good to hear...kid deserves it...Originally Posted by Sanlmar
It’s ridiculous
Simp was on this large. God Bless.
man the hookers simp must get must be fucking amazing...
my silly, silly book posted O1 at -132...felt like I stole a half unit there...
starting to think about these overs...does it even pay to fire on these like 170s-180s plus overs pregame?
yeah we might get fucked every so often by a goal in the first minute, but starting to think our edge is gonna be greatly magnified by waiting to fire in game...when to do that is the question...
i mean if you get some of those games at like -140 or better I think youre printing...
don't know if you guys have a feel for that stuff or not...
I’ve posted many many times about this approach I use. I’ve see 30-40 point discounts on the juicier games the second the puck drops.
If I miss I move on but the value is rewarding.
By this point, I don’t know your bankroll but you put in a unit preflop and fire some fraction live a couple times. You bring down your average cost.
Blues under smooth as silk. No power plays.
None for Tampa either. This is starting to concern me. Increased penalties, like NBA, is key to scoring. Penalties are power plays too.
Is the NHL swallowing the whistle as we get late in season like the NFL, for instance. That’s a negative influence on scoring. I need help with stats there. Simp can help.
Take it down brother.
Last edited by Sanlmar; 03-07-2019 at 09:34 PM.
You watching Evander Holyfield fight? No rug on ice. Be funny if he died hitting head on ice.
Fucking great
Love the jerks.
I posted on the last page...saw it on PIT...-220 and then live they posted like -170 before the fucking puck dropped...I mean fuck that's a huge fucking sale...unreal...I’ve posted many many times about this approach I use. I’ve see 30-40 point discounts on the juicier games the second the puck drops.
If I miss I move on but the value is rewarding.
By this point, I don’t know your bankroll but you put in a unit preflop and fire some fraction live a couple times. You bring down your average cost.
Blues under smooth as silk. No power plays.
None for Tampa either. This is starting to concern me. Increased penalties, like NBA, is key to scoring. Penalties are power plays too.
Is the NHL swallowing the whistle as we get late in season like the NFL, for instance. That’s a negative influence on scoring. I need help with stats there. Simp can help.
Take it down brother.
gonna work it around in my head...don't want to get overexposed, but man getting SJ O1 at like -136 felt so fucking pure...as did getting CHI at even money...got over 3/4 of a unit profit on that game when firing pre-game would have netted less than 1/2...
think something like this might work:
0.5 pregame just in case you get that early goal
0.25-0.5 at like -140
0.25-0.5 at even
0.25-0.5 at 1 goal
i felt fine getting that PIT game at -140 like 4 minutes in, even though CBJ has been a dumpster fire lately...
youre spot on on TB...they've entered the CBJ territory...might be a live bet only...sales are good...
Look, I know shit about wagering. I’m still noodling it out.
But I do know the frontier and value is live. I understand in Britain it’s 61% of the handle. B&M books are still looking for platforms. It’s that unformed and dumb.
At the infancy of the Internet, Harolobob talked about the stupidity of the online books. Was he the greatest NBA punter? IDK. He sure was one of the first to exploit what we now know were obvious weak spots. that sadly no longer exist.
I think NBA and NFL preflop lines are tight and efficient. I see what I perceive as raging stupidity in the lesser sports live. Tennis, Hockey, exhibition baseball. Lol, Japanese baseball.
I saw the January sportsbook numbers for Nevada last week. They didn’t even call out Hockey as a line item. They listed baseball (in January). That’s how small the handle is.
Go ahead and pound them. It’s a pimple on their overall handle.
No one cares about live hockey. Maybe hockey period. Simp knows some really plus plus overnight shit. It’s sooooo inefficient. You spotted AC still being stupid.
It’s like 2003/2004 poker. Dumb & exploitable.
Live is where the value is. I watch the lines like we used to watch Bitcoin price action. Always getting a feel. I always have the window open when I’m watching any sport. Trying to feel it.
Now we all have lives. It takes a lot of time. I like the puzzle. It’s become a little consuming for me. I get compulsive about shit. I find how it all works fascinating.
I’ll eventually get bored and move on.
Last edited by Sanlmar; 03-07-2019 at 10:17 PM.
lol I hear ya on all that shit san...
when I placed that PIT bet thought I was getting good value at -145...but I was watching that game...no fucking action...just quickly counted, only 14 shots in the period...it was shit and you could see it...
