Originally Posted by big dick
https://twitter.com/SportsInsights/status/727246669847379972
https://twitter.com/SportsInsights/status/727246669847379972
thanks. Sounds exciting
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"Donk down, that’s what you say to someone after they have lost 28K straight?" - Phil Hellmuth, online
Weird shit going down in sports.
It's difficult to explain to Americans just how unlikely Leicester winning the league was. One measure is that a leading bookmaker chain made them 5000-1 to win at the start of the season. They took 47 bets, mostly just £10 or £20. Tomorrow people will be collecting £50,000 and £100,000 wins.
Rams SB 34 win was 300-1 preseason.
That was the longest odds on American soil that I can find.
How in the FUCK do you even offer 5,000 to 1?? The fucking BROWNS are 200-1 to win the damn SB this year.
It apparently cost the books about 11.5m in payouts.
Leafs winning the cup next year wouldn't even be comparable.
It was a hugely profitable result for the bookies so they're pushing stories of little guys winning big to hide the fact. Ladbrokes (the chain I mentioned above) said their payout was £3m so a total of £11.5m for the industry sounds extremely plausible. Of course they took many times this amount in bets on the obvious choices but they're keeping quiet about that.
The Premiership isn't salary capped nor does it have any sort of handicapping system. Rich owners can just buy as many good players as they like and try to buy the title. Although Leicester's owners are rich they haven't spent big money on players and tended to go for scrappy journeyman types rather than big names. The Premiership league is 3 for a win, 1 for a draw so the big teams (Man United, Man City, Liverpool, Chelsea, Arsenal) tend to rack up so many wins that it's almost impossible for the smaller teams to challenge for the title. Not this season. Notably the probable runners-up will be Tottenham who, while more fancied than Leicester, would have been expected to finish around 5th or 6th.
Leicester have played well but have been helped by all the big clubs simultaneously under-performing. There's no clear reason why this happened. Perhaps the ridiculously inflated salaries the big clubs pay have finally been shown to be poor value for money.
late in the season, the 2011 Cardinals were almost 1000-1. http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/ba...ticle-1.969071
some more here: http://espn.go.com/espn/feature/stor...sports-history
By now you know Leicester was 5000:1 to win the EPL before the year. Here are other current odds at roughly 5000:1.
The other factor is how many other teams were they competing against at those odds?
Cardinals in 2011 takes the cake before this one at 1000-1, although it was in season.
Any college football, going against 100 other teams. Same with college basketball. You are going to get some crazy odds there.
I would bet they were in the pool of the fewest teams or a small number relative to others at least, along with having 5000-1 or whatever.
Im watching people celebrate right now on Periscope in Leicester. The roads are still packed and people are all out in the streets.
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People always gravitate towards the favorites. I guarantee the books made a fucking killing this year on these future bets.
Vegas would love a Browns SB win this year preceded by a twins World Series.
In 2013/14 Leicester weren't in the premier league at all. Last February, they were favourites to be relegated.
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Funny thing is they prob still profited. How much in futures on Man U and Chelsea and others do you think they collected?
dont they have strange bets though, where you dont have to pick Arsenal WINNING, but you can just wager that they will finish in the top 4 teams?
The usual group of winners is right at the top 5, essentially.
I wonder how many of these guys had that bet.
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American betting is extremely backward I'm afraid. Probably due to its quasi-legal status. Top-4 is meaningful because it guarantees Champions League football next season and $$$. Missing out on a top-4 placing is a disaster for a big club as it means a huge loss of expected revenue and star players threatening to leave.
that makes sense.
which would lead me to believe that many of the wagers that were placed were for teams to finish in those top 4, and those top teams actually did place where they were predicted to finish at the top, so the books likely lost some good amounts there.
Yes but that was last season. The top four teams at the end of the season were Chelsea, Man City, Arsenal and Man Utd and the bookies would have taken a hammering as those were indeed precisely the teams everyone expected to be in the top four. This season isn't over yet but obviously Leicester and Tottenham are going to be in two of those spots so the top 4 market will have been fantastic for the bookies this time round.
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