Page 689 of 2088 FirstFirst ... 18958963967968568668768868969069169269369973978911891689 ... LastLast
Results 13,761 to 13,780 of 41743

Thread: *** Official Flying Stupidity Wagering thread ***

  1. #13761
    Bronze KidPresentable's Avatar
    Reputation
    35
    Join Date
    Oct 2017
    Posts
    146
    Load Metric
    108499740
    Nick Saban is the real MVP for pulling Hurts. That’s 3-1 on rushing unders. All hail Daly and chinamaniac.

    I’m entertained.

  2. #13762
    Welcher jsearles22's Avatar
    Reputation
    561
    Join Date
    Mar 2012
    Posts
    6,690
    Load Metric
    108499740
    Quote Originally Posted by KidPresentable View Post
    Nick Saban is the real MVP for pulling Hurts. That’s 3-1 on rushing unders. All hail Daly and chinamaniac.

    I’m entertained.
    4-1 here with Hurts also going under barely

    Color me
    It's hilarious that we as a society think everyone can be a dr, a lawyer, an engineer. Some people are just fucking stupid. Why can't we just accept that?

  3. #13763
    Master of Props Daly's Avatar
    Reputation
    2896
    Join Date
    Mar 2013
    Posts
    10,964
    Load Metric
    108499740
    Quote Originally Posted by KidPresentable View Post
    Nick Saban is the real MVP for pulling Hurts. That’s 3-1 on rushing unders. All hail Daly and chinamaniac.

    I’m entertained.
    I have Sonny over Rushing and Ridley pushing 4 receptions (Fromm over comps was over but that was the one over I liked). Everything else was under. Fucking bookies going to be piiiiiiiised.

     
    Comments
      
      jsearles22: Pissed bookies rep

  4. #13764
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
    Reputation
    11068
    Join Date
    Mar 2012
    Posts
    58,738
    Blog Entries
    2
    Load Metric
    108499740
    Second day in a row I got pounded in the ass when the bet seemed pretty safe in the final minutes.

    Still went 1-1 again, with Sac covering the over by 8. Believe it or not, while I haven't picked many overs, those have been my most successful bets this year.

    Record is now 107-75-2.

  5. #13765
    Platinum
    Reputation
    336
    Join Date
    Mar 2012
    Posts
    4,696
    Load Metric
    108499740
    Early nba bets

    Took Miami +4.5 and U206.5. Toront just played an OT game yesterday and Lowry hurt. Expect them to come out flat at home.

  6. #13766
    Diamond Hockey Guy's Avatar
    Reputation
    1235
    Join Date
    Mar 2012
    Location
    Canada
    Posts
    7,630
    Load Metric
    108499740
    Quote Originally Posted by Daly View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by KidPresentable View Post
    Nick Saban is the real MVP for pulling Hurts. That’s 3-1 on rushing unders. All hail Daly and chinamaniac.

    I’m entertained.
    I have Sonny over Rushing and Ridley pushing 4 receptions (Fromm over comps was over but that was the one over I liked). Everything else was under. Fucking bookies going to be piiiiiiiised.
    Yeah, you're god but you give such stale lines that nobody else can get. If I could get those lines I'd be god too if I bet props, which I don't because the limits are too small & the books will cut you off if you win & no REAL gambler bets them.

     
    or something like that.
    (•_•) ..
    ∫\ \___( •_•)
    _∫∫ _∫∫ɯ \ \

    Quote Originally Posted by Hockey Guy
    I'd say good luck in the freeroll but I'm pretty sure you'll go on a bender to self-sabotage yourself & miss it completely or use it as the excuse of why you didn't cash.

