*** Official Flying Stupidity Wagering thread ***

[Sanlmar]

The Cubs are the talk of the town.


Let that sink in

Cubs are for real. I need to adopt a team this year. Cubs are too trendy for my taste tho.

[lewfather]

if you have Tunein radio, am670 the score, chicago sports radio, is a meltdown for the ages.

I have heard rumors of harbaugh to chitown but even these dudes think he's going to michigan.

i find it difficult to believe he would leave pros after making it to the superbowl and losing to his brother. plus its not like teams in the nfl wouldnt want him.

[Hockey Guy]

The Maloofs dont own the kings anymore

On May 16, 2013, the Maloof family reached agreement to sell the Sacramento Kings to a group led by Silicon Valley tech entrepreneur Vivek Ranadivé for a record NBA franchise valuation of $535 million.

The Kings were sold & moved to Seattle. tony bagadonuts assured me this was a done deal way back in 2012.

[Dan Druff]

Dallas/NY - Under 202 - Public loves this one. Line has moved from 204. Dallas scores a lot of points, but New York has scored fewer than 100 in regulation in 12 of their past 14 games, including a few under 80. Not quite as good as the Boston/Philly under of yesterday (which I sadly didn't bet), but I still see this one going under. New York also played an OT game yesterday and might be tired. I am not taking the Dallas spread because NY has played better teams fairly tough when at home.

Oklahoma City/Sacramento - Under 206.5 - Sacramento has scored few points since Cousins went out. In 5 of their past 6 games, they scored 96 or fewer in regulation. OKC has scored over 110 in their last two games, but against teams with very poor defense. Sac has allowed fewer than 100 points against them in 6 of their past 8.

[Dan Druff]

Dallas/NY is off the board on Bovada, as are two other games. This one specifically is off because Parsons may be out for Dallas.

Bet 735 to win 700 on OKC/Sac Under 206

Watch for halftime bets tonight.

Specifically, watch for halftime blowouts at Min/Was and Sac/OKC, and bet on the team getting blown out if line is reasonable.

If either Min or Sac is winning at halftime, it's probably good to fire on the home team, but I'll have to see the lines to see if I like them.

[Dan Druff]

You know what, I'm gonna add OKC -8 at Sac to this.

Sac has looked sooooooooooo bad without Cousins, and in fact just fired their coach (as discussed here).

Gotta think that a resurgent OKC (healthy, and looking to move up the tough Western Conference playoff spot ladder) is going to crush them.

[Gordman]

I really appreciate this info and your opinions Druff. I have pretty much zero skills in sportsbetting as it is, so I am following along (when I have time)

[Gordman]

Dallas/NY - Under 202 - Public loves this one. Line has moved from 204. Dallas scores a lot of points, but New York has scored fewer than 100 in regulation in 12 of their past 14 games, including a few under 80. Not quite as good as the Boston/Philly under of yesterday (which I sadly didn't bet), but I still see this one going under. New York also played an OT game yesterday and might be tired. I am not taking the Dallas spread because NY has played better teams fairly tough when at home.

Oklahoma City/Sacramento - Under 206.5 - Sacramento has scored few points since Cousins went out. In 5 of their past 6 games, they scored 96 or fewer in regulation. OKC has scored over 110 in their last two games, but against teams with very poor defense. Sac has allowed fewer than 100 points against them in 6 of their past 8.

so, the line moved from 206.5 to 206... im assuming that is still good enough to take the under?

[Gordman]

now it looks like it just moved to 207

[Dan Druff]

People like to bash the public money and say that the public are idiots, but when the line moves a good deal, usually the side moving it is right.

The line is now 208 on the Sac game, so I wouldn't touch it anymore. I no longer like my bet as much for that reason alone.

Small line movements don't mean anything. However, I haven't seen many games where the line moves a ton in the opposite direction and you still win.

[Gordman]

People like to bash the public money and say that the public are idiots, but when the line moves a good deal, usually the side moving it is right.

The line is now 208 on the Sac game, so I wouldn't touch it anymore. I no longer like my bet as much for that reason alone.

Small line movements don't mean anything. However, I haven't seen many games where the line moves a ton in the opposite direction and you still win.

crap. Made one bet when it was at 207, and then said screw it and bet some more when it hit 208. Oh well, i guess ill learn the hard way if i lose.

At the risk of sounding like an inexperienced idiot, my question in my head is - what do they know that the public doesn't know? but i guess there is a reason why they are the ones moving the lines, because they know what they are doing...

[Dan Druff]

People like to bash the public money and say that the public are idiots, but when the line moves a good deal, usually the side moving it is right.

