient/effective than ones that dont.

wild card: engineered viruses could in theory be created with a finger on the scale to inhibit that charactaristic.

[Avon Barksdale]

Here is my guess of what I call "the 7 phases toward normalcy", with a guess regarding dates they occur:

Phase 1: Return to visiting with non-vulnerable friends and family - June 2020

Phase 2: Return to non-essential businesses, sporting events with no audience - July 2020

Phase 3: Return to restaurants and small gatherings - September 2020

Phase 4: Return to National Parks, hiking areas, and medium-sized (less than 250 people) gatherings - October 2020

Phase 5: Return to large gatherings (251-1000 people) - February 2021

Phase 6: Return to sporting events with an audience - April 2021

Phase 7: Return to huge events/gatherings (1001+) and cruise ships - June 2021

Not sure where casinos fit in here. They SHOULD be far down the list, but the state of Nevada might force it to happen earlier than it should.

I also think WSOP 2020 ain't happening at all.

You think places like Disneyland are going to stay closed for a year?

Fat chance.

They are bleeding to death right now.

[tgull]

Also we don’t know how long we will keep antibodies for this, many docs seem to think we could catch it again in 1-2 years.

What we need is this thing to mutate 3-4 times and become less dangerous (something interesting about cold viruses is their mutations become less deadly as the virus is trying to survive in its host).

as it happens, all viruses mutate towards less lethality in the grand scheme. its their little darwinian evolution in action.

deadlier virus -> kills host -> less replication = more flawed

less deadly strains leave the host alive for longer periods and essentially dominate the market against the more deadly ones.

tl;dr viruses that kill their host are considered less efficient/effective than ones that dont.

wild card: engineered viruses could in theory be created with a finger on the scale to inhibit that charactaristic.

As long as I am not getting this lethality then all is well. I just but a new car in January (paid cash), it would be a bad beat if I perished right after that.

[sonatine]

from a cosmic logic perspective, once you pay cash for anything, you're essentially a dead man walking, but lets be honest c19 has much softer targets at the table right now.

[OSA]

Yesss!!!!! Unfortunately people in the minority like you are doing things to positively impact your health, others are sitting home eating crap food and gaining weight. 90% of people in hospital with corona have underlying conditions and a majority of them are related to obesity. Yes, a few don’t but I bet a good percentage of the outliers have an undiagnosed underlying condition.

Never more than ever before, change or die. It was always like that really, but death related to obesity was always something that would happen further down the road, now it’s right in your face!

For those wanting to change but don’t know how, start by clearing your home of all junk and processed food. Buy lean meats, lots of fruit and veggies, READ LABELS. Eat clean and simple and you see the pounds fly off. If you have a lot of pain in your joints from being too fat start with low impact exercises, there are many online for now and as the weight comes off increase your activity.

Here are the facts

Women normal body weight is 100 lbs for 5’ and add 5 lbs for every inch above that.

Men 106 for 5’ and add 6 pounds for every inch above that.

Now there is a plus and minus 10% for a normal range.

A 5’8” woman should weigh 145 plus or minus 14.5 pounds.

6’ man should weigh 178 plus or minus 18 pounds.

An easy way to figure out how many calories you should eat is to download a free tracking app like LOSE IT. It auto calculates how many calories you should eat a day to lose a pound or 2 a week, choose slow weight loss. This will help you be aware of what you are doing and be accountable.

It is no longer an option to live unhealthy and live.

The problem I have with this is I have extremely broad shoulders.

I was 205-210 from 16-25, at that weight I was a 32 waist you could see all my ribs and had definition in my abs.

I like the if 2x your pants size is less than your height, you should be good studies.

Now my wife has a much more natural slender build and your numbers seem much more aligned.

Heyyyyyy

[splitthis]

Attributing high blood pressure to genetics only is lol. 40% of America is OBESE, not overweight. This is a huge public health crisis bigger than covid and the general public is in serious denial of the risks to their overall health.

When obese individuals in their 20s and 30s are on massive amounts of meds to control high blood pressure, high cholesterol, and diabetes, this is not a genetic problem.

The denial going on with widespread obesity is deadly. If anything good coming out of covid it will be stronger attention to the obesity epidemic.

[Salty_Aus]

I read reports in our local media that says the curve is flattening in the US. But I look at all the data and graphs and I don't see it slowing down at all.