  7. #13767
    Diamond chinamaniac's Avatar
    Reputation
    1012
    Join Date
    Mar 2012
    Location
    On a Plane
    Posts
    7,791
    Blog Entries
    2
    Load Metric
    108499740
    Quote Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post
    Second day in a row I got pounded in the ass when the bet seemed pretty safe in the final minutes.
    .
    There is an old saying from 80s 90s NBA handicapper legend Scotty Morris that goes "no lead or deficit in the NBA is safe because in the NBA everyone makes a run"

    It's the one thing that I hate about betting NBA games. Just when you think your safe the noose is waiting

  8. #13768
    Plutonium Sanlmar's Avatar
    Reputation
    4728
    Join Date
    Mar 2013
    Posts
    23,274
    Load Metric
    108499740
    I lurk Druff’s picks and rants.

    I have been entertained.

    He is coy about his tools and process but whatever. He could have deployed some mechanical turks here or elsewhere if he thought the process was sound.

    If he genuinely believes his results aren’t variance he should chart his results over time. The result would force him to decide wether his approach and ideas were valuable and ahead of the lines early season. Perhaps the gap narrowed as the season progressed.

    You chart the results and trade the chart. Or you can think. Thinking rarely works. Trade what you see.

  9. #13769
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
    Reputation
    11068
    Join Date
    Mar 2012
    Posts
    58,738
    Blog Entries
    2
    Load Metric
    108499740
    You've got about 1.5 hours to bet this one:

    OKC under 205 -115 (204.5 -110 ok)

    Probably the only play today.

  10. #13770
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
    Reputation
    11068
    Join Date
    Mar 2012
    Posts
    58,738
    Blog Entries
    2
    Load Metric
    108499740
    Sharps are on my play.

    They are also on Miami +4.5, Lakers under 212.5, and Dallas under 215. However, I can't endorse any of those at this time (though I'm not going against them either).

  11. #13771
    Platinum
    Reputation
    336
    Join Date
    Mar 2012
    Posts
    4,696
    Load Metric
    108499740
    I took Dallas/Orlando O214.5. I think it will be a surprisingly close high scoring game.

  12. #13772
    Platinum
    Reputation
    336
    Join Date
    Mar 2012
    Posts
    4,696
    Load Metric
    108499740
    MiamI starting shooting guard is resting. Don’t love this but nothing to do about it now.

  13. #13773
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
    Reputation
    11068
    Join Date
    Mar 2012
    Posts
    58,738
    Blog Entries
    2
    Load Metric
    108499740
    Quote Originally Posted by Sanlmar View Post
    I lurk Druff’s picks and rants.

    I have been entertained.

    He is coy about his tools and process but whatever. He could have deployed some mechanical turks here or elsewhere if he thought the process was sound.

    If he genuinely believes his results aren’t variance he should chart his results over time. The result would force him to decide wether his approach and ideas were valuable and ahead of the lines early season. Perhaps the gap narrowed as the season progressed.

    You chart the results and trade the chart. Or you can think. Thinking rarely works. Trade what you see.
    I'll be honest. Shortly after the NBA season started, I had the urge to start betting it, but I didn't want to throw away $ betting like a fish.

    So I came up with a completely different process which I felt had a chance to be +EV, but obviously wanted to put it into practice before betting anything large. (I'm betting money which is semi-meaningful, but nothing which will result in a big win or big loss for the year, no matter what.)

    Then it broke out really hot, and I still kinda dismissed it as variance.

    Then it hung around as high as 61% over 162 picks, and I thought at that point I really had something. I started talking to people about maybe betting bigger or doing something else with them.

    Literally the next day I was greeted with an 0-4 -- none of which were close. It was like a kick in the nuts. I didn't bet bigger on them, fortunately, but decided that this was a wake up call to wait-and-see, even if it was just one bad day (and just my second four-game losing streak of the season).

    Then the next day, I almost went 0-3, which was also quite rare. I was saved when an under -- on pace to lose for almost the whole game -- managed to cover by a few points. Then I got blown out the next day on my only pick, to fall to 1-7. I'm 8-6 since then in picks, so the bleeding has ended.

