I'm confused about the Dodgers deal today.

Kemp is due $21.5m in 2019, and that's it. Dodgers are already on the hook for $3.5m of that from the Kemp-to-SD trade, and they also assumed responsibility for $7m more here. So the Dodgers are only saving $11m by unloading him.

Alex Wood is in his final year of arbitration. It's estimated that he will get about $10m.

Yasiel Puig's 7-year deal with the Dodgers ended in 2018, but they had control of him for one more year, in arbitration. It's estimated that he would get about $11m.

Kyle Farmer would get something around $550k. For salary purposes, he is a non-factor, since he will be replaced by another player making the Major League minimum, thus a wash.

The Dodgers are getting two mediocre prospects, plus Homer Bailey who will be released.

Bailey is owed $23 million for 2019 and $25 million for 2020, but can be bought out of 2020 for $5 million. This means the Dodgers will eat $28 million by buying out his 2020 and then releasing him.

In real money savings, the Dodgers aren't getting very much. They shipped off about $32m in projected salary and received $28m back (of which $23m has to be paid this year).

However, the difference is that the Dodgers will only take a $17.5m luxury tax hit for the Bailey buyout in 2019, while shedding $32m, meaning that they are saving about $14.5m in luxury tax overall.

This still doesn't leave them with enough room to sign Harper without going over the 2019 luxury tax threshold, so I don't completely understand this deal.

They also save a piddling $4 million overall in the entire affair, ignoring the luxury tax implications.

At the same time, they lose 3 players who would have had real value on the 2019 roster, and get no one useful in return.

Yes, I understand that the Dodgers needed to clear an OF spot if they wanted to go after Harper. Yes, I know the Dodgers were unlikely to want to re-sign Wood in 2020. Yes, I know Puig has been a headache during his tenure with the Dodgers. Yes, I know that Matt Kemp is unlikely to repeat his first half of 2018, and could be a liability in 2019.

Still, I would think Puig and Wood still had enough trade value (especially Wood) to where the Dodgers could have found a team to take these three payers WITHOUT returning a contract albatross like Bailey.

Had Bailey not been part of the deal, this would have made sense, even with the Dodgers shipping $7m cash to cover part of Kemp's salary. The Dodgers would shed $32m in salary, and get rid of players who aren't likely to be Dodgers in 2020 anyway. This would clear enough cap room to where they could sign Harper and not go over.

The trade where Kemp was acquired in 2018 made a lot more sense, as it was an exchange of bad contracts, but it allowed the Dodgers to get under the cap that year.

Here the Dodgers won't be under the cap if they sign Harper, AND they are giving away useful players while not receiving anyone useful in return (or even any good prospects).

In short, I'm not a fan of this trade.

BTW, if Harper doesn't come to LA, there's still a contingency plan.

Recall that the Dodgers got unexpected production from Max Muncy, and need to fit him into their starting lineup in 2019. With no Harper, they will put Muncy at 1B, move Bellinger to OF (where he actually plays pretty well), and then round out the outfield with Joc Pederson and some platoon of Andrew Toles/Kike Hernandez/Alex Verdugo. Then Chris Taylor will be moved to 2B, and they'll worry about catcher a bit later, perhaps just filling it with a junk player from within until Keibert Ruiz is ready in 2020. Alternately, Taylor and Hernandez could swap, with Taylor being OF and Hernandez being 2B.

So the starting position players would look like:

C ???
1B Muncy
2B Taylor / Hernandez
3B Turner
SS Seager
LF Pederson
CF Bellinger
RF Toles/Verdugo/Hernandez/Taylor

Starting pitching-wise, they'd have:
Kershaw
Buehler
Hill
Ryu
Maeda / Urias

Relieving, they'd have:
Maeda/ Urias
Floro
Fields
Alexander
Baez
Kelly
Jansen

On the bench, they'd have:
Some backup catcher
Freese
Toles
Verdugo
Some middle infieder

So they had enough depth to where they could still field a good team, even without a major signing.

Is this a championship team, as constructed? Probably not. Is it good enough to win the NL West again? Most likely.

But keep in mind that Walker Buehler is still getting better, Julio Urias was pretty damn good in October and may finally be ready to live up to the previous hype, and Corey Seager is coming back.

I'm still not understanding why they'd sign the moderately expensive Kelly when they already had plenty of middle relief, if the goal is to get under the cap. But sometimes the Dodgers front office really confuses me.