Bitcoins are officially donkdown

[Belly Buster]

Honestly why not accept puka shells and pickled human ears as well?

Wasn't it tulip bulbs or some crazy thing back in the day with that huge bubble? The modern equivalent would be beanie babies

Tulip bulbs were one of the first derivative traded items. This was because the bulbs were seasonal and therefore a futures market was established which meant that the "bulbs" were traded without a physical exchange of goods; effectively it was a paper contract to buy (or sell) the bulbs when they were in season. The lack of physical exchange made the trading easier and therefore was more susceptible to rapid swings in price (rapid being relative for the 1600s).

Without the benefit of history, it is easy to see how speculators got carried away as values continued to rise, assuming that greater returns would follow. Only when the market ran out of buyers did the realisation quickly set in the price collapsed to virtually nothing in one single day.

[Belly Buster]

Orignial Thread Title: bitcoins are officially donk down.

Original Date: 05-15-2013

Thread started by: sonatine.



good read fat boy.

Original title BACK. Even though bitcoins are not donkdown officially.

[vegas1369]

Steadily falling most of the day. Down to $617 ATM.

[GambleBotsChafedPenis]

like when the s&p starts the inevitable bedshit in 2014.

US GDP was up 4.1% in Q3.

yes that is precisely the reason the s&p500 is up 20% on the year, it's because Q3 GDP was up 4.1% and not the massive printing of the federal reserve...good call...

[Sanlmar]

Trying to call the top is a fools game - and I am guilty here.

My current paranoia is that people are using this as a tax haven - like an old time Swiss bank account. There aren't enough Bitcoins to accommodate real wealth and this could jack BTC to the moon.

The Lifecycle of a Bubble
Thought this chart was interesting. Do the fingerprints match?

We posted the archetypal bubble stages chart on 11/30 when Bitcoin was $1200

Forbes has some late breaking news.

Bitcoin May Be Following This Classic Bubble Stages Chart
http://www.forbes.com/sites/jessecol...-stages-chart/

Thought this writer's point was actually to promote his global economic crisis prediction as our huge financial run up since 2008/2009 corrects.

I plan to eventually take a position in Bitcoin (in addition to precious metals and other hard assets) for my portfolio as a hedge against an eventual global economic crisis that I foresee occurring due to the popping of numerous post-2009 economic bubbles as well as the ensuing debasement of currencies that would occur as a reaction to this economic crisis. For now, I am waiting for the current froth to blow over before buying in.

Gamblebot has found a friend. I agree a correction is due and will be alert to it. Look at 10 year AAPL chart. Look like BTC? I don't give a crap about Apple per se. Just an ugly chart and prolly says something about their situation.

[GambleBotsChafedPenis]

just look at any weekly charts of the momentum stocks...FB/TWTR/TSLA/NFLX/DDD/etc...

I mean when companies like TWTR and FB can have their valuations flux 15-20% IN A WEEK something is fucked up...

this market is totally devoid of fundamentals...

hedgies have been underperforming the market all year and it's been a catch-up game since mid summer...once these guys stop chasing performance and the fed pulls the crack cocaine from the drug addict the market is going to be in serious trouble...when that happens, don't know...don't trade a long enough time horizon to know, but did sell some JUN SP calls as a speculative play...

anyway back to bitcoin talk...

[sonatine]

im not a finance guy by any means but i dont get hedging on a commodity with literally no backing.

[GambleBotsChafedPenis]

im not a finance guy by any means but i dont get hedging on a commodity with literally no backing.

what are you hedging bitcoins with? there isn't anything to hedge it with...I cant imagine there is anything that is nearly inversely correlated with it enough to hedge...you could make the argument to hedge it with USDs because as the value of the USD goes down due to printing, bitcoins should increase because there are a finite number; but I think it'd be a helluva flimsy hedge...

[Rick O'Shea]

like when the s&p starts the inevitable bedshit in 2014.

US GDP was up 4.1% in Q3.

Throwing numbers, endless.

"GDP per capita allows you to compare the prosperity of countries with different population sizes. For example, U.S. GDP was $15.66 trillion in 2012, making it seem the most prosperous country in the world. However, one reason for America's prosperity is because it's the third most populous country (after China and India). The U.S. must spread its wealth among 317 million people. That makes its GDP per capita only $49,800, the 12th most prosperous country per person."

[donkdowndonedied]

im not a finance guy by any means but i dont get hedging on a commodity with literally no backing.

what are you hedging bitcoins with? there isn't anything to hedge it with...I cant imagine there is anything that is nearly inversely correlated with it enough to hedge...you could make the argument to hedge it with USDs because as the value of the USD goes down due to printing, bitcoins should increase because there are a finite number; but I think it'd be a helluva flimsy hedge...

You are hedging with the global demand for an alternative currency.

The need for an alternative currency is numerous.

