**Official UFC thread**

[sonatine]

Maybe we can have the first ever intergender fight.. CM Punk vs Cyborg I mean Cyborg is bitching bout 5 lousy lbs.. Let her come up to 170 she shouldn't have any trouble with that. Of course Id also have to give the edge to Cyborg over Punk as well..

Early line Cyborg -220

I would take a loan out on my 401k to stack up on Cyborg here at -220

[4Dragons]

If anyone is looking for a live dog, Bigfoot Silva at +360 is your ticket.

Hes fighting Nelson. Both are 1-4 in their last 5 fights. Bigfoot however has been getting KO'd like fucking crazy and thats why the line is so severe. Thing is, Bigfoot is getting KO'd by total head hunters. Nelson has had one KO in over 3 years. He also has tiny little t-rex arms and hes going to need to close the distance with Silva and somehow reach that giant melon to score a KO.

Now.. chances are just fine that he will body Silva in the first round and that will be that. And if this was 2012 Nelson I'd never question his abilities. But Nelson has looked like cold runny shit for his last five (5) fights and if Silva can use push kicks and lateral movement to avoid a Nelson blitz in the first 120 seconds, I genuinely believe he will score more on the judges cards and outmaneuver Nelson against the cage, which is where Nelson always takes his fights when he gasses.

Lastly....speaking of judges cards..... the fight is in Brazil.

Im not going to bat an eyelash if I dont win this bet, but I feel really, really strongly that there is enough value in Silva at +360 on his home territory fighting a freshly unroided Nelson to justify a strong play here, so Im basically stacking my Johnson and Brunson winnings here, and maybe MAYBE I'll arb slightly if the Nelson rd 1 TKO prop strikes my fancy.

That Brazil thing and it going the distance gives you like 10 outs on the bet i'd say. Not really free money because i'm thinking Roy by crucifix in the 2nd, but if it goes all the way you are looking at a full freezer of pot pies for months.

[sonatine]

I havent seen Nelson answer the bell in fighting form for a second round since 2012.

Barnett literally decisioned Nelson after spending 3 rounds with his back on the fence less than 12 months ago.

[4Dragons]

I havent seen Nelson answer the bell in fighting form for a second round since 2012.

Barnett literally decisioned Nelson after spending 3 rounds with his back on the fence less than 12 months ago.

True he gets the gas face by the early 2nd, but side control bigfoot would end poor roy boy so more outs imo.

Oh and Cyborg would literally throw Punk out of the fucking ring lamenting 'bye bye meatball' ala Rocky.

[sonatine]

Yup, Nelson is good. He has a lot of ways to finish this fight, but far fewer if Silva doesnt do anything stupid.

[OSA]

If anyone is looking for a live dog, Bigfoot Silva at +360 is your ticket.

Hes fighting Nelson. Both are 1-4 in their last 5 fights. Bigfoot however has been getting KO'd like fucking crazy and thats why the line is so severe. Thing is, Bigfoot is getting KO'd by total head hunters. Nelson has had one KO in over 3 years. He also has tiny little t-rex arms and hes going to need to close the distance with Silva and somehow reach that giant melon to score a KO.

Now.. chances are just fine that he will body Silva in the first round and that will be that. And if this was 2012 Nelson I'd never question his abilities. But Nelson has looked like cold runny shit for his last five (5) fights and if Silva can use push kicks and lateral movement to avoid a Nelson blitz in the first 120 seconds, I genuinely believe he will score more on the judges cards and outmaneuver Nelson against the cage, which is where Nelson always takes his fights when he gasses.

Lastly....speaking of judges cards..... the fight is in Brazil.

Im not going to bat an eyelash if I dont win this bet, but I feel really, really strongly that there is enough value in Silva at +360 on his home territory fighting a freshly unroided Nelson to justify a strong play here, so Im basically stacking my Johnson and Brunson winnings here, and maybe MAYBE I'll arb slightly if the Nelson rd 1 TKO prop strikes my fancy.

That Brazil thing and it going the distance gives you like 10 outs on the bet i'd say. Not really free money because i'm thinking Roy by crucifix in the 2nd, but if it goes all the way you are looking at a full freezer of pot pies for months.

Yo, tine, wtf is up with my nigga Hall. I didn't see it but KO in the first? I don't get it. He is looking about as soft as Drake on V-day.

[sonatine]

That Brazil thing and it going the distance gives you like 10 outs on the bet i'd say. Not really free money because i'm thinking Roy by crucifix in the 2nd, but if it goes all the way you are looking at a full freezer of pot pies for months.

