*** OFFICIAL 2020 Democratic Presidential Nomination Race Thread ***

[blake]

congrats to biden on his $2,000,000,000 in new ad spending

[blake]

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well, at least biden isn't the only senile person running

[BCR]

Yeah, he’ll endorse him after he’s the presumptive nominee. No doubt. It would be out of line for a former president not to. I hope you’re right about this large swath of reasonable Americans voting blue. Turnout was up. I’ll say that. That’s encouraging. This is strange shit. Virginia and and Nevada are way more blue than an Ohio now. That’s a wash. It’s going to come down to PA, Wisconsin, and a handful of other places. I’d still much rather have trump than Biden on a wager. All day. If I see an ounce of enthusiasm for Biden in the rust belt my opinion may change. I just don’t see it. These elections are always referendums on the sitting president. That helps when you have a shit candidate. I hope the trump hatred shows up where it counts.

A republican has never won the White House without winning Ohio.

Lot of people talk about Fl and Wi Mi And a few other “key states” but it’s always Ohio that’s the most important.

Yeah I know this. A dem isn’t winning Ohio anymore except in a total landslide against trump. I live in the blue part. It’s trump crazy. Trump lived in my town during election. He still comes constantly. The population shift has all been towards Columbus, which is just suburbs full of red. It’s more similar to Indiana than Philadelphia ideologically. Ohio as a bellwether spells trouble for Dems. They’ll have to find a way to win it without Ohio. I think it’s possible Arizona is more reliably blue than Ohio in ten years.

[BCR]

I mean, I’m so sure Biden can’t win Ohio in a close election that I will buy mumbles dinner every single time he drives by my exit for the next 4 years. He can just call a half hour out and I’ll show up and pay his tab. It’s never happening. If the economy tanks and we are all walking around in masks, yeah Ohio can be won. Not short of that.

[MumblesBadly]

I find it kind of amazing how Bernie, from the start, just wasn’t anyone’s second choice. Dem socialism either scares you or it doesn’t and there is no middle ground. What’s weird is it’s just the label. I got screwed up by every exit poll that would say 65% support Medicare for all and then not vote for the only candidate that was pushing that

I wrote a couple weeks ago I’m not seeing the crowds and he seems less popular. Clearly he is. Much of the revolution got jobs or reside in trumps camp. I knew so many Bernie/Trump people last go around. The gop went populist first and kept them. You could see if moderates consolidated and progressives did, they were good to have it 60/40 most places. Warren staying in really doomed Bernie from a bad night to a horrible one. She’s going to be the most hated woman in progressive circles.

Everyone deciding last minute on Joe Biden is laughable. He’s only been around forever. The DNC just did a good job of convincing people he’s more electable, and I’m not sure he is. I think he is in Virginia or somewhere. Maybe everywhere. I’m just not convinced he can generate enthusiasm, but Bernie clearly can’t this time around either. The hatred for trump has to be at a zenith for Biden to have a prayer and I don’t see it, but maybe it’s because I’m in trumplandia.

It’s weird that no Super Tuesday or early primary states outside maybe VA and NC is where the election is decided. It’s great to win 80/20 in the Deep South, but it isn’t like that shit is going blue. You can guess where the first 15 contests are going to land in the general, so what value are you getting out of having the earliest primaries there? Either way, Bernie winning California is irrelevant as it’s blue anyway and Biden made his case. It’s just a shit case that I’m better than them worst candidates ever. I’m going to cringe every time he opens his mouth for the next 6 months.

If Biden somehow beats Trump in the general election, there is a legitimate risk that Biden would be the first sitting president to be removed from office due to his Veep and Cabinet invoking the 25th Amendment due to a decline in his mental faculties.

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[blake]

what's going to be really hysterical is when warren drops out and endorses biden

[blake]

this might be a bigger cenk uygur meltdown than the one we saw after trump won.

absolutely hilarious

[Sanlmar]

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Is there anything written that speculates as to what Biden’s cognitive problems are exactly?

