FAO Stock geeks: My NIA type pick for the next while

[Pooh]

Nice google job. You do understand ETE is king of natural gas after this deal, correct? Of course you don't because you read one little article on a company you've never heard of before and decided to post like you know what the fuck is going on. They will be the leader of natural gas exports for the US and it isn't close. Do you have any idea what they pay for natural gas where the cocks are uncut and smelly compared to what we pay here? Of course you don't. Do some more research next time you're at a rest stop and then come back and report.

THIS TRADE WILL TAKE A COUPLE YEARS TO PLAY OUT.

Thank you

Also, I'm aware that US nat gas prices are lower than Europe's and Japan's, but I recall reading a few years ago that the cost of converting and shipping LNG is about $3-$4/MMBtu. And nat gas prices overseas have also tumbled. When it was about $12 in Europe, and about $4 in the US, the profits from exporting LNG would be great. But nearly as much now.



So will the LNG export business suffer like the shale oil plays in the 80's if world energy commodity prices persist in the doldrums for a decade? And will ETE get through that price slump without have to dilute equity?

You understand their revenues are are over 80% fixed contracts correct? Meaning price doesn't matter. They are a toll road with some of the best real estate in the pipeline industry.

And we wish we only had a $6 billion problem. Total debt is more like 40something billion. The $6 billion you quote is only the cash portion of the transaction that is already a done deal with solid rates capped at 5.5%. They have a ton of projects coming on line in 2017 that will help earnings immensely. If they get the go ahead on the Lake Charles project later this year, a huge if, then they will be in the driver's seat for decades. Completion of that project will make this a ten bagger once it's completed.

Not going to lie, there are risks here. We're trading at $8 for a reason. But for a company like this to yield 12% is a gift. It used to yield 3% and investors were happy about it. I think 7% yield would be a reasonable valuation given the uncertainties going forward. That puts us around $16.28 a share. Factor in 20-30% dividend growth rate going forward once/if the market stabilizes and you have my thesis.

We will either be saying great pick or they flew too close to the sun in a couple years.

I forgot to mention. Another major problem is CHK possibly going insolvent. They supply Williams Co. with 20% of their revenues. That is a problem however it is likely that whoever takes over will have to use Williams as they are the only show in town there. Time will tell.

[MumblesBadly]

Also, I'm aware that US nat gas prices are lower than Europe's and Japan's, but I recall reading a few years ago that the cost of converting and shipping LNG is about $3-$4/MMBtu. And nat gas prices overseas have also tumbled. When it was about $12 in Europe, and about $4 in the US, the profits from exporting LNG would be great. But nearly as much now.



So will the LNG export business suffer like the shale oil plays in the 80's if world energy commodity prices persist in the doldrums for a decade? And will ETE get through that price slump without have to dilute equity?

You understand their revenues are are over 80% fixed contracts correct? Meaning price doesn't matter. They are a toll road with some of the best real estate in the pipeline industry.

And we wish we only had a $6 billion problem. Total debt is more like 40something billion. The $6 billion you quote is only the cash portion of the transaction that is already a done deal with solid rates capped at 5.5%. They have a ton of projects coming on line in 2017 that will help earnings immensely. If they get the go ahead on the Lake Charles project later this year, a huge if, then they will be in the driver's seat for decades. Completion of that project will make this a ten bagger once it's completed.

Not going to lie, there are risks here. We're trading at $8 for a reason. But for a company like this to yield 12% is a gift. It used to yield 3% and investors were happy about it. I think 7% yield would be a reasonable valuation given the uncertainties going forward. That puts us around $16.28 a share. Factor in 20-30% dividend growth rate going forward once/if the market stabilizes and you have my thesis.

We will either be saying great pick or they flew too close to the sun in a couple years.

I forgot to mention. Another major problem is CHK possibly going insolvent. They supply Williams Co. with 20% of their revenues. That is a problem however it is likely that whoever takes over will have to use Williams as they are the only show in town there. Time will tell.

I take it back. You've done your homework on this. And the execs *have* recently signaled that they believe they can handle any cash flow challenge by (1) keeping the dividend steady, and (2) announcing some smallish CAPEX cuts.

Overall, it sounds like the stock has been beaten down, and it's price is likely to languish for a few years. So, yeah, it's a longer term play.

Are you planning to load up on more shares if the price drops more?

[Pooh]

You understand their revenues are are over 80% fixed contracts correct? Meaning price doesn't matter. They are a toll road with some of the best real estate in the pipeline industry.

And we wish we only had a $6 billion problem. Total debt is more like 40something billion. The $6 billion you quote is only the cash portion of the transaction that is already a done deal with solid rates capped at 5.5%. They have a ton of projects coming on line in 2017 that will help earnings immensely. If they get the go ahead on the Lake Charles project later this year, a huge if, then they will be in the driver's seat for decades. Completion of that project will make this a ten bagger once it's completed.