Yo, tine, wtf is up with my nigga Hall. I didn't see it but KO in the first? I don't get it. He is looking about as soft as Drake on V-day.

Brunson is a beast and it was a really, really questionable stoppage.

And lets not forget that Hall is very weak in first rounds, he usually needs to be pressured into performing. On top of which, Brunson wasnt a marquise name and Hall seems to never quite give a shit against anyone who he doesnt perceive as an apex predator. Halls biggest enemy is his own head and it always will be. IMO he needs to spend a year in the forest punching trees or something, because hes never going to realize his potential when hes trapped between his ears.

[OSA]

Yo, tine, wtf is up with my nigga Hall. I didn't see it but KO in the first? I don't get it. He is looking about as soft as Drake on V-day.

Brunson is a beast and it was a really, really questionable stoppage.

And lets not forget that Hall is very weak in first rounds, he usually needs to be pressured into performing. On top of which, Brunson wasnt a marquise name and Hall seems to never quite give a shit against anyone who he doesnt perceive as an apex predator. Halls biggest enemy is his own head and it always will be. IMO he needs to spend a year in the forest punching trees or something, because hes never going to realize his potential when hes trapped between his ears.

You have said this before but Brunson was 15-3. Hall has so much potential is bullshit he cant figure it out

[sonatine]

Brunson is a beast and it was a really, really questionable stoppage.

And lets not forget that Hall is very weak in first rounds, he usually needs to be pressured into performing. On top of which, Brunson wasnt a marquise name and Hall seems to never quite give a shit against anyone who he doesnt perceive as an apex predator. Halls biggest enemy is his own head and it always will be. IMO he needs to spend a year in the forest punching trees or something, because hes never going to realize his potential when hes trapped between his ears.

You have said this before but Brunson was 15-3. Hall has so much potential is bullshit he cant figure it out

Its a weird point but I see it as the truth; its not so much the ranking or the score that Hall keys in on, its the celebrity status. Like that seems like such a totally insane claim to make about Hall but it really seems to be a pattern with him. When hes in there with someone he looks up to, he blooms. Brunson ... is a bit of a nobody. He is on a tear, he maybe has the heaviest hands in the division right now, but aint no one buying Brunson t-shirts, so Hall just didnt find his stride in time.

Now, an alternate but possibly complimentary theory is that Hall suffers from the same syndrome that used to plague Cowboy and a few other big names, that he needs to get 'roughed up' before a switch in him flicks on. And with someone like Brunson.. its like getting nicked by a .50 caliber rifle. There is no such thing. If a .50 caliber round touches you, the energy displacement will pretty much take whatever it touches off. If Brunson hurts you, you're pretty much done. Same with Rumble and literally no one else I can think of except maybe MAYBE Derek Lewis although the votes arent quite in for him yet.

So yeah not a great matchup for Hall and we are getting to the point where there arent many matchups that are great for him, least of all because he cant put together enough wins to get significant opponents.

But I dont know man, that stoppage... I feel like Mousasi did 10x the damage Brunson did over the course of their first round, but Brunson's TKO was a lot more dramatic..? In any case, Hall was likely going to get finished but its a real fuckin shame that we will never know for sure. I would have really liked to see that 2nd round.

Its real fucked up, that guys sitch.

[sonatine]

The prop lines are in and Im going to take out a bit of insurance with half a unit on Nelson rd 2 at +600 and Im also going to put half a unit on the fight being a draw at +10000.

Again its likely Nelson will end this in rd 1 and the line reflects that, but if either one of them get a takedown (or one of them just kinda falls over) in rd 1 then we almost certainly see a rd 2, and if they stay standing for rd 2 then there is a profoundly good chance that rd 3 is scored a 10-10 round due to total inaction.

Also put half a unit on Nelson rd 3 at +1200 in case Silva literally dies.

[sonatine]

People need to stop with armbar attempts. Honestly when was the last time anyone tapped out to an armbar.

[ftpjesus]

People need to stop with armbar attempts. Honestly when was the last time anyone tapped out to an armbar.

Up until the last 3 Rousey fights where she KOd 2 and got KTFO by Holly Holm every chick she fought tapped out to an armbar.. She was pretty much the armbar Queen until suddenly she developed her striking ability finally.. Other then Rousey cant think of too many Armbar subs in the last several years

[Crowe Diddly]

People need to stop with armbar attempts. Honestly when was the last time anyone tapped out to an armbar.

