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Thread: *** Official Flying Stupidity Wagering thread ***

  1. #7941
    Silver ThreeBet's Avatar
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    So nice to win on Sea +1 with a tie.


  2. #7942
    Plutonium big dick's Avatar
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    winning on the tie has gotta be sweet
    Last edited by big dick; 10-23-2016 at 11:43 PM.

  3. #7943
    Plutonium Sanlmar's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by big dick View Post
    oh yeah winning on the tie has gotta be sweet
    Live wager fail.

    Accepted:
    10/23/2016 11:20:52 PM
    Description:
    SEATTLE SEAHAWKS at ARIZONA CARDINALS Money Line SEAHAWKS PK +235

     
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      GambleBotsChafedPenis: Hauschka Owes You Money Rep

  4. #7944
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    yuk

  5. #7945
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    Quote Originally Posted by TMMLK View Post
    SO Sick to lose on a tie - ARZ failed huge..why not going on 3rd and goal? LOLZ - such a cooler -weeeeeeeeeeeeeee
    I went with your Cardinals but I was smarter than you tonight. I went with the moneyline. Your magic touch is slowly fading.

    Sport / Period: NFL Football / Game
    Selection:
    Arizona Cardinals 10/23/2016 8:30:01 PM - (EST)
    -126

  6. #7946
    Plutonium Sanlmar's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by big dick View Post
    yuk
    Laughable but I got my bet back.

    I posted my Cubs +122 anti Kershaw bet in TMMLK's thread. I've been pretty quiet other than winning Pats today.

    l just gotta wait for this to cash now:
    10/23/2016 12:41:18 PM
    Description:
    Mobile - Baseball - MLB Series - 801 Cubs Series Prices -205 for Game

    It's hard to describe my man love for Theo Epstein and how the Cubs were built. I cannot get enough. When he went for the kill with Chapman he proved once again the stones and the commitment to winning you never otherwise see. He knows how small the window is. Untold shit happens in future years with injuries and such.

    I think of Dodgers failing to get a closer during the Kershaw Greinke run of 2015.

    Dombrowki and the Tigers failing to get a closer during Scherzer Verlander run.

    No stones. Look at the Tigers now especially.

    I don't know how into it you are but I liked this summary:

    World Series 2016: Here's how the NL champion Chicago Cubs were built
    http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/wo...bs-were-built/

    Win or lose I like your pit bull style. Nice work with everything.

  7. #7947
    Plutonium big dick's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sanlmar View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by big dick View Post
    yuk
    Laughable but I got my bet back.

    I posted my Cubs +122 anti Kershaw bet in TMMLK's thread. I've been pretty quiet other than winning Pats today.

    l just gotta wait for this to cash now:
    10/23/2016 12:41:18 PM
    Description:
    Mobile - Baseball - MLB Series - 801 Cubs Series Prices -205 for Game

    It's hard to describe my man love for Theo Epstein and how the Cubs were built. I cannot get enough. When he went for the kill with Chapman he proved once again the stones and the commitment to winning you never otherwise see. He knows how small the window is. Untold shit happens in future years with injuries and such.

    I think of Dodgers failing to get a closer during the Kershaw Greinke run of 2015.

    Dombrowki and the Tigers failing to get a closer during Scherzer Verlander run.

    No stones. Look at the Tigers now especially.

    I don't know how into it you are but I liked this summary:

    World Series 2016: Here's how the NL champion Chicago Cubs were built
    http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/wo...bs-were-built/

    Win or lose I like your pit bull style. Nice work with everything.
    Oh yeah man im into it. I have read a few articles about how they put this amazing team together. The article you linked is very good.Actually the article you linked is the best I've read yet.
    I didn't know about the rule 5 draft. Rondon is good. He might feel slighted because he was our closer before Chapman. They did shit on him a bit.
    I like talking shit for the lols..
    Last edited by big dick; 10-23-2016 at 11:48 PM.

  8. #7948
    Master of Props Daly's Avatar
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    Haven't seen many lines yet but unless I miss my guess there is going to be money made on blind betting all the unders tonight.

  9. #7949
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    Osweiller under 225.5
    Osweiller under 20.5
    Sanders under 69.5
    Thomas under 5.5
    Sanders under 5.5
    Hopkins under 5.5
    Anderson under 3.5

  10. #7950
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    Osweiller under 225.5
    Osweiller under 20.5
    Sanders under 69.5
    Thomas under 5.5
    Sanders under 5.5
    Hopkins under 5.5
    Anderson under 3.5

  11. #7951
    Master of Props Daly's Avatar
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    What's the difference between a "sharp" and "square" sportsbook? sportsinsights.com/sportsbook-rev…

    I really like this twitter account. I'd recommend it to degen.

     
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      Sanlmar: Thx

  12. #7952
    Master of Props Daly's Avatar
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    Over 10.5 punts -125 is a decent bet. I can easily see more than that in this game.

     
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      Tellafriend: 3

  13. #7953
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    Quote Originally Posted by Daly View Post
    Over 10.5 punts -125 is a decent bet. I can easily see more than that in this game.
    3 punts in under first four minutes.

  14. #7954
    Master of Props Daly's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Tellafriend View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Daly View Post
    Over 10.5 punts -125 is a decent bet. I can easily see more than that in this game.
    3 punts in under first four minutes.

