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Thread: Bitcoins are officially donkdown

  1. #5281
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    Quote Originally Posted by Forum Wars View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post
    Tell me what you think of this theory.

    I'm wondering if altcoins are dragging down bitcoin, which in turn are dragging down the altcoins.

    For a long time, bitcoin was considered cool.

    Now many of its earliest proponents are abandoning it for this-or-that altcoin.

    As it stands now, bitcoin is not so cool anymore, but altcoins are really cool. Bitcoin is more entering the domain of the public and the noobs.

    However, most altcoins are being purchased with bitcoin, so they are unfortunately tied together. (I realize that fiat currency can increasingly be used to purchase more mainstream altcoins, but unless I'm incorrect, I believe that most of these altcoins are still being bought with bitcoin.)

    So when bitcoin crashes, altcoins naturally go down, as well, as they are still very naturally tied together.

    Yet at the same time, the alts themselves have eroded bitcoin's coolness factor, and thus they are slowly falling out of favor, and declining in value.

    So unless one of the alts breaks our and stands well enough on its own, I wonder if this vicious cycle will drag down both bitcoin and altcoins.

    Remember that public enthusiasm in bitcoin is what drove the price from $800 in January 2017 to $19k that same year. The reverse of that can put it right back where it was.
    Agree with many of these points. However, an even bigger way of how the Alt-coins are hurting BTC imho is that Bitcoin supporters would constantly point out that there was a limit (21 million) in the amount of BTC that could be mined. We have collectively mined around 80% of those. Which, if BTC were the only game in town, would at least continue to help its reputation.

    But look this chart which shows BTC's market share vis-a-vis other "fake made out of thin air currencies":


    Bitcoin among all cryptocurrencies has decreased to all time lows, reaching 34.97 percent on Tuesday.

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    So, my friends, that become the Pandora's box for bitcoin. It's "specialness" vs. fiat, in that in cannot just be created out of thin air - while discretely true - is not true at all in the sense that there are SUBSTITUTES for BTC that can be created out of thin air. This is economics 101: If the price of something goes too high, and substitutes exist, the market will bring the price of the original high priced item down.

    Even worse then, is that the product here is Long Numbers only, not real products. There is no real utility to them except for sports bets and getting money out of Venezuela. And if Bitcoin's (or for that matter, the entire universe of Alt-coins') "specialness" in the eyes of "investors" cannot be maintained due to the open source nature the entrie world of alt-coins, that makes it possible for myself, you and Tito Jackson to invent our own coins...well...you can see how this all ends, and it doesn't take a genius.

    Love the fact that Druff correctly surmised that BTC aren't that cool or "special" to most people anymore...he's saying that substitutes are now palatable to a huge degree, and that makes all crypto as open-ended as fiat. At least fiat's supply is somewhat controllable.


    Really great thoughts here. I am now short BTC futures on CME.

     
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      Forum Wars: Just be careful, playing with bitcoin seems a bit like messing around with Nitroglycerin. You could get hurt before it goes down decently...

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    Should be an interesting couple of hours, the buy orders that were stacked at just under $9,000 are nearly all gone.

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    Plutonium sonatine's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by snake_in_the_ass View Post
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    fascinating, i hope it hurries because its down 7% from when you predicted this.



     
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      Salty_Aus: Not today
    "Birds born in a cage think flying is an illness." - Alejandro Jodorowsky

    "America is not so much a nightmare as a non-dream. The American non-dream is precisely a move to wipe the dream out of existence. The dream is a spontaneous happening and therefore dangerous to a control system set up by the non-dreamers." -- William S. Burroughs

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    Plutonium sonatine's Avatar
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    eth bottoming out now as well, having served its purpose to move peoples btc to exit exchanges.
    "Birds born in a cage think flying is an illness." - Alejandro Jodorowsky

    "America is not so much a nightmare as a non-dream. The American non-dream is precisely a move to wipe the dream out of existence. The dream is a spontaneous happening and therefore dangerous to a control system set up by the non-dreamers." -- William S. Burroughs

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    Quote Originally Posted by sonatine View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by snake_in_the_ass View Post
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    fascinating, i hope it hurries because its down 7% from when you predicted this.


    Seems to be lots of small buyers, and then the big sellers are driving the price down.

