*** Official Flying Stupidity Wagering thread ***

[Sanlmar]

Hope the Tigers sweep and Boston has an apoplectic fit. Lew needs to see what it feels like to win.

BTW, Lew & BNP need to recruit Daly and fire up a Sports Huddle broadcast. I'm in to spout my hate if this happens.

Shitty day at the books IMO.

Tablet - Baseball - MLB - 960 Detroit Tigers/Boston Red Sox under 10½ +100 for Game
Win

Tablet - Baseball - MLB - 959 Detroit Tigers +104 for Game
Win

Tablet - Baseball - MLB - 978 Chicago Cubs -1½ -115 for Game
Win

Even the Cubs should crush this White Sox stand in for Sale.

Edit:
7 pitches in and Sawks go yard on Fulmer. You're on probation BnP. Wonder if this kid pitched to any real offensive iron yet. Too late now.

Added live 2nd inning Sox up 1-0. @ -130
DETROIT TIGERS at BOSTON RED SOX Run Line TIGERS +1.5
Win

See how rapidly this spins out of control?

I am shutting this operation. GL

[Dan Druff]

Should have been 5-0 yesterday.

Toronto/SD was 4-4 after 9, but instead of 1 run deciding it in extras, a gaggle of rins pushed across on both sides in the 12th.

Oh well. During this run I've been fortunate in not having expected wins get screwed, aside from this one and that 7th inning rainout.m

Still went 4-1 yesterday including those 2 big dog bets.

Now 23-6-1 since July 5, and have won every pick over +120 except one.

Will post today's picks shortly.

[Daly]

Went with FULMer under 5.5 (already started, sorry)
And Bum Under 6.5.

[BeerAndPoker]

7 pitches in and Sawks go yard on Fulmer. You're on probation BnP. Wonder if this kid pitched to any real offensive iron yet. Too late now.

That was the only real mistake he made for 5 innings though. Fulmer pitch count looks good. The team is really watching that for him being a rookie not to ruin his arm in his rookie year.

If Fulmer wants to log a bunch of innings that means ground ball strategy and throwing his good slider over trying to gas teams with fast balls so I like Daly's under K's in most Fulmer starts,

Tigers just haven't got to Rodriguez yet. They are without Maybin again for the 4th game in a row today who has been great for the team this year.

As I type this James McCann just hit a bomb to make it 3-1.

[Dan Druff]

Went with FULMer under 5.5 (already started, sorry)
And Bum Under 6.5.

Got Bumgarner at U7.5 -105 on Bovada, but they would only let me bet 262.50 to win 250, rather than 525 to win 500.

Fulmer looking good so far.

[Dan Druff]

Only pick for remaining games today (didn't realize so many started so early):

Pittsburgh (Cole) -135 vs. Seattle (Paxton)

[Daly]

Went with FULMer under 5.5 (already started, sorry)
And Bum Under 6.5.

Got Bumgarner at U7.5 -105 on Bovada, but they would only let me bet 262.50 to win 250, rather than 525 to win 500.

Fulmer looking good so far.

Yeah Fulmer cashed but Bumgarner K'd the pitcher 3 times and managed to get Votto once. That's a recipie for a loss and guess what? It screwed us.

[Dan Druff]

Review of picks since 7/5/16:

Wins in green
Losses in red
No-action (rainout, tie) in black

7/5 Philadelphia (Eflin) -125 vs. Braves (Foltynewicz) - WIN
7/5 KC (Young) at Toronto (Dickey) - OVER 9.5 -115 - WIN
7/6 LA Angels (Weaver) at Tampa (Smyly) - Over 8.5 -120 - WIN
7/8 Phillies (Velasquez) +145 at Colorado (Gray) - WIN
7/8 Tampa (Archer) at Boston (O'Sullivan) - Over 10 -105 - WIN
7/8 Arizona (Corbin) at San Fran (Samardzija) - Over 7.5 -110 - WIN
7/9 Cardinals (Martinez) -1.5 +100 at Brewers (Anderson) - WIN
7/10 Phillies (Eflin) +182 at Rockies (Chatwood) - WIN
7/10 Phillies (Eflin) at Rockies (Chatwood) - Under 13 - TIE
(All Star Break)
7/15 Boston (Wright) +128 at NY Yankees (Pineda) - WIN
7/15 Baltimore (Gallardo) at Tampa (Archer) - Over 8.5 -105 - LOSE
7/16 Milwaukee (Nelson) -105 at Cincinnati (Lamb) - WIN
7/16 White Sox (Shields) +141 at Angles (Shoemaker) - LOSE
7/16 Boston (E. Rodriguez) at NY Yankees (Sabathia) - Over 9.5 -120 - LOSE
7/17 Texas (Hamels) +128 at Chicago (Lackey) - WIN
7/19 Texas (Lohse) at Angels (Linecum) - Over 10 -115 - WIN
7/19 Baltimore (Worley) at Yankees (Eovaldi) - Over 9 -110 - LOSE
7/19 Atlanta (Jenkins) +148 at Cincinnati (Reed) - WIN
7/20 Phillies (Hellickson) +123 vs Marlins (Chen) - WIN
7/20 Toronto (Stroman) at Arizona (Corbin) - Over 9 +100 - WIN
7/21 Detroit (Pelfrey) at Chicago White Sox (Shields) - Under 10.5 +100 - RAINED OUT BOT 7TH, WAS LIKELY WIN AS SCORE WAS 2-1
7/22 Mets (Verrett) +150 at Marlins (Conley) - WIN
7/22 SF (Bumgarner) +101 at Yankees (Tanaka) - LOSE
7/23 SF (Cueto) -113 at Yankees (Nova) - WIN
7/23 Texas (Hamels) -118 at KC (Ventura) - WIN
7/24 Mets (Matz) -120 at Marlins - WIN (only pick not posted to PFA before game)
7/25 St. Louis (Martinez) +163 at NY Mets (Syndergaard) - RAINED OUT
7/25 St. Louis (Martinez) at NY Mets (Syndergaard) - UNDER 7 +105 - RAINED OUT
7/26 St. Louis (Martinez) +154 at NY Mets (Syndergaard) GAME 1 - WIN
7/26 San Diego (Cashner) at Toronto (Stroman) - Under 9.5 -120 - LOSE
7/26 Arizona (Corbin) at Milwaukee (Garza) - Over 9.5 -105 - WIN
7/26 Atlanta (Harrell) +185 at Minn (Santana) - WIN
7/26 Atlanta (Harrell) at Minn (Santana) - UNDER 9.5 -115 - WIN
7/27 Pittsburgh (Cole) -135 vs. Seattle (Paxton) - WIN

