President 2016

[Brittney Griner's Clit]

Anyhow i'll take that as a "no" and that you're too much of a puss to put your money where your mouth is when it comes to trump being the next POTUS. Gotta say your refusal to man up makes it pretty hard to take any of your pro-Trump posts serious. Guess you're just trolling instead of preaching the true glory of winning that the donald gonna bring all of us. It's a real shame to see your passion is all a farce.

Why would he take an even money bet on trump against an anonymous person from the internet, when he could bet the field vs hillary at a very reputable sportsbook and get well over +200?

Have you heard of pride? If you are confident enough in your man then odds shouldn't matter.

[TheXFactor]

At least we will get rid of these motherfuckers once Donald Trump becomes President.

[simpdog]

At least we will get rid of these motherfuckers once Donald Trump becomes President.

We will gladly trade these for Bieber and a first round draft pick.

[MumblesBadly]

Trump was victorious thanks to the uneducated wing of the Republican Party, as his 1-liners sounded appealing to them. The religious nuts didn't negate him very much, because some of them are also the uneducated morons, so a sizable number of them still voted for him even though he otherwise doesn't align with their social beliefs.

[rum dick]

thesidedish: SCAM MUCH???


Dude what the fuck is wrong with you? If you don't want to make the bet because most likely you know you'll lose the $100 then just say so but don't start tossing around false accusations about scamming, especially on this site. For the record, I've made numerous bets with longtime posters here and on NWP and on Boris and on Skatz and I've paid every single time I've lost a bet. So get outta here with your bullshit.

Also, that was a total trump move on your part, ie you get a simple question you don't like and instead of answering it you throw out some retarded and blatantly false nonsense.

[Mintjewlips]

At least we will get rid of these motherfuckers once Donald Trump becomes President.

Maybe al Sharpton can fight for the disenfranchised black people of canada

[thesidedish]

thesidedish: SCAM MUCH???


Dude what the fuck is wrong with you? If you don't want to make the bet because most likely you know you'll lose the $100 then just say so but don't start tossing around false accusations about scamming, especially on this site. For the record, I've made numerous bets with longtime posters here and on NWP and on Boris and on Skatz and I've paid every single time I've lost a bet. So get outta here with your bullshit.

Also, that was a total trump move on your part, ie you get a simple question you don't like and instead of answering it you throw out some retarded and blatantly false nonsense.

wow dude ur a fuckin loser. No sense of humor like most worthless, talentless anti trumpers.

And another thing, it really is a fascinating, amazing, telling thing that I have not seen 1 man in THE ENTIRE WORLD that hates Trump that actually commands respect. So hmmmm who should really be in charge of electing leaders?

[4Dragons]

NATE SILVER: 'We basically got the Republican race wrong'

In September 2015, writer and statistician Nate Silver urged people to "calm down" about the possibility of Donald Trump winning the Republican presidential nomination.


Two months later, he wrote that the media should "stop freaking out about Donald Trump's polls" and that Trump's odds were "higher than 0 but (considerably) less than 20 percent."
Six months after that, after Ted Cruz had dropped out of the race but before John Kasich had done so, Silver wrote: "Donald Trump is going to win the Republican nomination."


"Other than being early skeptics of Jeb Bush, we basically got the Republican race wrong," Silver wrote.
It's easy to cringe at how, in August, for instance, Silver outlined the "six stages of doom" that he foresaw for Trump in the coming months — and how, in December, he updated the post to note that "the most difficult hurdles between Donald Trump and the Republican presidential nomination are still to come."


So how did the site that prides itself on a numbers-based approach end up just another late-stage Trump bear with its tail between its legs? Silver has some ideas.


For one, some of Silver's earliest Trump doomsday analysis was, by its own admission, in line with the theories of "The Party Decides," a theory that posits candidates must be electable and believers in the party's positions. By January, Silver was rereading the book: Either the book's hypothesis that functioning parties nominate strategic candidates is wrong, he said then, or the Republican Party is not a functioning one.



But Silver isn't giving up on "The Party Decides" quite yet. So when, on Wednesday, Silver admitted that "in Trump, the Republican Party may have a candidate who fails on both counts," he unsurprisingly also argued for the "failings of the Republican Party as an institution."
Silver wrote:
To me, the most surprising part of Trump's nomination — which is to say, the part I think I got wrongest — is that Trump won the nomination despite having all types of deviations from conservative orthodoxy. He seemed wobbly on all parts of Reagan's three-legged stool: economic policy (he largely opposes free trade and once advocated for a wealth tax and single-payer health care), social policy (consider his constant flip-flopping over abortion), and foreign policy (he openly mocked the Bush administration's handling of the Iraq War, which is still fairly popular among Republicans).



