Getting to nearly 400lbs is, in some way, a mental health issue. Sometimes it’s compulsion, sometimes its depression, etc. If you bet against it, you’re either doing it out of encouragement, or because you think the person will fail to overcome the myriad of psychological and behavioral issues that cause one to ever get that high. You’re not betting against it because it’s hard. It isn’t, as evidenced by the fact he mailed it in for half the bet, and now can still win it with working hard for half the time frame involved. You’re betting that it isn’t hard, but that it’s hard for the individual involved, because they clearly lack discipline in that area of life. Every time
I’ve ever abused myself in any way, there’s always something deeper there going on. That’s the hard part. Not the simple math of calories in and out.