Overall:

24 wins
6 losses
1 tie
1 rainout (under bet) which should have been a win but got screwed in 7th
2 rainouts before game time

9-1 record in underdog moneyline bets of +123 or higher.

14 out of 15 days I bet (where action wasn't completely canceled by rain), I was a winner. Only losing day was 7/16.

Only one bet placed on favorite odds beyond -125, and that was -135. So this wasn't a matter of winning huge favorites. There weren't any.

[Daly]

Starting to see even more NFL/NCAA futures/props offered. I'm going to try and look at some more today.

I don't think it's a "lock" but in no way shape or form should Big Ben be +600 for most passing yards. I price it closer to +300.

As an extension to my earlier post on Arizona over 10 wins I also like will make playoffs at -170.

[Sanlmar]

Nice Druff but are you profitable?

Willing to offer you a package. My avatar with your face photshopped in by 4D. We could do a closed end lease.

The offer is contingent on Lewfathers approval of these changes.

edit:
action bet

Description:
Tablet - Baseball - MLB - 914 Boston Red Sox/Los Angeles Angels over 9 -115 for Game

angels (weaver) sucks
sawks (price) still got my issues with him i am stubborn

Sawks gonna rock Weaver. Little help from Price. The play was 8.5 but it wont fall. If it does we tool up.

Sawks need to keep from looking ahead to the Todgers later in week. Its like an early Christmas for them but the fun is in the anticipation.

[G0lfer]

Review of picks since 7/5/16:

Wins in green
Losses in red
No-action (rainout, tie) in black

7/5 Philadelphia (Eflin) -125 vs. Braves (Foltynewicz) - WIN
7/5 KC (Young) at Toronto (Dickey) - OVER 9.5 -115 - WIN
7/6 LA Angels (Weaver) at Tampa (Smyly) - Over 8.5 -120 - WIN
7/8 Phillies (Velasquez) +145 at Colorado (Gray) - WIN
7/8 Tampa (Archer) at Boston (O'Sullivan) - Over 10 -105 - WIN
7/8 Arizona (Corbin) at San Fran (Samardzija) - Over 7.5 -110 - WIN
7/9 Cardinals (Martinez) -1.5 +100 at Brewers (Anderson) - WIN
7/10 Phillies (Eflin) +182 at Rockies (Chatwood) - WIN
7/10 Phillies (Eflin) at Rockies (Chatwood) - Under 13 - TIE
(All Star Break)
7/15 Boston (Wright) +128 at NY Yankees (Pineda) - WIN
7/15 Baltimore (Gallardo) at Tampa (Archer) - Over 8.5 -105 - LOSE
7/16 Milwaukee (Nelson) -105 at Cincinnati (Lamb) - WIN
7/16 White Sox (Shields) +141 at Angles (Shoemaker) - LOSE
7/16 Boston (E. Rodriguez) at NY Yankees (Sabathia) - Over 9.5 -120 - LOSE
7/17 Texas (Hamels) +128 at Chicago (Lackey) - WIN
7/19 Texas (Lohse) at Angels (Linecum) - Over 10 -115 - WIN
7/19 Baltimore (Worley) at Yankees (Eovaldi) - Over 9 -110 - LOSE
7/19 Atlanta (Jenkins) +148 at Cincinnati (Reed) - WIN
7/20 Phillies (Hellickson) +123 vs Marlins (Chen) - WIN
7/20 Toronto (Stroman) at Arizona (Corbin) - Over 9 +100 - WIN
7/21 Detroit (Pelfrey) at Chicago White Sox (Shields) - Under 10.5 +100 - RAINED OUT BOT 7TH, WAS LIKELY WIN AS SCORE WAS 2-1
7/22 Mets (Verrett) +150 at Marlins (Conley) - WIN
7/22 SF (Bumgarner) +101 at Yankees (Tanaka) - LOSE
7/23 SF (Cueto) -113 at Yankees (Nova) - WIN
7/23 Texas (Hamels) -118 at KC (Ventura) - WIN
7/24 Mets (Matz) -120 at Marlins - WIN (only pick not posted to PFA before game)
7/25 St. Louis (Martinez) +163 at NY Mets (Syndergaard) - RAINED OUT
7/25 St. Louis (Martinez) at NY Mets (Syndergaard) - UNDER 7 +105 - RAINED OUT
7/26 St. Louis (Martinez) +154 at NY Mets (Syndergaard) GAME 1 - WIN
7/26 San Diego (Cashner) at Toronto (Stroman) - Under 9.5 -120 - LOSE
7/26 Arizona (Corbin) at Milwaukee (Garza) - Over 9.5 -105 - WIN
7/26 Atlanta (Harrell) +185 at Minn (Santana) - WIN
7/26 Atlanta (Harrell) at Minn (Santana) - UNDER 9.5 -115 - WIN
7/27 Pittsburgh (Cole) -135 vs. Seattle (Paxton) - WIN