The line is now 208 on the Sac game, so I wouldn't touch it anymore. I no longer like my bet as much for that reason alone.

Small line movements don't mean anything. However, I haven't seen many games where the line moves a ton in the opposite direction and you still win.

crap. Made one bet when it was at 207, and then said screw it and bet some more when it hit 208. Oh well, i guess ill learn the hard way if i lose.

At the risk of sounding like an inexperienced idiot, my question in my head is - what do they know that the public doesn't know? but i guess there is a reason why they are the ones moving the lines, because they know what they are doing...

The books' goals are to get an even amount of money on both sides, so they have a risk-free profit.

They move the line when disproportionate money goes on one side, hoping to lure in people who were staying away because the line was too low.

What does the "public money" know? Well, the public money is basically an aggregate of all money bet. So if there's a disproportionate number of people leaning one way, usually there's a reason for it -- and that reason is because the line was poorly set.

So why not jump on the line once it's been "corrected" by movement? Because often it's still not correct, but has just moved a few points due to the lopsided betting. So maybe the correct line should have been 211 here, which means Over 206 is a great bet, and 208 is still very good. I don't know. I liked the under 206, but admittedly not nearly as much as the under for Boston/Philly last night, which was perplexing in how high it was. I don't like making "star" picks because that degrades the value of your other picks, but maybe I'll start separating which ones I REALLY like and which ones I just like.

[Daly]

Dallas/NY - Under 202 - Public loves this one. Line has moved from 204. Dallas scores a lot of points, but New York has scored fewer than 100 in regulation in 12 of their past 14 games, including a few under 80. Not quite as good as the Boston/Philly under of yesterday (which I sadly didn't bet), but I still see this one going under. New York also played an OT game yesterday and might be tired. I am not taking the Dallas spread because NY has played better teams fairly tough when at home.

Oklahoma City/Sacramento - Under 206.5 - Sacramento has scored few points since Cousins went out. In 5 of their past 6 games, they scored 96 or fewer in regulation. OKC has scored over 110 in their last two games, but against teams with very poor defense. Sac has allowed fewer than 100 points against them in 6 of their past 8.

Sorry in advance. I tailed both as I have nothing else that looks decent tonight.

[Dan Druff]

I just went with Under 204 -115 (805 to win 700) on Dallas/NY

[Brittney Griner's Clit]

Dan druff. Read a thing where teams always cover with new coach. Like dramatic numbers. I think it will go opposite tonight.

Also read kings new owner wants run and gun rez ball. With a cherry picker streaking down court after opponents shots or even as far as a guy hanging at half court.

If they actually make Corbin implement this it could end 120-105 okc.

So funny this guy is an Indian with a dot and he has the same basketball philosophy as every Indian with a feather team ive ever played against growing up.

I'm not giving up my malone personally offended owners with a behind the scenes fuck up but with this new news that the owner wants a dramatically different and unheard of in the nba basketball style that Malone refused to implement makes me think you are probably right.

[Brittney Griner's Clit]

Holy shit. I just thought of something. If vivek forces Corbin to keep running this style Cousins will get a triple double every other game.

[Dan Druff]

Dan druff. Read a thing where teams always cover with new coach. Like dramatic numbers. I think it will go opposite tonight.

Also read kings new owner wants run and gun rez ball. With a cherry picker streaking down court after opponents shots or even as far as a guy hanging at half court.

If they actually make Corbin implement this it could end 120-105 okc.

So funny this guy is an Indian with a dot and he has the same basketball philosophy as every Indian with a feather team ive ever played against growing up.

I'm not giving up my malone personally offended owners with a behind the scenes fuck up but with this new news that the owner wants a dramatically different and unheard of in the nba basketball style that Malone refused to implement makes me think you are probably right.

Well I'm not betting on it anyway right now because the Bovada line sucks balls.

I have watched so many Sac games and seen how awful they were, to the point where OKC (who is really hot and now healthy) seems like they will crush them.

[Dan Druff]

Fired 880 to win 800 on NO -8 2nd half.

They are at home and down 3 at the half to Utah.

Almost fired over 100 2nd half on Was/Min but chickened out, and it easily covered.

[Brittney Griner's Clit]

Fired 880 to win 800 on NO -8 2nd half.

They are at home and down 3 at the half to Utah.

Almost fired over 100 2nd half on Was/Min but chickened out, and it easily covered.

Are you watching sac okc? On pace to land on my number

[Gordman]

well, okc/sac doesnt look like they are going to hit the under of total points - unless im wrong

If they don't im going to be pissed and going to have to fuck her right in the pussy!