Not going to lie, there are risks here. We're trading at $8 for a reason. But for a company like this to yield 12% is a gift. It used to yield 3% and investors were happy about it. I think 7% yield would be a reasonable valuation given the uncertainties going forward. That puts us around $16.28 a share. Factor in 20-30% dividend growth rate going forward once/if the market stabilizes and you have my thesis.

We will either be saying great pick or they flew too close to the sun in a couple years.

I forgot to mention. Another major problem is CHK possibly going insolvent. They supply Williams Co. with 20% of their revenues. That is a problem however it is likely that whoever takes over will have to use Williams as they are the only show in town there. Time will tell.

I take it back. You've done your homework on this. And the execs *have* recently signaled that they believe they can handle any cash flow challenge by (1) keeping the dividend steady, and (2) announcing some smallish CAPEX cuts.

Overall, it sounds like the stock has been beaten down, and it's price is likely to languish for a few years. So, yeah, it's a longer term play.

Are you planning to load up on more shares if the price drops more?

I own 21k shares so my wheel barrel is pretty full with ETE. This is my largest position and it isn't even close. I may sell puts in the future since the volatility has made for some rich premiums but I don't see myself buying more shares...unless they're put to me that is. Will be reinvesting dividends though

[Pooh]

When the spread here https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred...s/BAMLH0A0HYM2 gets over 7% it's a no brainer to invest in high yield like PHT. In the long run you won't lose. You won't get rich but you will make a solid 15% a year including dividends. Sell high yield under 4% spread.

I challenged Krypt to this last weekend but he pussied out which is understandable since he's a retard.

[MumblesBadly]

When the spread here https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred...s/BAMLH0A0HYM2 gets over 7% it's a no brainer to invest in high yield like PHT. In the long run you won't lose. You won't get rich but you will make a solid 15% a year including dividends. Sell high yield under 4% spread.

I challenged Krypt to this last weekend but he pussied out which is understandable since he's a retard.

This trading strategy reminds of something from my post-MBA days. In the early 90s, a fellow MBA buddy of mine used to trade Treasury-linked instruments based on an interest rate range. When the rate moved above a certain level, he's buy, and when it fellow below a certain level, he'd sell. That trading strategy worked great for about a year until interest rates spiked and in about a week he lost all of the gains he made over the last year.

Basically, both of your strategies work as long as things remain "normal", with the ups and downs driven by intracycle variations. But when there is an economic climate change -- and happens unexpected -- the trading strategy can stumble badly. To keep from getting clobbered by those unexpected changes, you need to be ready to abandon the trading strategy when other indicators (which ones is anyone's guess) suggest a high risk of economic regime change.

[handicapme]

When the spread here https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred...s/BAMLH0A0HYM2 gets over 7% it's a no brainer to invest in high yield like PHT. In the long run you won't lose. You won't get rich but you will make a solid 15% a year including dividends. Sell high yield under 4% spread.

I challenged Krypt to this last weekend but he pussied out which is understandable since he's a retard.

Your target should be 7.25% not 7% (sounds retarded over the 25bps, but trust me on this) and also keep me mind where we are in the credit cycle short term pain may hurt... Any HY name trading at 4% yield with greater than 5yr maturity should be sold and proceeds used to purchase other higher yielding product, whatever this name is would be entering IG territory and unless you are 60 and retired, this is a waste of funds.

[Pooh]

When the spread here https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred...s/BAMLH0A0HYM2 gets over 7% it's a no brainer to invest in high yield like PHT. In the long run you won't lose. You won't get rich but you will make a solid 15% a year including dividends. Sell high yield under 4% spread.

I challenged Krypt to this last weekend but he pussied out which is understandable since he's a retard.

This trading strategy reminds of something from my post-MBA days. In the early 90s, a fellow MBA buddy of mine used to trade Treasury-linked instruments based on an interest rate range. When the rate moved above a certain level, he's buy, and when it fellow below a certain level, he'd sell. That trading strategy worked great for about a year until interest rates spiked and in about a week he lost all of the gains he made over the last year.

Basically, both of your strategies work as long as things remain "normal", with the ups and downs driven by intracycle variations. But when there is an economic climate change -- and happens unexpected -- the trading strategy can stumble badly. To keep from getting clobbered by those unexpected changes, you need to be ready to abandon the trading strategy when other indicators (which ones is anyone's guess) suggest a high risk of economic regime change.

I thought you were a truck driver.

[Krypt]

This is all such fraudulent advice it's almost laughable. HY junk will be DESTROYED in the not so distant future.

[Pooh]

How are those LNG calls treating you these days?

