*** Official Flying Stupidity Wagering thread ***

[GambleBotsChafedPenis]

be advised before reading this that this is a semi-homer pick and I don't cap...

NOVA v WVU...line stands at 4.5/5 right now...If the line gets to 4 I really think there is value on the NOVA end...

ive watched damn near every NOVA game for as long as I can remember and the thing more than anything that gives NOVA trouble is long, athletic teams...even though NOVA plays a guard heavy lineup big doesn't really bother NOVA...these kids just man up and fight like motherfuckers and do a pretty good job negating size...

what does WVU do? they press the shit outta teams, speed them up, and make them make stupid mistakes...issue with that here is that NOVAs top 6 can all handle the ball...on a really bad day you would say that NOVAs two worst ball handlers, Spellman/paschal, are 'AVERAGE'...and that's on a day where they are playing like shit...that doesn't happen too often...so jay wright is gonna put 5 guys that can handle the ball well, pass well on the floor at the same time...the press on the whole wont bother NOVA...what does that press do? if broken properly it allows the guy with the ball to find open shooters...I haven't watched a lotta other teams night in and night out, but cant imagine there are any better teams in the country than NOVA at doing that...and if NOVA is finding open 3 point shooters, I have to imagine that it's gonna be a helluva long night for WVU...add in the fact that NOVA isn't playing WVU on the one day turnaround and had a full week to prepare for this press...that is absolutely huge...

the one thing about NOVA is the tendency to play tight in march/april...shit happened against BAMA...that first half was shit, then somebody lit a fire under Mikal bridges ass and he went fucking off for like 22 in the first 10 minutes of the 2nd half...the press doesn't really allow you to play tight...you aren't thinking, you are reacting to what you are seeing and going with the flow...the press doesn't allow your brain to get in the way of your natural ability...again that's a nice edge for NOVA...

NOVA is definitely giving up size on the inside to WVU so the offensive glass will be a source of worry...but as much of a worry as it is, these guys have been outsized before I don't see that being a ton of concern...

another little interesting tidbit about this game...WVU played their 2nd game on sunday at 10PM ET...I haven't looked, but I'm willing to bet that they didn't get out of san diego until Monday morning, flying all the way back east...so I'm willing to bet they lost a day of prep on Monday...they probably flew to boston last night so they really only had a couple of days to prepare for this game...NOVA played on noon on Saturday, in Pittsburgh which is around an hour or so flight from home in suburban philly...

I just think there are gonna be a lotta good chances for NOVA to win this game...at 5, I'm kinda meh on it...definitely wouldn't fire on it...but at 4, I think there's some value there and I might even fire on it although I know it's the biggest cardinal sin in betting to fire on a team you are heavily pulling for...

[gut]

Shohei Ohtani under 9.5 wins

I'd agree. Ohtani has looked like shit all spring, and could actually be demoted to start. probably not, but with service time considerations (as thanks to the last CBA, he's basically just a minor league prospect right now) it could happen.

Also, I seem to recall the Angels pondering a 6-man rotation as well. That knocks his max starts down to 27-28 even if healthy and on the team all year.

[Sanlmar]

Treating myself to a rare parlay tonight. Lakers owe me $

MOBILE - BASKETBALL - NBA - 801 PHILADELPHIA 76ERS -8 -115 FOR GAME

MOBILE - BASKETBALL - NBA - 806 NEW ORLEANS PELICANS -2½ -107 FOR GAME

+261

I am also treating myself to a Kershaw under. I hate locking up money for a whole season. Even worse, I hate paying huge juice on this crowded bet but it’s free money

I have sixteen different outs to win this bet.

MOBILE - MLB PLAYER FUTURES - REGULAR SEASON WINS BY PITCHER - CLAYTON KERSHAW (DODGERS) - UNDER +17½ WINS -140

I don’t have the Ohtani future. I’ll keep checking

Here’s a gift. Cody Bellinger sophomore slump. Not protected by Turner. Projected optimistically for 31. This bet might get me banned for props.

