*** Official Flying Stupidity Wagering thread ***

[Brittney Griner's Clit]

Sorry on Minnesota Druff. Shoulda been OT

College

2nd half unc/Maryland under 80
Unc -3

[Dan Druff]

Last 2 days have been really frustrating, with TWO teams storming back from huge deficits, only to blow it at the end. First OKC, then Minnesota.

Anyway...

Golden State -9 at Charlotte - Hornets are without Al Jefferson. They barely beat crappy Milwaukee the other day. This should be an easier one for the Warriors than the tough and tenacious Utah team they just faced.

San Antonio vs. Milwaukee Under 189.5 - Last 3 games, Bucks scored 90, 82, 74. San Antonio has allowed just 89.8 points per game this year! I predict this stifling defense will keep the score low.

Washington -10 vs. Lakers - Both teams played yesterday. Wizards surprised Cleveland and beat them, while the Lakers allowed 0-18 Philly to beat them by double digits. I think the Lakers are going to get killed here, back-to-back on the road.


Just bet SA/Mil Under 190 -115 on Bovada, as well as Washington -10

Bovada has GS -9.5 -105 so I think I will hold off on that one, as most books have it as -9 right now.

[Brittney Griner's Clit]

Ha ha. Both chasing same shit.

Literally just took wash and lakers first half all in before clicking thread.

Not even looking at rest unless I win.

[Dan Druff]

Here is my theory on first half bets over/under, with no data to back it up:

I think that first half under bets are usually superior to full game under bets IF the two teams are fairly evenly matched, and IF the first half line is equal or better than half the full game line.

This is because evenly matched teams are both more likely to go to OT and have intentional fouling at the end, and these factors are bad for under bets.

The converse is also true. So if you're making an over bet, it's better to bet full game in the case where the teams are fairly evenly matched.

At the same time, if the under bet is on a lopsided matchup, I think it's inconclusive whether it's better to go with first half or the full game. Your under bet won't get screwed by trash time (where often the score runs up due to lack of defense), but you also have an advantage where the winning team will hold the ball during the final 24 seconds -- something that has saved my unders many a time.

But basically if I'm going with an under and if the teams are fairly evenly matched, I am taking the first half unless the line is bad compared to the full game total.

[BeerAndPoker]

I took Warriors -9.5 but think it's nuts they are still only -13.5 in live betting with a 28-15 lead with 4:20 left in the first quarter. That seems too amazing that if I wasn't already on them for all I'm willing to bet this game I'd be going firing on that.

[simpdog]

I took Warriors -9.5 but think it's nuts they are still only -13.5 in live betting with a 28-15 lead with 4:20 left in the first quarter. That seems too amazing that if I wasn't already on them for all I'm willing to bet this game I'd be going firing on that.

Keep in mind they will rest their starters quite a bit if they have a 15+ pt lead.

Also keep in mind in the first quarter they were making retarded 3's from everywhere. They will slow a bit.

[BeerAndPoker]

I took Warriors -9.5 but think it's nuts they are still only -13.5 in live betting with a 28-15 lead with 4:20 left in the first quarter. That seems too amazing that if I wasn't already on them for all I'm willing to bet this game I'd be going firing on that.

Keep in mind they will rest their starters quite a bit if they have a 15+ pt lead.

Also keep in mind in the first quarter they were making retarded 3's from everywhere. They will slow a bit.

I agree they will be resting starters up but they might have a 30 point lead when that happens so if I didn't bet the Warriors already I would take them at what essentially is Warriors .5 for the last 3.33 quarters of play vs. an improved but average NBA team.

[chinamaniac]

Have a feeling the HORNETS will win this

[Dan Druff]

Have a feeling the HORNETS will win this

Warriors came out stomping them, but let them back in the game. 60-51 at halftime

Lakers somehow took like a 16 point lead, but it's down to 6 at the half. Still not looking great for -10 for Washington, though I think they will win. Hard to ever count out a team against the Lakers, though. They were up 8 against Philly yesterday at halftime and lost by more than 10.

Right now the books are forecasting the Warriors to win by 12 and the Wizards to win by 4.

[Dan Druff]

Golden State going to easily cover, Wizards going to NOT cover, and San Antonio under slightly behind, but could go either way.

[Brittney Griner's Clit]

Amazing how many Kobe fans turned up in D.C. tonight. Louder cheers when he makes a shot than when the home team makes a shot.

[Dan Druff]

Going to sell high on Orlando.

Utah -4 tonight in Utah

They almost beat Golden State. Let that sink in. This team has had a pretty tough schedule so far, and has looked better as the season has gone on. They have beaten Atlanta, Memphis, Toronto, Clippers, and almost Golden State. Among their 8 losses were Golden State, Cleveland, OKC, Miami, and Dallas.

Bovada has a LOL -115 right now, so I'm going to wait out betting on it. Line has trended downward after starting 5.5, so I think it might fall a bit more anyway.

Post #15000

[Brittney Griner's Clit]

Good luck. Good luck. Orlando is one of my pet teams so I struggle to bet against them. The line is moving in your direction because Utahs starting center Gobert is out. He's pretty important to that team.

[Dan Druff]

Good luck. Good luck. Orlando is one of my pet teams so I struggle to bet against them. The line is moving in your direction because Utahs starting center Gobert is out. He's pretty important to that team.

It doesn't say Gobert is out on the site I check (scoresandodds.com).

But you're right: http://espn.go.com/nba/player/_/id/3032976/rudy-gobert

Good thing you posted that. I won't bet it now.

[Brittney Griner's Clit]

Good luck. Good luck. Orlando is one of my pet teams so I struggle to bet against them. The line is moving in your direction because Utahs starting center Gobert is out. He's pretty important to that team.

It doesn't say Gobert is out on the site I check (scoresandodds.com).

But you're right: http://espn.go.com/nba/player/_/id/3032976/rudy-gobert

Good thing you posted that. I won't bet it now.

Well do what you want. I am pretty sure the initial line that went up was knowing he was out and the betters think hes more important than Vegas. I'd rather not block your win. I've been running pretty cold.

Bet kings and kings under last night. Don't know if it's good bet or not because I normally don't like betting against the guys haralabob says are good coaches.

[Brittney Griner's Clit]

Also, interestingly enough the site I go also does not have it. I guess it's already old news???

http://www.rotoworld.com/headlines/n...ball-Headlines

I just happened to read the little pregame write up on the game after you posted.

[Daly]

The packers are professionals at giving up TD to Tight Ends.

Ebron is in the doghouse and is seeing the field less and less.


Brandon Pettigrew +2500
Header: Packers @ Lions - Player to score the first touchdown in the game - All players are action
Risk/Win: $100.00/$2,500.00

Brandon Pettigrew +1200
Header: Packers @ Lions - Player to score the Lions first touchdown in the game - All players are action
Risk/Win: $100/$1200

[Dan Druff]

Toronto down 12 at home vs. Denver in the 2nd.

Possible halftime bet.

[chinamaniac]

GB Blows, I hope they lose by 70

[Brittney Griner's Clit]

Steph Curry is the NioNio of basketball



http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/...he-revolution/