Isn't that the way you'd expect the line to live given the betting?Originally Posted by Daly
my book went to 4.5 and now just hit 5...
my book went to 4.5 and now just hit 5...
4.5 is market price. Still way more money on SMU.
Interesting market for sure.
Just curious, where are you seeing the heavier $ on SMU?
I'm seeing that the betting was heavy on SMU initially, but the money started to come in on LA Tech about 6 days ago, and due to a jump in LA Tech money today, there's actually more on LA Tech.
I'm also seeing that the quick blip of the line being 3.5 was due to that flood of $ on LA Tech, and then it popped back to 4.5 after a flood of $ came the other way.
????
Isn't that the way you'd expect the line to live given the betting?
Never mind. It's been a long day.
This was on the covers twitter handle a few hours ago and I've seen other reports saying the same.
Despite 61% of bets on SMU (bit.ly/2BR4G6x), the line for the DXL Frisco Bowl has moved from Mustangs -5 to -4 versus Louisiana Tech. At 71 points, this is the biggest total on the bowl betting board.
Sportsbook.ag is showing 58% at the moment.
William Hill showed 68% of the tickets and 81% of the $$ on Monday.
I think it's logical we are getting some buyback on LaTech now. That said we had a lot of RLM on this game early on.
I see sportsbook.ag shows 56% of tickets on SMU but they never list the $.This was on the covers twitter handle a few hours ago and I've seen other reports saying the same.
Despite 61% of bets on SMU (bit.ly/2BR4G6x), the line for the DXL Frisco Bowl has moved from Mustangs -5 to -4 versus Louisiana Tech. At 71 points, this is the biggest total on the bowl betting board.
Sportsbook.ag is showing 58% at the moment.
William Hill showed 68% of the tickets and 81% of the $$ on Monday.
I think it's logical we are getting some buyback on LaTech now. That said we had a lot of RLM on this game early on.
Sportsinsights has told a different story for awhile. Right now they claim 45% of $ is on SMU, and 59% of tickets. They've shown at least 35% of $ on LA Tech since late 12/14, and often in the 40s (now 56%).
I've been trying to figure out how many sources Sportsinsights really has. They like to claim 50, but I don't think I believe that. However, I do notice an amazing correlation in many cases between their $ figures and the Pinnacle/Westgate lines, so I tend to believe them.
BTW I am not doubting your LA Tech pick. I'm in that camp as well, and will probably throw some $ on it. Just noticed that the betting numbers I was seeing were different. I did see reverse line movement early on, as you mentioned.
NBA:
Boston Under 200 (199.5 ok)
OKC -7.5 (8 ok, but -7.5 still exists on Bovada)
OKC Under 197.5 (197 ok)
May post more shortly.
More NBA:
Memphis +10
Detroit Over 197 -115 (197.5 -110 ok)
DeMar DeRozan over 9 assists + rebounds -135 (5dimes) or -120 (Bovada)
Took La Tech and the over in college FB.
Rockets/Lakers O226. Could be a blowout, but both these teams B units play fast and try to pile on the points in blowouts, so not too worried.
Right now LA Tech is back to 4.
I see many sharps are on it too. Fired myself at 4.
GL everyone
Of my posted picks, the sharps are only on the Boston under and the Memphis +10.
The sharps also seem to love Atlanta and Orlando but I can't fully get behind those, so I didn't touch those games.
Don't ever question me again Todd.
No worries. I'm not that guy. I secretly post here so that someone can come in and tell me stupid a play is from an angle I'm not thinking about.
the whole movement was really strange...haven't seen too many lines move that quickly that far away from game time (especially in a mid week bowl game)...I looked it was 4.5 and then about 5 minutes later it got to 5 and then slammed down to 4 again...this was 2 hours ago too...
#FadeVermParlay
LaL u226.5
SMU -4
SMU u71.5
Free money
It's hilarious that we as a society think everyone can be a dr, a lawyer, an engineer. Some people are just fucking stupid. Why can't we just accept that?
I think it is what it is at this point. I see more public money on SMU, sharps split. Some people see an underachieving 2017 La Tech team. Others see a La Tech team that came on late in the year playing a team who's coach and assistants checked out and new ball coach who hasn't been there 15 minutes calling the plays with a first round WR who, if you ask me, shouldn't even suit up.
Guess we going to find out soon enough.
For what it's worth I think of you got a book with +3 1h there might be more value in it than +4 for game.
Remember between 4.5 and 6 is no mans land when it comes to NCAAF spreads. The 1.5 points is almost completely meaninglessthe whole movement was really strange...haven't seen too many lines move that quickly that far away from game time (especially in a mid week bowl game)...I looked it was 4.5 and then about 5 minutes later it got to 5 and then slammed down to 4 again...this was 2 hours ago too...
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