If you look at NY 41% of those being tested are positive. 390k tests done and 160k positive as of the 9th.
NJ 107k tests for 51k positive. This is over 47% positive.
Michigan, Louisiana, Illinois also increasing. Now that they're doing a lot more testing you'd expect the percentage to drop off once they've tested those who are more likely to be infected, but the percentages are slowly creeping higher.
Also there has been 200+ deaths per day that are not being recorded in NY... wonder if other places are doing the same when someone dies at home without previously testing positive?

Yet on the other hand if you discount the places I've mentioned the curve "might" be flattening.
California for example has dropped 1 or 2 percent I believe. Was 12% positive a week ago and now 10.5%

I sincerely do hope the number of new cases drops very quickly. The deathrate is about to increase regardless as it catches up with all the new cases in the last week.

I did see Fauci dropped what he thought total deaths would be. Think he really knows his stuff so I'm hopeful.

Be safe everyone. 😊

[Avon Barksdale]

I did see Fauci dropped what he thought total deaths would be. Think he really knows his stuff so I'm hopeful.

Be safe everyone. 😊

That dude is a fraud. Doesn't pass the smell test for me.

[Dan Druff]

Attributing high blood pressure to genetics only is lol. 40% of America is OBESE, not overweight. This is a huge public health crisis bigger than covid and the general public is in serious denial of the risks to their overall health.

When obese individuals in their 20s and 30s are on massive amounts of meds to control high blood pressure, high cholesterol, and diabetes, this is not a genetic problem.

The denial going on with widespread obesity is deadly. If anything good coming out of covid it will be stronger attention to the obesity epidemic.

You not attributing high blood pressure to genetics is lol.

You're engaging in 1980s thinking -- when people avoided using salt during dinner because they believed it would cause them high blood pressure.

It's human nature to want to believe we have control over most things health related, where we get rewarded for good behavior while punished for bad behavior. In some ways, that's true. However, in others it is not.

High blood pressure and high cholesterol are very similar in genetics versus lifestyle. Both are primarily due to genetics. If you are genetically predisposed to either, then bad behavior can worsen them, but good behavior will not clear the problem. You need medication for that. Conversely, if you are NOT genetically predisposed, you will not have high levels, even if you eat poorly and don't exercise.

Still doubt me?

Explain this one:

I have a friend who is about the same age as me, similar diet, similar height/weight, similar amount of physical activity, and neither of us have any known major health issues.

He has high cholesterol. My cholesterol is great. He's on medication for cholesterol, I am not.

I have high blood pressure. His is great. I'm on medication for blood pressure, he is not.

How do you explain this? Everything is very similar as far as risk factors, yet we both have extremely different BP and cholesterol levels -- one good, one bad for each of us.

Genetics explains it. With my diet, I should have a terrible cholesterol problem. I don't. In fact, my level is excellent for my age. That's genetics, just as the high BP is also genetic.

Let's look at my brother. Similar height (a little shorter), weighs less than me, four years younger. Guess what? He has great cholesterol, high BP. Coincidence? Of course not. Once again, genetics.

People absolutely hate this fact because it seems unfair and almost arbitrary. But it's true.

BTW, I didn't have high blood pressure until I was 42 -- a very typical age for it to first present.

[Tellafriend]

Laid my own son off. That was a special bonding moment. He punished us by moving back home. He’s licking my tooth brush. I just know it.

I suspect you are a great dad and he's a lucky shit who won't realize it till it is too late. I have nothing to do w/ my sperm donor father any longer. Someone in my situation is able to recognize these things well. You will look back on this time with fondness despite the immediate grumpiness.

[blake]

I read reports in our local media that says the curve is flattening in the US. But I look at all the data and graphs and I don't see it slowing down at all.

If you look at NY 41% of those being tested are positive. 390k tests done and 160k positive as of the 9th.
NJ 107k tests for 51k positive. This is over 47% positive.
Michigan, Louisiana, Illinois also increasing. Now that they're doing a lot more testing you'd expect the percentage to drop off once they've tested those who are more likely to be infected, but the percentages are slowly creeping higher.
Also there has been 200+ deaths per day that are not being recorded in NY... wonder if other places are doing the same when someone dies at home without previously testing positive?

Yet on the other hand if you discount the places I've mentioned the curve "might" be flattening.
California for example has dropped 1 or 2 percent I believe. Was 12% positive a week ago and now 10.5%

I sincerely do hope the number of new cases drops very quickly. The deathrate is about to increase regardless as it catches up with all the new cases in the last week.

I did see Fauci dropped what he thought total deaths would be. Think he really knows his stuff so I'm hopeful.

Be safe everyone. ��

i think this is the opposite. the more tests you do, the higher the rate of people confirmed to have it will climb. the hospitalizations and the death rates are reportedly dropping which would indicate a flattening