    But let's look at the past 22 picks. I'm 9-13, which is bad, but not terrible, even for someone hitting 61% over 162 picks prior to that.

    But more disturbing is the way these games have gone down. Of the 9 wins, only three of them were easy (where there was never a sweat). Of the 13 losses, 11 of them were clear for most of the game, with only two (Houston under and the previous day's Portland side) being last-minute screw jobs.

    So in 22 picks, I put up only 3 easy winners but 11 easy losers. Ouch.

    What about before? I didn't count, but it was mostly the opposite. Many of my wins were of the decisive, little-sweat variety, while many losses were fairly close. Yes, there were some close wins and blowout losses, but up through December 30, the average win margin was definitely far higher than the average loss margin, especially if you removed a few outliers on both ends.

    And I think that's just as important to follow as wins and losses. If a game is close the whole way and you win/lose based upon some meaningless points at the end, that says nothing of your skill. It means the books were correct in setting the line, and the ball just fell/didn't fall your way.

    Skill in NBA handicapping is most apparent when you're REALLY right fairly often, rather than falling slightly on the side of right. A 1-point win pays the same as a 30-point win, but the handicapper you should follow is the one putting up a lot of decisive wins. Up through December 30, I was that handicapper. Since then, I have not been.

    We shall see what happens.

     
    Comments
      
      Sanlmar: Good read
      
      Charham: Self awareness rep.

  14. #13774
    Gold Charham's Avatar
    Reputation
    113
    Join Date
    May 2012
    Posts
    1,066
    Load Metric
    108499740
    Quote Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Sanlmar View Post
    I lurk Druff’s picks and rants.

    I have been entertained.

    He is coy about his tools and process but whatever. He could have deployed some mechanical turks here or elsewhere if he thought the process was sound.

    If he genuinely believes his results aren’t variance he should chart his results over time. The result would force him to decide wether his approach and ideas were valuable and ahead of the lines early season. Perhaps the gap narrowed as the season progressed.

    You chart the results and trade the chart. Or you can think. Thinking rarely works. Trade what you see.
    I'll be honest. Shortly after the NBA season started, I had the urge to start betting it, but I didn't want to throw away $ betting like a fish.

    So I came up with a completely different process which I felt had a chance to be +EV, but obviously wanted to put it into practice before betting anything large. (I'm betting money which is semi-meaningful, but nothing which will result in a big win or big loss for the year, no matter what.)

    Then it broke out really hot, and I still kinda dismissed it as variance.

    Then it hung around as high as 61% over 162 picks, and I thought at that point I really had something. I started talking to people about maybe betting bigger or doing something else with them.

    Literally the next day I was greeted with an 0-4 -- none of which were close. It was like a kick in the nuts. I didn't bet bigger on them, fortunately, but decided that this was a wake up call to wait-and-see, even if it was just one bad day (and just my second four-game losing streak of the season).

    Then the next day, I almost went 0-3, which was also quite rare. I was saved when an under -- on pace to lose for almost the whole game -- managed to cover by a few points. Then I got blown out the next day on my only pick, to fall to 1-7. I'm 8-6 since then in picks, so the bleeding has ended.

    But let's look at the past 22 picks. I'm 9-13, which is bad, but not terrible, even for someone hitting 61% over 162 picks prior to that.

    But more disturbing is the way these games have gone down. Of the 9 wins, only three of them were easy (where there was never a sweat). Of the 13 losses, 11 of them were clear for most of the game, with only two (Houston under and the previous day's Portland side) being last-minute screw jobs.

    So in 22 picks, I put up only 3 easy winners but 11 easy losers. Ouch.

    What about before? I didn't count, but it was mostly the opposite. Many of my wins were of the decisive, little-sweat variety, while many losses were fairly close. Yes, there were some close wins and blowout losses, but up through December 30, the average win margin was definitely far higher than the average loss margin, especially if you removed a few outliers on both ends.

