Remember when Romney used to have a chance at winning?

[Corrigan]

I think it is fair to say at this point that 6toe has no idea what a probability is/how it works

[PLOL]

It amazes me how people simply refuse to understand things they are emotionally vested in when it comes to the outcome (like an election). Anyone who thinks the election is a dead heat is absolutley clueless. I guarantee if the numbers were reversed 6tp and the others would be singing InTrade's praises as a predictive market.

Pretty much every poll of LIKELY VOTERS(you know, real live people who vote) has it within 3 fucking points. The only one with a delusional vested interest skewing viewpoints is YOU.

Lol at using some degenerate political gambling site as the be all end all into who is going to win.

Wonder what Karl Rove's poll says, that would be the equivalent of Nate Silver. About as worthless as it can get.

If a candidate wins by 3%, that's basically a blowout. And Nate Silver adjusts his model to account for Likely Voters. If a poll uses Raw Voters, he'll adjust it a couple percentage points in favor of Mr. Romney.

In related news, just pre-ordered this on Amazon:
http://www.amazon.com/Signal-Noise-M...ds=nate+silver
Ship it, holla

[Dan Druff]

The percentage of votes doesn't matter.

It's how many electoral votes you win.

Reagan beat Mondale by 18 points (59-41), which sounds like a lot but not a supreme blowout.

However, he won 49 of 50 states (49 of 51 if you count DC), making it one of the biggest Presidential beatdowns of all time.

At this point I think Romney is going to do a little better than McCain did, but still easily lose.

[gut]

The percentage of votes doesn't matter.

It's how many electoral votes you win.

Reagan beat Mondale by 18 points (59-41), which sounds like a lot but not a supreme blowout.

However, he won 49 of 50 states (49 of 51 if you count DC), making it one of the biggest Presidential beatdowns of all time.

At this point I think Romney is going to do a little better than McCain did, but still easily lose.

Yup. Anyone who thinks Romney actually has a chance is delusional. He has to hit about an 8-state parlay to pull it off, which will not happen.

[PLOL]

The percentage of votes doesn't matter.

It's how many electoral votes you win.

Reagan beat Mondale by 18 points (59-41), which sounds like a lot but not a supreme blowout.

However, he won 49 of 50 states (49 of 51 if you count DC), making it one of the biggest Presidential beatdowns of all time.

At this point I think Romney is going to do a little better than McCain did, but still easily lose.

This is basically correct. Romney needs to win Florida, Ohio, N. Carolina and Virginia and then pick up his favorite among: CO, NV, NM, IA, or NH.

[son of lockman]

Well that's over. All of the worst things we've suspected of him are pretty much true. If you're not rich, he honestly doesn't give a shit about you.

CNN Link

In the footage, taped with a hidden camera, Romney argued nearly half of Americans will vote for President Barack Obama because they rely on government support, made apparent jokes about wishing he had Latino heritage, and talks about a Chinese factory his former firm purchased.

"There are 47 percent of the people who will vote for the president no matter what," Romney says in one clip. "There are 47 percent who are with him, who are dependent on government, who believe that, that they are victims, who believe that government has the responsibility to care for them. Who believe that they are entitled to health care, to food, to housing."

There was this guy who was big on the notion that people were entitled to health care, food, and housing. I'm pretty sure his name was Jesus.

[SixToedPete]

It amazes me how people simply refuse to understand things they are emotionally vested in when it comes to the outcome (like an election). Anyone who thinks the election is a dead heat is absolutley clueless. I guarantee if the numbers were reversed 6tp and the others would be singing InTrade's praises as a predictive market.

Steve, members have their favorite in the Presidential race. That doesn't mean they're blinded by 'emotion'.

If you read all of my above posts along with yours, it seems that you are the one being contentious.

I never outright dismissed Intrade. I merely pointed out that often the 'dog' wins over the 'favorite' in that prediction model market. I even gave you several examples, one where Intrade had it 77/23 and the 23 won.

It's the nature of that market as I explained above. I was not slamming Intrade. I would not recommend anyone trade on Intrade. Not because of any particular flaw in their model but simply because one must tie up money on the site until the outcome is reached. Intrade charges fees BUT pays zero interest on your money.

If the numbers were reversed I would say the same thing about Intrade.

[Steve-O]

It amazes me how people simply refuse to understand things they are emotionally vested in when it comes to the outcome (like an election). Anyone who thinks the election is a dead heat is absolutley clueless. I guarantee if the numbers were reversed 6tp and the others would be singing InTrade's praises as a predictive market.

Steve, members have their favorite in the Presidential race. That doesn't mean they're blinded by 'emotion'.

If you read all of my above posts along with yours, it seems that you are the one being contentious.

I never outright dismissed Intrade. I merely pointed out that often the 'dog' wins over the 'favorite' in that prediction model market. I even gave you several examples, one where Intrade had it 77/23 and the 23 won.

It's the nature of that market as I explained above. I was not slamming Intrade. I would not recommend anyone trade on Intrade. Not because of any particular flaw in their model but simply because one must tie up money on the site until the outcome is reached. Intrade charges fees BUT pays zero interest on your money.

