***Official UFC 196 Discussion Thread***

[sonatine]

Diaz +380.

I think he has a better shot of pulling upset than almost 4-1. Riding that train to value town.

So pumped for this fight.

Thisville, this is exactly the type of dog anyone who loves money should be picking.

Conor can absolutely maul Diaz, we all know that, but one should stack up on a dog simply on principle when a favored fighter shows up 35 pounds over his normal fight weight against someone with a reach advantage like Diaz, and I'm not even going to get into the fact that if this fight goes to the ground, Diaz instantly becomes a -500 favorite.

No matter what happens tonight, that's the most exploitable line of the year.

[sonatine]

I'm stacked up on Diaz win +400, minor action with Diaz by sub +775, and hedging with Conor wins in rd1 +175 or rd2 +325. If Conor wins in rds 3/4/5 then gg me.

[Hockey Guy]

Conor weighed in at 168 pounds so only 23 not 35 over his normal weight class. I do agree that Nate is a -500 favorite if this fight goes to the mat. He won't be sitting in guard trying to ground & pound & gas himself like Mendes got goaded into doing. He'll be trying to create scrambles & try to lock in a submission(triangle) so he can give the 2 finger salute while putting him to sleep. I think +380 is a great price to put action on Diaz even with a short camp.

It's pretty obvious now that his normal walk around weight is around 170 & not the 180+ I've seen speculated on unless he just decided to cut an extra 2 pounds to fuck with everybody which I guess is possible since it is Conor.

[simpdog]

I like Diaz by sub too. But unfortunately I think Nate is super happy taking in a million and doesn't care about winning or losing.

So he is going to put on a show standing up. Dana likely gave him a standing bonus.

[sonatine]

I like Diaz by sub too. But unfortunately I think Nate is super happy taking in a million and doesn't care about winning or losing.

So he is going to put on a show standing up. Dana likely gave him a standing bonus.

I fucking hate how true this is.

[sonatine]

I lolput minor action on Diaz by TKO at +1430 because I think its quite entirely likely that Diaz could get full mount/take the back and just tee off while whispering "209 motherfucker" like its the last thing Conor will ever hear.

[Shizzmoney]

My leans tonight:

Holm/Tate to go to decision +105

Shevchenko + 130 (now at +105)

and the gambling play of the day:

Diaz by submission +550

[sonatine]

You got in good on Shevchenko, shes -105 on some cards now.

[Crowe Diddly]

Conor weighed in at 168 pounds so only 23 not 35 over his normal weight class.

I wonder what the difference in weights are when he's in the cage. Might end up as 10 lbs or less. This weight class jump isn't really as huge a deal as people make it out to be, its merely a 155 lb fighters where the guys didn't have to cut weight.

[4Dragons]

Conor weighed in at 168 pounds so only 23 not 35 over his normal weight class.

I wonder what the difference in weights are when he's in the cage. Might end up as 10 lbs or less. This weight class jump isn't really as huge a deal as people make it out to be, its merely a 155 lb fighters where the guys didn't have to cut weight.

If you are used to competing at a certain weight, it can really throw off your balance. But on the other end of it, with more mass, Conor will have a hell of a lot more power in those overhand rights.

[sonatine]

wow.

Sat 3/5 1401 Valentina Shevchenko -110
10:00PM 1402 Amanda Nunes +100

[sonatine]

the world hates my diego sanchez play, hes up to +160.

[OSA]

Elkins Skelly fight best prelim fight I seen in a long time.

[simpdog]

any good links?

What's 1channel.net/wiz or something that has been pretty close to HD the last few ufcs?

[DRK Star]

http://wiz1.net/channel1


shhhhhh....

[Buck Nasty]

any good links?

This

[sonatine]

the world hates my diego sanchez play, hes up to +160.

chug it haters.

[NaturalBornHustler]

any good links?

What's 1channel.net/wiz or something that has been pretty close to HD the last few ufcs?

Periscope. List view. Take your pick.

Only a few now but as the main card approaches there will be plenty to choose from.

No need for bullshit streams anymore.

[DJ_Chaps]

Tonights pick from my FB pool. Went with the contrarian pick in the main FTW OBV

Diaz SUB2 (FINGERS IN THE AIR? TRIANGLE) Gamble pick.
Holm TKO3
Anderson TKO3
Nunes UD
Thatch UD
Silva TKO1
Elkins UD
Miller Sub2
POTN - Holm/Silva
FOTN- Elkins/Skelly

[OSA]

Tonights pick from my FB pool. Went with the contrarian pick in the main FTW OBV

Diaz SUB2 (FINGERS IN THE AIR? TRIANGLE) Gamble pick.
Holm TKO3
Anderson TKO3
Nunes UD
Thatch UD
Silva TKO1
Elkins UD
Miller Sub2
POTN - Holm/Silva
FOTN- Elkins/Skelly

Whatever contest this is, if you win, do you get a lifetime supply of cereal and Poland Spring water?