    And I think that's just as important to follow as wins and losses. If a game is close the whole way and you win/lose based upon some meaningless points at the end, that says nothing of your skill. It means the books were correct in setting the line, and the ball just fell/didn't fall your way.

    Skill in NBA handicapping is most apparent when you're REALLY right fairly often, rather than falling slightly on the side of right. A 1-point win pays the same as a 30-point win, but the handicapper you should follow is the one putting up a lot of decisive wins. Up through December 30, I was that handicapper. Since then, I have not been.

    We shall see what happens.
    let me ask you around the time of the slump were you doing anything different? E.g. reaching for picks?

  15. #13775
    Diamond chinamaniac's Avatar
    Reputation
    1012
    Join Date
    Mar 2012
    Location
    On a Plane
    Posts
    7,791
    Blog Entries
    2
    Load Metric
    108499740
    Quote Originally Posted by Charham View Post
    let me ask you around the time of the slump were you doing anything different? E.g. reaching for picks?
    In the grand scheme of things is a 1-7 stretch or a 9-13 stretch really going through a slump? All things considered if that is the worst slump then that is a great thing. Totally normal

  16. #13776
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
    Reputation
    11068
    Join Date
    Mar 2012
    Posts
    58,738
    Blog Entries
    2
    Load Metric
    108499740
    Speaking of slumps, I really liked today's OKC under but it looks like it's headed for loserville.

    Bad 3rd quarter.

    Still has a shot but we are getting to the point where I'm close to turning it off.

    Don't regret this one though. Theory behind it was good, just doesn't seem to be happening.

  17. #13777
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
    Reputation
    11068
    Join Date
    Mar 2012
    Posts
    58,738
    Blog Entries
    2
    Load Metric
    108499740
    To answer Charham, no I'm not doing anything different.

    Portland/OKC under lost pretty big tonight.

    Interestingly both other sharp plays which are going have either won or are going to win, plus one yet to start.

    Anyway 0-1 today takes me to 107-76-2.

  18. #13778
    Platinum
    Reputation
    336
    Join Date
    Mar 2012
    Posts
    4,696
    Load Metric
    108499740
    Went 2-1. Could have actually been 3-0. Orlando went 3 minutes without scoring at the end and over only missed by 2 points.

    Meh.

  19. #13779
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
    Reputation
    11068
    Join Date
    Mar 2012
    Posts
    58,738
    Blog Entries
    2
    Load Metric
    108499740
    Here are picks on the early games. I'll be back later maybe with more.

    Washington under 207.5
    Detroit under 205
    Chicago +4.5

  20. #13780
    Gold Charham's Avatar
    Reputation
    113
    Join Date
    May 2012
    Posts
    1,066
    Load Metric
    108499740
    Quote Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post
    Here are picks on the early games. I'll be back later maybe with more.

    Washington under 207.5
    Detroit under 205
    Chicago +4.5
    ok like Chicago, and Detroit plays. bit worried about Washington being able to hit 110-120 so will pass on it. GL to us.

Thread Information

Users Browsing this Thread

There are currently 3 users browsing this thread. (0 members and 3 guests)

Similar Threads

  1. Offers of thought on this one needed.
    By son of lockman in forum Flying Stupidity
    Replies: 17
    Last Post: 09-20-2013, 04:54 PM
  2. Sportsbook suggestions
    By Walter Sobchak in forum Flying Stupidity
    Replies: 4
    Last Post: 02-02-2013, 11:04 AM
  3. negotiating compensation from job offers
    By mulva in forum Flying Stupidity
    Replies: 5
    Last Post: 11-12-2012, 09:17 PM
  4. Best Sportsbook on the strip ?
    By FrenchJew in forum Poker Community Discussion
    Replies: 0
    Last Post: 06-09-2012, 11:50 AM
  5. Vwls-Props for doing radio and making it interesting!
    By Pokehermaniac in forum Flying Stupidity
    Replies: 9
    Last Post: 06-01-2012, 08:36 PM

Tags for this Thread