Overall:

24 wins
6 losses
1 tie
1 rainout (under bet) which should have been a win but got screwed in 7th
2 rainouts before game time

9-1 record in underdog moneyline bets of +123 or higher.

14 out of 15 days I bet (where action wasn't completely canceled by rain), I was a winner. Only losing day was 7/16.

Only one bet placed on favorite odds beyond -125, and that was -135. So this wasn't a matter of winning huge favorites. There weren't any.

Great run Druff! Anyone have any games they like today?

[Dan Druff]

Today:

White Sox (Sale) +118 at Cubs (Lackey)
Phillies (Nola) -123 at Atlanta (Wisler)

Note that Sale is back from suspension for cutting up uniforms, and might not be himself.

Considered betting Cards against Marlins Fernandez, but my second book is gone so I only have Bovada, which is giving me a shit line.

If anyone is using a reliable local book based out of LA or Vegas, please PM me if you can get me in.

[Daly]

I just want to say congratulations to @Smiflorida!!!!!

You popped your cherry you SOB.

hey just got this from Bovada:

We're writing this message to inform you our Book Managers, after careful deliberation and investigation, have decided to adjust your wagering limits which may vary from market to market.

We assure you we didn't make this decision in haste.

Should this this decision mean we do not meet your needs as a Sportsbook, please contact our Customer Service Department and we'll be happy to process a withdrawal for your current balance.

[Sanlmar]

I just want to say congratulations to @Smiflorida!!!!!

You popped your cherry you SOB.

hey just got this from Bovada:

We're writing this message to inform you our Book Managers, after careful deliberation and investigation, have decided to adjust your wagering limits which may vary from market to market.

We assure you we didn't make this decision in haste.

Should this this decision mean we do not meet your needs as a Sportsbook, please contact our Customer Service Department and we'll be happy to process a withdrawal for your current balance.

Congratulations.

I would print that out and frame it.

[smiflorida]

Thanks everyone!

Philly is up 5-0 in the 1st inning...nice.

[snake_in_the_ass]

Today:

White Sox (Sale) +118 at Cubs (Lackey)
Phillies (Nola) -123 at Atlanta (Wisler)

Note that Sale is back from suspension for cutting up uniforms, and might not be himself.

Considered betting Cards against Marlins Fernandez, but my second book is gone so I only have Bovada, which is giving me a shit line.

If anyone is using a reliable local book based out of LA or Vegas, please PM me if you can get me in.

My local book hasn't paid me for last week's winnings and I am destroying him this week. Wonder if he stiffs me.

[Dan Druff]

Gotta go with my gut when I'm hot.

Huge dog on Cards wins.

In the meantime, Philly might blow a 7-0 lead, and the White Sox can't score.

[Dan Druff]

1-1 yesterday for a slight loss.

Today I go back to an old mainstay (though i haven't done as well with it as you guys), the Sawks over.

Boston (Porcello) at Angels (Lincecum) - over 9 -120

[Sanlmar]

At this point in the season everything seems pretty well nuked out. There is less opportunity to spot errors. At least that was my thought this morning.

Decided not to try grab value or be clever. It's not working for me anyway although it is for Druff.

So I did something I haven't this season: bet a huge favorite. Money is money.

Cubs up 5-0 top of 6th
Tablet - Baseball - MLB - 980 Chicago Cubs -178 for Game

Tablet - Baseball - MLB - 980 Chicago Cubs -174 for 1st 5 Innings

I am interested in Sawks over. However, my thought is that crazy field in the evening just eats runs up. Any thoughts?

Chef P is pretty decent for Sawks too.
Lincecum is special though.

[simpdog]

Jays/Balt under 9 today.