Forget just arm bars, how many submissions in the UFC in the last year involved anything but the neck? Gotta be in the low single digits.

[sonatine]

People need to stop with armbar attempts. Honestly when was the last time anyone tapped out to an armbar.

Up until the last 3 Rousey fights where she KOd 2 and got KTFO by Holly Holm every chick she fought tapped out to an armbar.. She was pretty much the armbar Queen until suddenly she developed her striking ability finally.. Other then Rousey cant think of too many Armbar subs in the last several years

im talking about professional high level mma.



not ... whatever it is exactly that women are doing in the cage these days.


it actually makes me physically ill that im in a thread where i have to spell that out.

[sonatine]

People need to stop with armbar attempts. Honestly when was the last time anyone tapped out to an armbar.

Forget just arm bars, how many submissions in the UFC in the last year involved anything but the neck? Gotta be in the low single digits.

i mean, leg/ankle locks have been solved for like a decade. thats like blue/purple belt shit.

but people do get keylocked still tho but really thats the type of thing where they are half dead and in a totally resignable position.


and yet still we see people with full mount trying to grab a fuckin arm and i cant remember the last goddamned time they didnt get reversed and end up on their back.

[Crowe Diddly]

Forget just arm bars, how many submissions in the UFC in the last year involved anything but the neck? Gotta be in the low single digits.

i mean, leg/ankle locks have been solved for like a decade. thats like blue/purple belt shit.

but people do get keylocked still tho but really thats the type of thing where they are half dead and in a totally resignable position.


and yet still we see people with full mount trying to grab a fuckin arm and i cant remember the last goddamned time they didnt get reversed and end up on their back.

Just ran through the year's worth of cards and finishes, and this is pretty sick. Tons of rear nakeds, d'arce chokes, brabos, guillotines, even a couple neck cranks. The only, ONLY, non-neck submissions I could find this year were both on Fight Night 90, the night Eddie Alvarez won the title. Gilbert Burns beat Lukasz Sajewski via armbar in the 3rd fight of the night, and in the 4th fight, Felipe Arantes beat Jerrod Sanders the same way, also armbar. Only 2 this year I can find that didn't involve the neck, and they came within half an hour of each other. That shit's nuts. I could have missed something obv, but if I did, it would only be 1 or 2 fights.


wouldn't be too surprised to see some leglocks pop up again soon enough, tho. now that a lot of submission grappling events allow them again, all the John Danaher guys are running roughshod over all the bjj players who left that shit behind years ago and have to re-learn all the old shit they never really knew in the first place.

[sonatine]

SILVAS BEARD IS GOD

[Hockey Guy]

WTF???

Did Big Country just kick Big John??

[sonatine]

If anyone is looking for a live dog, Bigfoot Silva at +360 is your ticket.

Hes fighting Nelson. Both are 1-4 in their last 5 fights. Bigfoot however has been getting KO'd like fucking crazy and thats why the line is so severe. Thing is, Bigfoot is getting KO'd by total head hunters. Nelson has had one KO in over 3 years. He also has tiny little t-rex arms and hes going to need to close the distance with Silva and somehow reach that giant melon to score a KO.

Now.. chances are just fine that he will body Silva in the first round and that will be that. And if this was 2012 Nelson I'd never question his abilities. But Nelson has looked like cold runny shit for his last five (5) fights and if Silva can use push kicks and lateral movement to avoid a Nelson blitz in the first 120 seconds, I genuinely believe he will score more on the judges cards and outmaneuver Nelson against the cage, which is where Nelson always takes his fights when he gasses.

Lastly....speaking of judges cards..... the fight is in Brazil.

Im not going to bat an eyelash if I dont win this bet, but I feel really, really strongly that there is enough value in Silva at +360 on his home territory fighting a freshly unroided Nelson to justify a strong play here, so Im basically stacking my Johnson and Brunson winnings here, and maybe MAYBE I'll arb slightly if the Nelson rd 1 TKO prop strikes my fancy.

$100.00 $170.00 $270.00 Win 9/24/16 10:30pm UFC Fighting 1201 Antonio Silva/Roy Nelson Over 1½ +170*
$50.00 $300.00 $350.00 Win 9/24/16 11:30pm MMA Props Fighting 1223 Nelson wins in round 2 +600* vs Any other result



Made a very thin profit. No complaints, it was a solid sweat.

[sonatine]

All-in on Dodson at -120.