If it’s just aging - what exactly is failing.

[MumblesBadly]

what's going to be really hysterical is when warren drops out and endorses biden

She’ll likely hang in until the convention and then try to use her pledged delegates to bargain with Biden for the Veep spot on the ticket if he doesn’t have enough to win on the first ballot.

But the real hysteria could begin if Biden has a non-majority lead in the delegate count going into the convention and Team Bernie doesn’t openly support Joe to be the nominee given what he alone said during the South Carolina debate about the plurality leader at that time deserving to be so.

[nightmarefish]

but xfactor and mumbles told me that bernie was a mortal lock to be the next president so now i'm confused.

something about the peasants getting their pitchforks?

There’s a few “experts” running really bad in this thread. Druff starting to count his additional jew gold.

[SPIT this]

what's going to be really hysterical is when warren drops out and endorses biden

She endorsed Clinton in 2016, so let's not rule it out

[SPIT this]

the loudest voices in the room have all been pro/anti bernie. cable news is treating biden's SC win like its the comeback of the century when it was like a 50-1 lock, so expect a lot more 'grass roots support' from the sorts of people who watch cable news.

Fact check: Biden fell below 40% in South Carolina at one point. Was only "inevitable" a few days before.

However, people on CNN kept saying "nobody saw Biden winning Texas" last night. This is actually wrong. I mean I saw it because I bet on it, but so did many people. The betting odds actually moved strongly towards Biden at the last minute. My book actually closed with Biden as a favorite in Texas, and predictit had it right around 50/50. There were some legitimately surprising wins though. Minnesota, Massachusetts, and Maine.

[sonatine]

what's going to be really hysterical is when warren drops out and endorses biden

she stayed in it to knock out bloomberg, now shes staying in it to shear off votes from bernie. seems pretty straight forward, shes been knifing him for a minute.

looking forward to those sweet, sweet bernie bro rage tears.

[SPIT this]

Sanders is screwed because he just spent the last week telling everybody how the delegate leader should be the nominee regardless. Oops.

[SPIT this]

Just to show I'm not just a Biden stan, I picked up Sanders to win North Dakota at 31%. That market has had wild swings and really wide spreads, so worth taking a look if you're a trader. May dump my shares before next week, I want to see what the 538 model says, but still think Sanders will win North Dakota and Idaho next week.

[MumblesBadly]

what's going to be really hysterical is when warren drops out and endorses biden

she stayed in it to knock out bloomberg, now shes staying in it to shear off votes from bernie. seems pretty straight forward, shes been knifing him for a minute.

looking forward to those sweet, sweet bernie bro rage tears.

Here you go...

[thesidedish]

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[MrTickle]

Sanders is screwed because he just spent the last week telling everybody how the delegate leader should be the nominee regardless. Oops.

And he’s right, and he will support Biden at the convention if Biden has the most.

When do we get California results?

[blake]

Sanders is screwed because he just spent the last week telling everybody how the delegate leader should be the nominee regardless. Oops.

And he’s right, and he will support Biden at the convention if Biden has the most.

When do we get California results?

bernie's up about 10 points with 85% reported.

by the end of super tuesday voting, it looks like biden will be up 20 delegates not including amy's, pete's or bloomberg's.

bernie might get warren's, maybe?

bernie was supposed to be winning by 200-300 delegates today

[duped_samaritan]

And he’s right, and he will support Biden at the convention if Biden has the most.

When do we get California results?

bernie's up about 10 points with 85% reported.

by the end of super tuesday voting, it looks like biden will be up 20 delegates not including amy's, pete's or bloomberg's.

bernie might get warren's, maybe?

bernie was supposed to be winning by 200-300 delegates today

NYTimes predicts Biden winning by a wider margin. Hasn't been updated since 4am, but I think he was up about 10% in CA then also.