If the numbers were reversed I would say the same thing about Intrade.

Saying the "dog wins often" is pretty dumb even for a 6TP post. I mean, unless your definition of "often" is different from the rest of the English speaking world:


of·ten
adverb
1.
many times; frequently:

2.
in many cases.

[Jasep]

PLOL looking to hedge in this thread....

Buyout option on the table right up until election night kid... number will rise every week though

[Jasep]

Oh and I am also willing to bet that the Dog side of the 66/34 comes in roughly 34% of the time....

[SixToedPete]

Steve, members have their favorite in the Presidential race. That doesn't mean they're blinded by 'emotion'.

If you read all of my above posts along with yours, it seems that you are the one being contentious.

I never outright dismissed Intrade. I merely pointed out that often the 'dog' wins over the 'favorite' in that prediction model market. I even gave you several examples, one where Intrade had it 77/23 and the 23 won.

It's the nature of that market as I explained above. I was not slamming Intrade. I would not recommend anyone trade on Intrade. Not because of any particular flaw in their model but simply because one must tie up money on the site until the outcome is reached. Intrade charges fees BUT pays zero interest on your money.

If the numbers were reversed I would say the same thing about Intrade.

Saying the "dog wins often" is pretty dumb even for a 6TP post. I mean, unless your definition of "often" is different from the rest of the English speaking world:


of·ten
adverb
1.
many times; frequently:

2.
in many cases.

Steve, no need to be condescending about my grasp of the English language. I graduated from Boston College with a degree in English literature and a minor in Business.

You are the one who doesn't understand Intrade. Yes, the dog often wins there. As I mentioned earlier, if the favorite always 'won', Intrade would go out of business.

Do a little research before you post something that only makes you look foolish.

[SixToedPete]

Oh and I am also willing to bet that the Dog side of the 66/34 comes in roughly 34% of the time....

Steve-O, maybe that will help you understand Intrade.

[Jasep]

Saying the "dog wins often" is pretty dumb even for a 6TP post. I mean, unless your definition of "often" is different from the rest of the English speaking world:


of·ten
adverb
1.
many times; frequently:

2.
in many cases.

Steve, no need to be condescending about my grasp of the English language. I graduated from Boston College with a degree in English literature and a minor in Business.

You are the one who doesn't understand Intrade. Yes, the dog often wins there. As I mentioned earlier, if the favorite always 'won', Intrade would go out of business.

Do a little research before you post something that only makes you look foolish.

Honest question... Does the dog win more than the probability of the situation on intrade? Like if you find 1000 instances of 66/34 scenarios is it going to be significantly more than 340 wins for the dog?

I don't do intrade so I don't know.

[Rollo Tomasi]

this is some of what is waiting for you if Obama gets reelected

[Jasep]

Actually Rollo this is what is waiting for me if Obama gets reelected

[shortbuspoker]

The percentage of votes doesn't matter.

It's how many electoral votes you win.

Reagan beat Mondale by 18 points (59-41), which sounds like a lot but not a supreme blowout.

However, he won 49 of 50 states (49 of 51 if you count DC), making it one of the biggest Presidential beatdowns of all time.

At this point I think Romney is going to do a little better than McCain did, but still easily lose.

Yup. Anyone who thinks Romney actually has a chance is delusional. He has to hit about an 8-state parlay to pull it off, which will not happen.

As long as he isn't on Verminard's parlay sheet I think he wins easy

[BUBBLES]

Actually Rollo this is what is waiting for me if Obama gets reelected

No offense jasep, but i hope you lose this bet.

[SixToedPete]

Steve, no need to be condescending about my grasp of the English language. I graduated from Boston College with a degree in English literature and a minor in Business.

You are the one who doesn't understand Intrade. Yes, the dog often wins there. As I mentioned earlier, if the favorite always 'won', Intrade would go out of business.

Do a little research before you post something that only makes you look foolish.

Honest question... Does the dog win more than the probability of the situation on intrade? Like if you find 1000 instances of 66/34 scenarios is it going to be significantly more than 340 wins for the dog?

I don't do intrade so I don't know.

Fair question. I'm not sure of the exact answer but I do recall that trading long term (with winning trades) index with Intrade returns about zero % when compared to a long term stock trading index which returned @7 %.

This is because Intrade pays absolutely no interest but they do charge fees. I believe their market cap is only 1 or 2 million dollars (not positive, correct me if I'm wrong here) so they're small potatoes. A fun site but never invest serious money there.

So far Intrade has made lots of money for......Intrade.

[SixToedPete]

this is some of what is waiting for you if Obama gets reelected

Great post Rollo.

I watched that Obama "I Actually Believe In Redistribution" video earlier today. Frightening that this guy is the President.

[Rollo Tomasi]

Actually Rollo this is what is waiting for me if Obama gets reelected

people will vote their wallet if they are better of today than they were 4 years ago they will vote Obama if they are worse off they will vote Romney

WSJ POLL: 70.9% No and 29.1% Yes