    4

  15. #7955
    Plutonium Sanlmar's Avatar
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    Spreads don't matter

    Through 106 NFL games (7 weeks)

    95-8-3

    Winners have won outright and covered spread. 91.04%
    That's with respect to closing line
    (Am i expressing this idea correctly?)

    Only 8 times have the spreads mattered this year.

    I am still absorbing this. Historically it's like 82%

    Also, the Pats game was harsh on the books last Sunday. Huge public money and they covered. That was a very interesting line to watch and I frankly am still puzzled why it held firm in the face of the $ consensus

    For me the lesson in all this is what the line movement is telling you not the value the line offers. I have been a little too focused on the latter. This might not be a revelation to you and I have heard this before but I am finally internalizing this idea. This is more similar to equities trading than I imagined.

    Thank you Daly. Not a big or volume bettor but I am almost more fascinated by the inner workings than just picking winners. Lol, ALMOST

    Keep feeding me.

    SportsInsights is just Twitter to you? You do or don't use this service?

    Add tonight to the list. Crazy shit
    Last edited by Sanlmar; 10-24-2016 at 10:14 PM.

  16. #7956
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    Good, fuck the books.

  17. #7957
    Gold handicapme's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Daly View Post
    Over 10.5 punts -125 is a decent bet. I can easily see more than that in this game.
    Thanks for these plays dude, garbage time made the profit a smaller (just a bit over 300 vs 700ish) but a + day on a garbage game is always a good day!

    Will donate in the future to the freeroll in your honor.
    "I GOT NO TOE"

    #FreeFluffler #FreeThisGuyIsCreepy #lockupGarrett

  18. #7958
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    Quote Originally Posted by Charham View Post
    Ok I have been keeping at my value system betting a model line versus actual lines. It didn't produce any bets last week, and the one it produced the week before lost, but started season off at 7 and 1 so I am monitoring it still. This week the potential value bets are:

    GB 4 points of value (obviously this was last night)

    KC 3.5 points of value

    Indy 2.5 points of value

    Pitt 9 points of value

    Houston 2.5 points of value

    I have been trying to stick with 4 points or more of value, thus only GB and Pitt qualify. However I have been avoiding betting against NE and Brady for "value" for obvious blow out risk. Sadly I only bet a small amount on GB as the Cubs were playing and I didn't want to be distracted and I think Ill pass on betting Pitt despite the huge value given Brady blow out potential and Big Ben injury. anyone betting Pitt?
    ok not a lot of value so far this week, a little value for the Jets and Minn, so taking a hard look at those if I can get Minn -5, and Jets -2 1/2.

    on another note, I am firing on Schwarber under bet for tonight. out all season and come into the world series and hit major league pitching. I don't think so. total hits, runs and RBIS U 2. love the guy though in general, and go cubbies. here is an article on schwarber's return to a minor league game recently:http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/scout...ue-appearance/
    Last edited by Charham; 10-25-2016 at 01:15 PM.

  19. #7959
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    Quote Originally Posted by Charham View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Charham View Post
    Ok I have been keeping at my value system betting a model line versus actual lines. It didn't produce any bets last week, and the one it produced the week before lost, but started season off at 7 and 1 so I am monitoring it still. This week the potential value bets are:

    GB 4 points of value (obviously this was last night)

    KC 3.5 points of value

    Indy 2.5 points of value

    Pitt 9 points of value

    Houston 2.5 points of value

    I have been trying to stick with 4 points or more of value, thus only GB and Pitt qualify. However I have been avoiding betting against NE and Brady for "value" for obvious blow out risk. Sadly I only bet a small amount on GB as the Cubs were playing and I didn't want to be distracted and I think Ill pass on betting Pitt despite the huge value given Brady blow out potential and Big Ben injury. anyone betting Pitt?
    ok not a lot of value so far this week, a little value for the Jets and Minn, so taking a hard look at those if I can get Minn -5, and Jets -2 1/2.

    on another note, I am firing on Schwarber under bet for tonight. out all season and come into the world series and hit major league pitching. I don't think so. total hits, runs and RBIS U 2. love the guy though in general, and go cubbies. here is an article on schwarber's return to a minor league game recently:http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/scout...ue-appearance/

    Have you looked at AZ in Carolina - they have Carolina between -2.5 and -3 LOL



    AZ absolutely destroyed SEA in every part of the game and they tied. TMMLK cannot figure that line out at all. That being said AZ is a lock with the points. In addition, AZ should be the favourite by 6 or more and not the underdog.


  20. #7960
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    Quote Originally Posted by TMMLK View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Charham View Post

    ok not a lot of value so far this week, a little value for the Jets and Minn, so taking a hard look at those if I can get Minn -5, and Jets -2 1/2.

    on another note, I am firing on Schwarber under bet for tonight. out all season and come into the world series and hit major league pitching. I don't think so. total hits, runs and RBIS U 2. love the guy though in general, and go cubbies. here is an article on schwarber's return to a minor league game recently:http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/scout...ue-appearance/

    Have you looked at AZ in Carolina - they have Carolina between -2.5 and -3 LOL



    AZ absolutely destroyed SEA in every part of the game and they tied. TMMLK cannot figure that line out at all. That being said AZ is a lock with the points. In addition, AZ should be the favourite by 6 or more and not the underdog.

    It's a great point. Must be that Carolina still being pumped on former glory. 2.5 and sprnkle some ML. I like.

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