MOBILE - MLB PLAYER FUTURES - REGULAR SEASON HRS BY PLAYER - CODY BELLINGER (DODGERS) - UNDER +34½ HOME RUNS -115
CONTEST NOTES:

[Sanlmar]

Lakers games = zero.zero defense

LOS ANGELES LAKERS AT NEW ORLEANS PELICANS TOTAL UNDER 247.5

[simpdog]

Lakers games = zero.zero defense

LOS ANGELES LAKERS AT NEW ORLEANS PELICANS TOTAL UNDER 247.5

Might be jumping on the under at half. Likely will be like 265

[Brittney Griner's Clit]

Happy I didn't lose money betting against Chicago Loyola this round. Took me two games to realize Sister Jeans doesn't play.

[Dan Druff]

Lakers games = zero.zero defense

LOS ANGELES LAKERS AT NEW ORLEANS PELICANS TOTAL UNDER 247.5

Might be jumping on the under at half. Likely will be like 265

Total for 2H is 113.5

145 points scored in 1H

Pass

The one to watch for a live under is Utah. Lined at 199.5, at 223.5 right now in 2Q. I think it will slow down in 2H. A little afraid to bet now because I could still see a scoring frenzy during parts of the remaining quarter.

[Dan Druff]

Total only 104 in 2H for Jazz game.

Scoring slowed down in 2Q but game is too close (7 points), so I'm afraid I'll get fucked in the final minute like I did with Utah/Sac.

Pass.

[simpdog]

Live bet under 267.5

No pass for you

[Sanlmar]

Live bet under 267.5

No pass for you

You’re kidding, right?

If YOU bet it - you know that time stamp is legit.

ACCEPTED:
3/22/2018 8:53:29 PM
DESCRIPTION:
LOS ANGELES LAKERS AT NEW ORLEANS PELICANS TOTAL UNDER 267.5

Don’t
Love it though. Lakers games are retarded

[simpdog]

Live bet under 267.5

No pass for you

You’re kidding, right?

If YOU bet it - you know that time stamp is legit.

ACCEPTED:
3/22/2018 8:53:29 PM
DESCRIPTION:
LOS ANGELES LAKERS AT NEW ORLEANS PELICANS TOTAL UNDER 267.5

Don’t
Love it though. Lakers games are retarded

hoping someone starts playing D

[simpdog]

Have under 267 through under 270 live betting.

Doesn't feel good, but let's cash this.

[Sanlmar]

Holy shit. Nailed everything but one. Parlay and a never ending stream of unders

[jsearles22]

Holy shit. Nailed everything but one. Parlay and a never ending stream of unders

Pelicans win the last 4:05 9-2. Pretty absurd cover

[simpdog]

Holy shit. Nailed everything but one. Parlay and a never ending stream of unders

Was Druff hoping for a desperation 3 + OT?

I just kept wondering when one team would finally play D. Well neither really did but Lonzo helped us bigtime.

[simpdog]

Just degened half my Lakers proceeds on Kentucky +114

Let's go.

[snake_in_the_ass]

$500 worth of BTC to radio freeroll if Kansas and Villanova both lose. Thats 1% of what I'm gonna win if the impossible happens.

[Sanlmar]

I had Syracuse with the +10 last game - which was needless overkill. Love the long zone.

On my short list is Syracuse + 6.5 1st half

Might take Duke a half to noodle it out. Not something you can practice. Of course, 3’s are the answer to zone.

Still thinking.

I just couldn’t shake this idea. It feels like +6.5 might be lost soon and go +6.

I’ll write this up to entertainment for tonight. We will see

MOBILE - BASKETBALL - NCAA - 875 SYRACUSE +6½ -120 FOR 1ST HALF L

34-27

GG SFO

[Dan Druff]

Cleveland under 228
Utah under 193.5
Miami over 217.5

[Dan Druff]

Coming close to shutting it down on NBA for the year and trying baseball when it starts.

Late season so difficult to figure out.

Hit the Cavs under, got it way wrong with Miami over, and somehow I've bet the only two Utah unders which didn't cover in like the last 11.