But Republican institutional failure alone is only one of

Embedded Tweet

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/726781324254654465 of Silver's analysis, which simultaneously addressed Trump's success and Silver's (predictive) failure.


The other two components are the incredible volume of media coverage of Trump and the tribal nature of Republican primary voters. On the latter, Silver said that Trump's appeal to "cultural grievance" worked.
"It's a point in favor of those who see politics as being governed by cultural identity," he wrote, "as opposed to carefully calibrating one's position on a left-right spectrum."


Statistical analysis is always still analysis and, as such, requires some assumptions. And though he didn't address it specifically in his post on Wednesday, Silver said in November that a statistical approach to presidential-campaign prediction is a hard problem because there's only so much data.
Perhaps Silver's most prescient prediction came in November: "Unprecedented events can occur with some regularity."

Wrongest? Guy is so off kilter he's now making Trumpism's.

[Sanlmar]

I grew tired of Nate Silver long ago.

Not just the election.

[4Dragons]

I grew tired of Nate Silver long ago.

Not just the election.

That post is for the 3 Nate nut huggers that read this thread.

[hongkonger]

I grew tired of Nate Silver long ago.

Not just the election.

That post is for the 3 Nate nut huggers that read this thread.

I guess Trump was a black swan, so for more on that we can turn to Nassim Nicholas Taleb, who like Silver is overrated and full of himself and who managed to parlay a lucky guess into being paid to keep guessing about other things.

[thesidedish]

I THINK ITS SAFE TO SAY RUM DICK IS SPINNING LIKE A TOP.

I can't for the life of me try to make sense what hes doing between all his posts and reps in the last couple pages

[Pooh]

I THINK ITS SAFE TO SAY RUM DICK IS SPINNING LIKE A TOP.

I can't for the life of me try to make sense what hes doing between all his posts and reps in the last couple pages

Leave rum dick alone. He's one of the good guys here despite his political beliefs. Don't hold that against him.

[Pooh]

I love how Druff thinks that only retards and religious freaks like Trump yet the guy hasn't lost a fucking county in the past six states. He makes it sound like Trump is just a passing fad like the godfather pizza n-word guy four years ago. Druff lives in a little bubble in the most libtard douche state in the country so obviously he doesn't understand what is going on in the real world. I know people with a hell of a lot more money and education than Druff who voted Trump without a gun to their head.

Please keep in mind Druff is wealthy because he got lucky in poker. He didn't necessarily earn it like other members of his family. God bless the guy but without poker he's just another socially awkward computer nerd making $90k a year.

[monsterj]

I love how Druff thinks that only retards and religious freaks like Trump yet the guy hasn't lost a fucking county in the past six states. He makes it sound like Trump is just a passing fad like the godfather pizza n-word guy four years ago. Druff lives in a little bubble in the most libtard douche state in the country so obviously he doesn't understand what is going on in the real world. I know people with a hell of a lot more money and education than Druff who voted Trump without a gun to their head.

Please keep in mind Druff is wealthy because he got lucky in poker. He didn't necessarily earn it like other members of his family. God bless the guy but without poker he's just another socially awkward computer nerd making $90k a year.

Only idiots vote for Trump. Lots of idiots with money, which is how Druff made his money. (voting for HRC is also idiotic).

[Pooh]

Thank you mumbles. Heard you on radio last night. Don't think Drex actually gets you yet.

[ftpjesus]

Heres some food for thought folks that cuts to the core of the issue of whether you like Trump or dislike him. Hillary CAN NOT be allowed to win in November PERIOD.

[monsterj]

Heres some food for thought folks that cuts to the core of the issue of whether you like Trump or dislike him. Hillary CAN NOT be allowed to win in November PERIOD.

Trump is not a conservative, hell, he is probably more liberal than Hilary!

[tyde]

The TRUMP train is steamrolling

Deal with it

if you're voting for Hillary, you are a cretin and mentally incompetent

Oh and Sean Hannity is GOD

[GambleBotsSatire]

Dr. Savage>Hannity and it is not even close