[MumblesBadly]

This trading strategy reminds of something from my post-MBA days. In the early 90s, a fellow MBA buddy of mine used to trade Treasury-linked instruments based on an interest rate range. When the rate moved above a certain level, he's buy, and when it fellow below a certain level, he'd sell. That trading strategy worked great for about a year until interest rates spiked and in about a week he lost all of the gains he made over the last year.

Basically, both of your strategies work as long as things remain "normal", with the ups and downs driven by intracycle variations. But when there is an economic climate change -- and happens unexpected -- the trading strategy can stumble badly. To keep from getting clobbered by those unexpected changes, you need to be ready to abandon the trading strategy when other indicators (which ones is anyone's guess) suggest a high risk of economic regime change.

I thought you were a truck driver.

I'm am now. I used to be in finance... For about 20+ years. BS w honors at a decent state school, then real estate syndication, then MBA from a top 40 school, then corporate finance, then doctoral program, then teaching and doing research at some universities. Then grew to hate my career path, and bailed to play poker for a few years. Wasn't good enough to pay all of my bills, went busto, and eventually got into trucking after chatting with a oil field trucker at a poker game. Learned that I love the work, and want to keep at it for as long as my body holds out. But I have a passing interest in the markets and investing.

[Krypt]

Nice call on HY and oil you dumb fucking white trash redneck

[Sanlmar]

Old pal TWTR (buyout) & Marissa Mayer (layoffs etc) are looking for action.

[Sanlmar]

Alphabet Inc.160205P00747500-GOOG-PUT

Just shooting off on some GOOG puts feb 5 expiry

$24.80

Perfectly content if I get killed. Had pretty good day.

[monsterj]

Alphabet Inc.160205P00747500-GOOG-PUT

Just shooting off on some GOOG puts feb 5 expiry

$24.80

Perfectly content if I get killed. Had pretty good day.

Selling or buying? Hedged?

[Tellafriend]

Alphabet Inc.160205P00747500-GOOG-PUT

Just shooting off on some GOOG puts feb 5 expiry

$24.80

Perfectly content if I get killed. Had pretty good day.

Well, that was fun. Throw-up.

[Sanlmar]

Alphabet Inc.160205P00747500-GOOG-PUT

Just shooting off on some GOOG puts feb 5 expiry

$24.80

Perfectly content if I get killed. Had pretty good day.

Selling or buying? Hedged?

Bought 5 contracts.

I thought I'd gamble that results would be more akin to AMZN or AAPL. Just an impulsive shot I took at market close. It was a degen post with potential for good binkage. Absolutely atypical of my boring style.

FOK! I must be BATS, lol. Little order humor.

I actually don't feel bad about it this morning.

Edit: straight the fuck down. Folks cashing out into strength. Daytraded short since 11:30 Next bounce I will consider a longer term short.

If we go flat and recession gets more real the flight to value will return to AAPL, AMZN & Alphabet. But we are several steps ahead of ourselves

[Sanlmar]

Lol got out of those options @ 24.10

Coulda bought puts last night at $3 and sold at $25 today.

GOOG was the greatest short these past few days. It's all over now. Market jammin

Never seen anything like this.

[Tellafriend]

Lol got out of those options @ 24.10

Coulda bought puts last night at $3 and sold at $25 today.

GOOG was the greatest short these past few days. It's all over now. Market jammin

Never seen anything like this.

Regarding your last sentence, what then do you make of it? Why is this happening?

[simpdog]

Lol got out of those options @ 24.10

Coulda bought puts last night at $3 and sold at $25 today.

GOOG was the greatest short these past few days. It's all over now. Market jammin

Never seen anything like this.

Day late, dollar short. Glad to hear you got out relatively unscathed.

Continuing to buy some energy/mining/oil type shit along with some Canadian banks. Can't go wrong with banks on this side of the border. They took a haircut from Nov-> January but will be back up to their highs by the summer (as long as we don't have a catastrophic event).

Banks just keep raising fees and the general public doesn't flock to thrifty type banks. They prefer to pay for CEO's 7 figure salaries and tons of employees earning 6 figures located in ultra expensive high-rises in Toronto/Vancouver.

[Sanlmar]

Lol got out of those options @ 24.10

Coulda bought puts last night at $3 and sold at $25 today.

GOOG was the greatest short these past few days. It's all over now. Market jammin

Never seen anything like this.

Regarding your last sentence, what then do you make of it? Why is this happening?

I actually don't know what this last move was. (Oil pop) You could just see the reversal midday.

Goog was acting like AAPL & AmZN after earnings. Kinda great reports (you can nit) and folks cashing out after great runs. Money just comin out of these names and market.

GOOG. I don't know why folks don't watch after hours charts during earnings call. It is like a lie detector polygraph. When CFO/CEO hits a talking point you see the stock respond.

You get a good glimpse as to market sentiment regarding stocks issues for next day or two