    Maybe the Koreans will wake up soon and save everyone

  6. #5286
    Plutonium sonatine's Avatar
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    there's also something going on with China/HK banks & atms that could easily be a player in this equation; mainland Chinese recently started traveling to HK with up to 50 ATM cards and withdrawing hundreds of thousands of dollars a day.

    its not clear if its 100% illegal yet but Chinese regulators are freaking the fuck out over it and apparently considering some sort of iron fisted smackdown.
    "Birds born in a cage think flying is an illness." - Alejandro Jodorowsky

    "America is not so much a nightmare as a non-dream. The American non-dream is precisely a move to wipe the dream out of existence. The dream is a spontaneous happening and therefore dangerous to a control system set up by the non-dreamers." -- William S. Burroughs

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    Diamond PLOL's Avatar
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    Bitcoin $8500. This is my favorite day ever

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    Plutonium sonatine's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by PLOL View Post
    Bitcoin $8500. This is my favorite day ever
    "Birds born in a cage think flying is an illness." - Alejandro Jodorowsky

    "America is not so much a nightmare as a non-dream. The American non-dream is precisely a move to wipe the dream out of existence. The dream is a spontaneous happening and therefore dangerous to a control system set up by the non-dreamers." -- William S. Burroughs

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    Plutonium lol wow's Avatar
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    Feels like this is more of a coldplay fix u live moment

  11. #5291
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    Are there options on the futures or just futures?

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    Plutonium simpdog's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by PLOL View Post
    Bitcoin $8500. This is my favorite day ever
    I don't think it hit 8500.

    8800 then back above 9000 is what I see

     
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      Salty_Aus: $8455 Bitstamp

  13. #5293
    Plutonium sonatine's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by simpdog View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by PLOL View Post
    Bitcoin $8500. This is my favorite day ever
    I don't think it hit 8500.

    8800 then back above 9000 is what I see

    It hit 8400 before the automatic buys at 8500 were felt.
    "Birds born in a cage think flying is an illness." - Alejandro Jodorowsky

    "America is not so much a nightmare as a non-dream. The American non-dream is precisely a move to wipe the dream out of existence. The dream is a spontaneous happening and therefore dangerous to a control system set up by the non-dreamers." -- William S. Burroughs

  14. #5294
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    Quote Originally Posted by GambleBotsChafedPenis View Post
    Are there options on the futures or just futures?
    There aren't options yet. I know they have reached out to some market makers to see if they are willing to mass quote. I am not sure if there has been much interest.

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    Quote Originally Posted by monsterj View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by GambleBotsChafedPenis View Post
    Are there options on the futures or just futures?
    There aren't options yet. I know they have reached out to some market makers to see if they are willing to mass quote. I am not sure if there has been much interest.
    Sure nobody wants to take that shit on...vol would be stupidly expensive on them...

    Be scared shitless to just have futures on something like BTC...

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    Bitcoin worth over 9x what it was a year ago


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    Quote Originally Posted by chinamaniac View Post
    Bitcoin worth over 9x what it was a year ago


    it has a great PR agent, credit where due.
    "Birds born in a cage think flying is an illness." - Alejandro Jodorowsky

    "America is not so much a nightmare as a non-dream. The American non-dream is precisely a move to wipe the dream out of existence. The dream is a spontaneous happening and therefore dangerous to a control system set up by the non-dreamers." -- William S. Burroughs

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    To anyone thinking of shortselling (I have no idea if BTC shortselling is the same as stocks, but it should be).

    Bitcoin goes to 0: you double your initial investment

    Bitcoin doubles from where you shorted: you loose 100% of your intial investment

    Bitcoin quadruples from where you shorted: you loose 300% of your initial investment (EDITED)

    Bitcoin goes up 10x from where you shorted: you loose 900% of your initial investment

    and so on and so forth.

    YOU CAN LOSE A LOT MORE THAN YOU PLUNKED DOWN. WORTH IT TO SHORT? PROBABLY NO, EVEN IF YOU CAN BE DARNED SURE THAT HISTORY WILL PROVE THAT THESE THINGS ARE STRING CHEESE EQUIVALENTS.

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  19. #5299
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    As somebody who watched a guy blowtorch his career by being overexposed to a volatile market naked shorting BTC with any large volume is a bad idea regardless of what you think of BTC...

    Thing is way too damn volatile to risk a large chunk of capital on...

  20. #5300
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    Quote Originally Posted by GambleBotsChafedPenis View Post
    As somebody who watched a guy blowtorch his career by being overexposed to a volatile market naked shorting BTC with any large volume is a bad idea regardless of what you think of BTC...

    Thing is way too damn volatile to risk a large chunk of capital on...
    I'd like to see a host of options offered. Plenty of different strike prices and time-frames. I would have bought three month put options last month at several strike prices if they were reasonably priced. But of course with this volatility they would have been way overpriced and the margin calls would be nearly impossible to manage.

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