PIT got that early PP goal and the CBJ goalie looked like he wanted to puke another one up, but PIT never got anything going at him and CBJ was just AIDS...so I bought off...lost a little vig...no harm, no foul...
Picked up another dog moneyline win ... this time with OKC +145.
And guess what happened in the game?
You guessed it.... OT. And the OT was a result of a double-fluke situation.
First, down 113-111, Portland missed a free throw with 4 seconds left, then intentionally missed the second in what was a Hail Mary attempt to get the rebound and put it back in. But instead, OKC stupidly fouled them and Portland got 2 more FTs, both of which were made to tie the game.
OKC still had 4 seconds to score back and win, but Westbook uncharacteristically dropped the ball out of bounds.
So it went to OT.
Fortunately OKC dominated the second half of OT, and won it easily.
My over pick lost on the other game lost, though.
Magic -7.
All aboard the Mavs tank train. I think it is a real under appreciated storyline how bad they have been playing since the Porzingis trade. Seems they really might not win another game. Interestingly, if their pick is high enough they get it keep it (it was part of the Luca trade) so a lot of motivation.
As an aside, Atlanta is one of the teams with a worse record they would need to jump backwards to increase their lottery odds. So Atl is EXTREMELY motivated to not let this happen, so this could present another tank betting opportunity down the road.
I like seeing someone else following NBA tanking, Verm. I saw your previous win.
Did you see Dallas leading 43-33? End of 1st qtr, I think? I would have added live but I missed it.
Be careful with the spread. They can play well until they change the lineup for the loss.
I always do ML and try to only fade tankers when they are on the road.
2 team parlay -131
MOBILE - BASKETBALL - NBA - 554 ORLANDO MAGIC -285 FOR GAME
MOBILE - HOCKEY - NHL - 74 WASHINGTON CAPITALS -329 FOR GAME
Not sexy but it’s another unit for the good guys.
Good luck.
That was a pretty lucky cover against Wiz. I was watching the game. Luka, Brunson and Powell played well and it took some Beal heroics at the end to seal the deal. The cover was in doubt until the last minute of the game.
I pretty much consider that a kitchen sink game by the Mavs and am not daunted moving forward.
looked at things for tonight...only will fire if simp approves...
NJ/WSH O
ANA/MON U
at -177 not interested in the NJ/WSH game...if I get a price live i'll consider it, but no fucking way paying upwards of 180 for that game...
Devils are unreliable recently. They were banned.
I don’t know who the Ducks are either.
Night off for me. See what the kid says
He went 4-0 yesterday, I think.
kids on a heater...popping bottles with models...heard tmz sports is following him around now...8th tier poker forum to that shit...kudos I say...Devils are unreliable recently. They were banned.
I don’t know who the Ducks are either.
Night off for me. See what the kid says
He went 4-0 yesterday, I think.
gotcha on the ducks...was thinking about firing on them pre-game...but i'll go with you guys...
5-1 yesterday not 4-0.
Waiting on NBA picks to be posted before submitting NHL picks.
Only one pick today... another dog moneyline.
Memphis +180 vs. Utah (+175 ok)
Starts 5:05pm PT
Ricky Rubio is out.
I have a confession
568 LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS -2 -108 FOR GAME
Clippers rested and at home. Nice little win streak
Thunder off Druff’s tough OT. Late late travel.
what in the actual fuck is this fucking shit?
EDIT: this is my main out (DK) that usually posts the best in-game lines...this is the market they're showing for the NJ/WSH game...see if it changes once puck drops...
EDIT: crisis averted...still have the regular lines...minute into the game O is already down to -130...quick sale on this one...
Last edited by GambleBotsChafedPenis; 03-08-2019 at 05:13 PM.
so first goal scored at 2:40...hopped on the U2.5 immediately after odds were posted at -117...right now at 6:01 can take the over at +133...gonna hold for another couple of minutes see what happens...
interesting arbing opportunity...don't know if this is a long term money maker or not...
EDIT: got the other side with 11 minutes to go at +170...decay on these things is nuts...
Last edited by GambleBotsChafedPenis; 03-08-2019 at 05:35 PM.
Jets moneyline
Ducks moneyline.
There are currently 4 users browsing this thread. (0 members and 4 guests)
Reply With Quote
