Quote Originally Posted by Walter Sobchak View Post
Quote Originally Posted by Pooh View Post
Not sure how many people here invest in the market or follow the economy. I've been following it for about 15 years and find it very interesting. I'm more or less a buy and hold dollar cost average investor so I will continue to invest regardless of what will happen in the future.

I predict the market will tank like nobodys business once they announce the big bad taper. We haven't had a 10% correction now in over a year which is unheard of. We're at the point now where the market actually goes down if there are strong economic numbers. Today was a great example.

I predict close to a 20% correction once they announce a reduction of QE. I also believe it will be a quick 20%..probably over the course of two months. After that I see the market rising to new heights, provided the economy sustains.

I don't believe 2014 will be an overall positive year in the markets especially given the past two years.


+1

In non-taxable accounts I hold solid blue chip dividend-paying stocks with automatic reinvestment, a few funds for diversification, and a few high grade corporate bonds. In taxable accounts I hold high grade munis and treasuries, the market price of which I don't care about because I don't want to sell them, I want them to generate income so I can buy more. There is no special strategy that outperforms the market in the long term except what Einstein called the magic of compound interest (automatic reinvestment). People sometimes beat the market with a given strategy (a.k.a. a gamble) but it is mathematically proven that this is largely luck, like that Black Swan guy who made a huge gamble and happened to win and now people foolishly buy his books thinking he knows some secret about the market. There is no need to try to predict the short term or care what happens in the short term except that if you have spare cash laying around you should buy on dips. If you have serious amounts of cash like Warren Buffet then a different set of opportunities opens up for you and you can beat the market--like when Buffet lent billions to Goldman in the form of preferred stocks with a guaranteed dividend. For most of us though, just sit tight and let it accumulate, and get more conservative as you get older. Easy game.

Oh and LOL @ gold.
I don't think beating the market is largely luck. I have been doing it for 15+ years. I buy stocks that people hate and sell/short stocks that people love. I was long the housing stocks when they were in the dumps and when PLOL came on this site and said LEN was his #1 pick...it was pretty much a CMONEY type of lock that they would tank. Right now everyone hates gold, silver, and the mining stocks. Even those who preached for years about gold hate it. I am loading up huge on the mining stocks right now: NEM, RGLD, ABX, GG, SLW. Why? Because everyone hates them. I am expecting them to rally 50-100% across the board and then I will sell them. Might take several months but I am patient.