
Originally Posted by
Charham
OK I have been all over the tanking teams and figuring out how to make $. The risk is that teams playing them will rest their starters , so games end up being closer. But tonight we have pathetic Memphis which has lost 17 in a row against the mediocre/poor Bucks who are #8 in the Eastern conference. Bucks don't have much going, but they won't be resting anyone and have to win this game. still 7.5 points, doesn't Memphis have to stay competitive, and just lose it in the end. SO I am thinking ML live bet during the game if it gets close. ML is -360 now, so try and get it down live to -200ish and bet big.
The other game I am eyeing is the OKC game. -12.5, ouch. ML is lol -1,300. So this is a bit tougher. Adams may be out, but on what planet does OKC lose at home. OKC still needs wins. If anything the play may be just put a ton of money on the ML live bet after its clear that OKC is playing hard, OBV Westbrook needs to be playing, etc. neither of these show a ton of value, but I feel like grinding some $ out of the tankers.
I'm thinking the strategy here is to fire on the favorites versus the tankers, with the exception of teams like OKC which tend to be inconsistent with their hustling.
From casual observation (meaning I haven't actually looked into the stats), it seems that the tankers have done horrible ATS as of late.
It's gotten quite tough to make "value" under pics because scoring seems to have gone up in the 2nd half of this season. Remember all of those unders I was picking and winning by 25+ points in the first half of the season? That's nearly impossible to come by nowadays.
I would suggest going with the spread, though, and not the ML, as the ML is just too damn steep, and one upset will screw you.