Microtransaction world, where we can start to REALLY monetize the net.
Finances that are not seizeable (sp?)
Payment system that is international. (this is great for Americans, hamstrung by all that "anti-laundering" bullshit)
Currency that is not pegged to 1 country.
Currency that can not be inflated by government policy.
You benefit from citizens of other countries being fucked over by their own currency. They'll pump up/adopt BTC.
etc

... I could go on, but I'm drunk and should not be posting here.

I am happy to accumulate BTC or similar altcurrencies and forgo stock market at this point in my life.

My downside is so small compared to my upside.

Months ago, Corrigan said something about irrational market taking forever. BTC is not irrational, it just has no historical basis for valuation.

Apple is 50x btc market capitalization.

I'll stick with altcurrencies for now. Shit is fun.

Dumb people are scared of new things.

But call it a bubble if you wish.

[Sanlmar]

DDDD,

My downside is so small compared to my upside.

That's quite a statement!

BTC may also be a cancer cure. Doesn't matter. The chart tells you what it is. All that shit is baked into the price you see. Bitcoin has the same utility at $10 as it does at $1000. There are no fundamentals that support it's price. It price simply is what the market says it is.

If this thing double tops at $700 you could see another leg down.

My feeling is that before this thing can rebound to new heights - or even it's old glory - it needs to re-test $475 - $500 and rebound to prove it can hold that level and appease fears of a collapse.

I see this thing finally settling in at $300. But that's pretty far away.

So right now upside potential +$85 with serious resistance at $700. Downside potential -$125 or much worse.

That is not +EV. Near term.

My main point is that what we know about Bitcoin utility and the new world order is already baked in. It's just trading now homie.

Unless you have inside knowledge that Satoshi Nakamoto is about to release lemon scented Bitcoins.

[sonatine]

You are hedging with the global demand for an alternative currency.

[sonatine]

thats literally like saying you might get fucked in a whorehouse because everyone wants to get pussy.

[DRK Star]

I could understand bitcoins having some worth due to their ability to let people do transactions anonymously and also electronically with little to no fees (but that would also depend on exchanges).

[sonatine]

Lack of transaction fees is great, Im sure that will come in really handy once the government admits it has no right to tax everything all the time.

I mean seriously. People arent concerned BTC-E is run by euro crime gangs, people are rock solid positive it is. And yet its what, the third biggest exchange?

By the time bitcoins become a pragmatic addition to peoples daily lives, they will be taxed, charged, and tracked more than the dollar.

[Sanlmar]

I could understand bitcoins having some worth due to their ability to let people do transactions anonymously and also electronically with little to no fees (but that would also depend on exchanges).

Except, how do I accumulate Bitcoins. Right now, I pay a fee to gather them.

If I am a salary man am I being paid in Bitcoins like Micon? If I am a merchant then I guess I'm loving the fee free lifestyle.

PayPal, Visa, BOA, etc are feeing us to death. So whoever gains traction in market first will be embraced by guys like me. But Bitcoins crazy gyrations is the very thing that will kill its chances.

It's all just theoretical now. Nothing to do with current valuation. In the grand scheme of things, no one is using them.

[sonatine]

I could understand bitcoins having some worth due to their ability to let people do transactions anonymously and also electronically with little to no fees (but that would also depend on exchanges).

Except, how do I accumulate Bitcoins. Right now, I pay a fee to gather them.

If I am a salary man am I being paid in Bitcoins like Micon? If I am a merchant then I guess I'm loving the fee free lifestyle.

PayPal, Visa, BOA, etc are feeing us to death. So whoever gains traction in market first will be embraced by guys like me. But Bitcoins crazy gyrations is the very thing that will kill its chances.

It's all just theoretical now. Nothing to do with current valuation. In the grand scheme of things, no one is using them.

I would genuinely like to see a crypto currency take off but its going to need to have the support of an actual nation state behind it to happen. And it could happen. Like seriously, if some Baltic republic implodes and all they have are some goats, a bank, and an abandoned Soviet military base filled with computers, they _could_ mine their own crypto currency and sell them at a reasonably fixed rate through their own state sanctioned banks. By controlling inflation centrally the coins could be used to pay wages and exchange for goods, so on.

I mean thats a 12:05am and Im drunk example but you get the idea.

Short of that tho, this libertarian anarchist bullshit is guaranteed to be denied a seat at the table, 100 times out of 100. It will remain a great way to pay for drugs and stolen IDs and botnets, for a while. Beyond that... I mean..

[Sanlmar]

Stolichnaya fueled Latvia collapse scenario.

You won't remember this tomorrow.

[BeerAndPoker]

[lewfather]

I know everyone makes the point that who would ever want to run a business that accepts bitcoins knowing how quickly the prices change but I was wondering about insurance etc if you are hoarding coins as a business and you either lose them to a hacking or say the hard drive you have the wallet on goes donkdown then you're just completely fucked? Is there a way to insure the coin? I'm sure someone has thought of this before but was just curious.